I think one of the most interesting aspects coming out of the exit polls in last week's election is that they have so thoroughly validated the theory laid out in John Judis and Ruy Texeira's 2002 book, The Emerging Democratic Majority. Basically, they argue that the demographic portions of the electorate that are growing the most are the same ones that are increasingly becoming Democratic. Republicans, in contrast, fare best among the ever shrinking portion of America that is white people in non-professional occupations. One of my favorite aspects of the book is that they actually feature the Raleigh-Durham area as an “ideopolis” which typifies the changes in the electorate. Here's Judis in a TNR piece after the election:
The new Democratic realignment reflects the
shift that began decades ago toward a post-industrial economy centered
in large urban-suburban metropolitan areas devoted primarily to the
production of ideas and services rather than material goods. (In The Emerging Democratic Majority,
Ruy Teixeira and I called these places “ideopolises.”) Clustered in the
regions that have undergone this economic transition are the three main
groups that constitute the backbone of the new Democratic majority:
professionals (college-educated workers who produce ideas and
services); minorities (African Americans, Latinos, and Asian
Americans); and women (particularly working, single, and
college-educated women).
As late as the
1950s, professionals were the most Republican of all occupational
groupings, but they were also relatively small in number–about 7
percent of the labor force. Today, professionals (who are the brains,
so to speak, of the new post-industrial economy) make up 20 percent of
the labor force and are a quarter or more of the electorate in many
northern and western states. They range from nurses to teachers to TV
producers to software programmers to engineers. They began voting
Democratic in 1988 and have continued to do so ever since.
Using
census data, Teixeira and I calculated that, between 1988 and 2000,
professionals voted for the Democratic presidential candidate by an
average of 52 to 40 percent. I don't know exactly what percentage of
professionals voted for Obama this week because exit polls don't
include professionals as a category. Still, as an approximation, I can
use a somewhat smaller (and maybe even slightly more conservative)
group: people with advanced degrees. Obama won these voters by a
whopping 58 to 40 percent. He even won college graduates as a whole, 50
to 48 percent. (It may be the first time that a Democrat has ever
accomplished this. In 1996, for instance, Clinton, even while beating
Bob Dole handily, failed to carry college graduates.) Moreover, if you
look at states Obama carried and compare them to the states that have
the highest percentage of people with an advanced degree, you find that
he won the top 19 states–all of them, which together account for 234
electoral votes. He also won 21 of the top 24, accounting for 282
electoral votes. McCain, by contrast, won the six states that have the
lowest percentage of people with advanced degrees.
As for minorities: Most–with the exception of
Cubans, Chinese-Americans, and Vietnamese-Americans–have voted
Democratic since the 1930s. But, with the shift of the economy and the
liberalization of immigration laws, the number of Latinos and Asian
Americans has expanded. Some of the new immigrants are professionals,
but others form the working class of the post-industrial economy. They
are orderlies, child-care workers, janitors, fast-food cooks, and
servers. As late as 1972, minorities accounted for just 10 percent of
the electorate. In this election, they made up 26 percent. Blacks, of
course, went overwhelmingly for Obama, but he also won Hispanics by 66
to 31 percent and Asians–who as a group used to split their vote
between Democrats and Republicans–by 62 to 35 percent.
Women,
too, were once disproportionately Republican–in 1960, Richard Nixon
won the women's vote. But their voting patterns began to change as they
entered the labor force. In 1950, only one-third of women worked;
today, 60 percent of women work, making up 46 percent of the total
labor force. Over 70 percent of working women have white-collar jobs,
and 24 percent work as professionals–compared to 17 percent of men. In
1980, women began disproportionately backing Democrats, and the trend
has continued. This year, Obama enjoyed a 13-point edge among women
voters and only a one-point edge among men. He carried working women by
21 points. If you add these numbers to the Democrats' advantage among
professionals and minorities, that is a good basis for winning
elections.
Obviously, one does not want to extrapolate too much from a single election, but the demographic trends are clearly moving in the Democrats' direction. So long as demographic groups continue to align with the parties in roughly the ways they do now, Democrats only stand to gain.
Actually, was just about to post this and came across this article by Salon's Gary Kamiya which is even better. I should be quoting from it, but I don't feel like re-doing the post.
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