Who’s winning the GOP race? (Rubio)
October 30, 2015 7 Comments
Jennifer Victor with a really nice Mischiefs of Faction post looking at the different metrics with which to approach this question. She suggests (And I strongly agree) that prediction markets are probably the best predictor at this point. And what do we see there?
That looks about right to me. It’s funny, though, Rubio has everything you need to win the nomination except strong popular support, good fundraising, and endorsements (as her other charts show). But if you follow the logic (and the political science) of nominations, he just seems to be the most obvious choice and I think that is what these markets reflect. I’d also suggest a few of these guys are way over-valued (yes, Huckabee at anything over 0.001% is over-valued). Given how things have gone recently, it’s sure a good time to short Jeb. I was trying to come up with a sports analogy for Rubio for my father-in-law and I struggled, but ended up with a team that’s stockpiled a bunch of high draft picks. Not all that good, but Rubio seems to have all the qualities that make him the strongest contender, except for current polling, money, endorsements, etc., but it is quite easy to imagine a scenario where he makes rapid progress in all of these.
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