That said, a couple of things
November 9, 2016 5 Comments
Soon, I’m just going to take a benzo and go to bed, but I did feel compelled to share a few good demographic snippets from 538 tonight:
1) Damn, those non-college whites. This chart is the story, as far as I’m concerned.
2) And, this, I find just shocking. Okay, I get understand Black voters dropping off a little from Obama, but Hispanics??
There’s going to be a lot of talk about white voters after the election, but looking at the exit polls, that’s not the full story. A big part of the story is that Clinton underperformed Obama with blacks and Hispanics. Clinton is winning only 88 percent of the black vote. Exit polls in 2012 had Obama at 93 percent. Clinton is only at 65 percent among Latinos. Obama won 71 percent of them.
3) Damn, that education gap among white people– especially white women!
But a deeper dive into exit poll numbers reveals something pretty fascinating, which is a split in the vote of college-educated white women and non-college-educated white women.
TRUMP CLINTON MARGIN Non-college white men 72% 23% T+49 Non-college white women 62 34 T+28 College white men 54 39 T+15 College white women 45 51 C+6 Gender and education
College-educated white women voted for Clinton 51 percent to 45 percent, but non-college-educated white women voted for Trump 62 percent to 34 percent. That difference is nothing but stark and something we saw inklings of in October, when I wrote about how many Republican women were willing to overlook Trump’s history of sexual harassment allegations and derogatory comments about women. Partisanship is a hell of a drug.
4) This tweet:
5) I’ve been doing a lot of thinking about the nature of modern partisanship and how it is seemingly overwhelmingly cultural/identity politics these days. It would seem Democrats really need to change this dynamic. A longer post on that to come.