That said, a couple of things
November 9, 2016 6 Comments
Soon, I’m just going to take a benzo and go to bed, but I did feel compelled to share a few good demographic snippets from 538 tonight:
1) Damn, those non-college whites. This chart is the story, as far as I’m concerned.
2) And, this, I find just shocking. Okay, I get understand Black voters dropping off a little from Obama, but Hispanics??
There’s going to be a lot of talk about white voters after the election, but looking at the exit polls, that’s not the full story. A big part of the story is that Clinton underperformed Obama with blacks and Hispanics. Clinton is winning only 88 percent of the black vote. Exit polls in 2012 had Obama at 93 percent. Clinton is only at 65 percent among Latinos. Obama won 71 percent of them.
3) Damn, that education gap among white people– especially white women!
But a deeper dive into exit poll numbers reveals something pretty fascinating, which is a split in the vote of college-educated white women and non-college-educated white women.
TRUMP CLINTON MARGIN Non-college white men 72% 23% T+49 Non-college white women 62 34 T+28 College white men 54 39 T+15 College white women 45 51 C+6 Gender and education College-educated white women voted for Clinton 51 percent to 45 percent, but non-college-educated white women voted for Trump 62 percent to 34 percent. That difference is nothing but stark and something we saw inklings of in October, when I wrote about how many Republican women were willing to overlook Trump’s history of sexual harassment allegations and derogatory comments about women. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.
4) This tweet:
5) I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the nature of modern partisanship and how it is seemingly overwhelmingly cultural/identity politics these days. It would seem Democrats really need to change this dynamic. A longer post on that to come.
About Steve Greene
Fully Myelinated 
Oh well, loss for words. Hang in there!
I told you Donald Trump would win. You can not underestimate the short-sightedness and historical ignorance of half the country.
So, here’s how the death spiral happens:
Russia and China will act quickly to peel their neighbors away from the US/Western sphere of influence. They will build the narrative that the US is an unstable, irrational and short-sighted nation that cannot be trusted to respond sensibly or reliably in the future. Southeast Asian countries will follow the lead of the Philippines. Next, Saudi Arabia and other oil countries that have been concerned about their status and economic prospects will sidle up to China and Russia. Pakistan and will swing that way too. Turkey? Probably. Iran –always on the lookout for dinging the US. Developing countries in Africa, and troubled economic in South America? The isolationist rhetoric, declining economic status, and erratic character of the US makes Russia and China look more helpful and better suited to helping those countries.
The upshot is that the US will be viewed as the governing equivalent of a banana republic, a story that will be championed by Russia and China. Our symbolic, economic, and political is greatly diminished. And the belief that we are capable will be sensible, reliable, and strategic thinking in the future is suspect.
Sour grapes wishful thinking.
Why would anyone wish this on the US? Oh yeah, people who voted for Trump.
And here is the first of many setbacks for the US. Guess who is going to be setting the economic and trade agendas for years or decades to come? Hint, not us. Thanks Republicans.
“China will seek support for a Beijing-led Asia-Pacific free trade area at a regional summit in Peru later this month, Chinese officials said on Thursday, after Donald Trump’s U.S. election win dashed hopes for a U.S.-led free trade pact. … Obama had framed TPP, which excluded China, as an effort to write Asia’s trade rules before Beijing could, establishing U.S. economic leadership in the region as part of his ‘pivot to Asia’.”
One of the few advantages we have is that China and Russia do not even pay lip service to caring about human rights, democratic norms, the environment, or opposing corruption. I don’t think their recent foray into Africa worked out very well for them. We may look better by comparison for a while.
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