Quick take for Slovakians

Here’s my short/quick take for Slovakian Pravda:

What do you make out of what is going on in DC? Trump has encouraged his supporters saying he will never concede and now we see rioters in the Capitol building. Is this an attempted accidental coup? I say accidental because I think Trump does not have a clue how his words might matter. But should Trump be impeached?

Honestly, the saddest day for American democracy in my lifetime, and honestly, in many lifetimes.  It was entirely predictable and foreseeable that Donald Trump’s authoritarian tendencies, disordered personality, and disrespect for the rule of law could bring us to this, but it is shocking nonetheless.  Nothing accidental about this– this is what Trump wanted.  His half-hearted “remain peaceful” tweets can are desperately short of what is called for, especially after he personally riled the insurrectionist crowd earlier today.  
 
Yes, as soon as Congress can reassemble Congress should vote to impeach and remove him.  He has quite clearly brought about an attempt to violently overturn the results of an election.  Virtually nothing could be more of an affront to his oath to uphold the US Constitution and American democracy.  I would hope the shocking events of today would shake some of the Republicans who have enabled Trump out of their complacency, but I hold no illusions about that given their ongoing cowardice in the face of clear threats Trump has long presented to our democracy.  This is a sad, sad day for America. 

My take for Slovakia

Here I am blogging a lot on a day I still desperately need to finish a syllabus.  Guess it will be a late night.  Anyway, I did just write out some thoughts for Slovakian Pravda, so I figured I might as well share them here… [Bold is the Andrej Matisak’s questions]

While Donald Trump probably pushed all norms of what is “normal” for the US President did two courtroom dramas of Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen just create probably the worst day of his Presidency as with Cohen’s case his former lawyer claims that Trump (a candidate for federal office as legal papers say) directed him to make payments that violated campaign finance laws? It is hard to imagine that Trump can escape this totally unscathed. What effect it might have on his Presidency?

think, this is the worst day of his presidency.  But honestly, I think I’m far from alone in now distrusting my ability to predict when Donald Trump will actually pay serious political consequences for his actions.  There is a strong consensus that he is in serious legal jeopardy, but, for now, the political consequences remian quite uncertain.  Thus far, Republicans in Congress seem willing to protect him at basically all costs.  One has to wonder what would happen if he actually did shoot someone on 5th Avenue in NYC (as he once claimed he could get away with).  That said, his approval is around 40% and a normal president would probably be above 55% in this economy.  And if he manages to fall down to 30% or so,that is pretty close to politically disastrous, especially with the 2018 midterms coming.  I think, as always, the question becomes what will it take for his remaining 35-40% base to finally abandon him.  And now, we just don’t know.  It is hard to dismiss guilty pleas and verdicts as “fake news,” but a lot about Trump has already been dismissed (e.g., “locker room talk”)

Short version: I just don’t know what to expect politically, but it does seem pretty clear that for their to be any genuine accountability for Trump, Democrats need to win back the House in the November elections.

Roy Moore for Slovakia

Wrote a quick take for my Slovakian reporter friend, figured I might as well share here:

Would you say that the senate candidate Roy Moore will politically survive (should survive?) current allegation of sexual misconduct and what does the initial reaction of the GOP tell us about the party?

Still a little early to tell, but I would not be at all surprised to see this follow the Access Hollywood pattern with some initial expressions of shock and dismay, followed by a rallying around in the end.

That said, it seems to me that if Republicans can come up with a workable strategy for holding that seat without Moore, that would be their preferred option. Most of the Republican establishment simply wants that seat and is no fan of Moore. I’ve read some about a possible Republican write-in candidate (Luther Strange, who Moore defeated in the primary). If that looks to become a viable and accepted strategy, there would be huge pressure for Moore to drop out.

As for the initial reaction of the party, my take is that it shows how morally bankrupt so many members are in the name of electoral wins, when one reads the various defenses of Moore. To be fair, many, i.e., John McCain, have heartily condemned, but the number and nature of many of the defenses is pretty damning. There’s also evidence of the alternative reality in which many Republicans live in in which nothing negative reported in the liberal media (now matter how thorough and deeply-sourced the reporting) should be treated as credible and worth believing.


And to add for my American audience, a couple on-point tweets:

https://twitter.com/KSchultz3580/status/928710210197135360

 

Charlottesville (for Slovakian consumption)

I’m glad to know that even in Slovakia, they are aware of the fact that Trump is unwilling to condemn white supremacists.  I was contacted by my journalist friend at Pravda for a few comments.  Figured I might as well share my response here, too.

1. President Donald Trump was criticized for his reaction to events in Charlottesville. What would be your reaction, was Trump too soft on white supremacists by not even named them?
My personal reaction– Trump’s “many sides” response was cowardly and despicable.  But, forget my reaction, I’m a liberal.  I think the reaction of some very conservative Republicans, Orrin Hatch, Cory Gardner, Marco Rubio, etc., essentially calling out Trump for being too soft on white supremacists is very telling.  This tells us just how far out of the mainstream our president is on the issue.  On the one hand, it is encouraging how many voices– including from the right– have spoken out appropriately against this.  On the other hand, it is extremely, extremely distressing that our very president, is clearly unwilling to criticize white supremacists.
2. How important (unimportant?) is for Trump and GOP to keep at least some support of far right extremist elements of the US society?
Well, obviously Trump thinks they are important.  He has spoken his mind– far too freely, shall we say– about all sorts of issues and opponents, yet when it comes to white supremacists (and Vladimir Putin, of course), he pretty much always pulls his punches.
As a political scientist, I can say that it is simply incontrovertible that the GOP has built its current national majority, in significant part, on politically exploiting sentiments of racial animus.  I do not think that the far right is a key element of that, but, when you politically exploit more subtle racial resentment, empowering this kind of far right extremism can be seen as a natural consequence.

Super Tuesday for Slovakians

This is what I wrote for my journalist friend at Pravda.  It will have to suffice for my blog readers as well…

Super Tuesday was more another case of Romney avoiding a big disaster than having a big triumph. Yes, he did win 6 of the 10 states up for grabs, but given his massive advantage in money, organization, and support from Republican elites, his inability to convincingly win in more states is widely seen as a source of weakness. Most notably, he won the state of Ohio by the barest of margins (38-37) when this state was the most important focus of the campaign and we was able to greatly outspend and out-organize Santorum. In short, if he had lost Ohio, this would have raised even more doubts about this campaign. By winning by such a small margin, though, he is unable to shake the widespread perception among the media and voters that he is a battered, bruised, and weak frontrunner.

From my perspective, Romney is very lucky to be running against such weak competition. His main opponents, Santorum and Romney, are both very flawed candidates who were never given much chance by anybody for precisely this reason. The fact that they have succeeded as much as they have against Romney really points to Romney’s own weakness.

Given the number of delegates he’s won, his ongoing huge advantages in money, organization and elite support, and the fact that, to a degree, opposition is still divided between Gingrich and Santorum (though, mostly Santorum at this point), it really is hard to see anybody other than Romney being the Republican nominee. Nonetheless, given his inability to truly pull away from his rivals– especially in key contests like Ohio– it seems quite likely that Romney will continue to have a bumpy ride throughout the primary process. Still, I think the ultimate take-away point is that Romney remains very much the likely nominee and he solidified that position. Back in January I was lamenting at what a boring nomination process this was looking to be, but all the factors I mentioned above have worked together to make this a much more interesting and dramatic primary season than any scholar or journalist would have predicted.

My Slovakian take on the New Hampshire Primary

A little belated, but still fun:

“Pre Romneyho je víťazstvo v New Hampshire naozaj dôležité. Ak bude ďalej napĺňať očakávania, získa nomináciu. A nevyzerá to tak, že by mohol mať súpera, ktorý by mu v tom zabránil,” povedal pre Pravdu Steven Greene, politológ zo Severokarolínskej štátnej univerzity.

And the Google translate version:

“For Romney is winning in New Hampshire really important. If you will continue to meet expectations, was nominated. And so it does not look that could have an opponent who would prevent him from doing,”

And what I actually said in an email:

This is a very important win for Mitt Romney.  He was expected to win by a solid margin and he did. But honestly, at this point, all Romney has to do is keep on meeting his expectations and he will cruise to victory.  And there’s really nothing or no opponent out there that suggests he should not keep on being able to do this.

They love me in Slovakia!

Here I am talking about the election results in Pravda the leading newspaper of Slovakia:

Quick hits

1) The Netflix algorithm has done great work lately bringing me movies it thought I would like and being correct.  I lovedSociety of the Snow” a Spanish language film about the famous Uruguay rugby team plane crash in the Andes back in 1972.  I’ve never actually seen the movie “Alive” but damn did I love this. 

2) Really good from Lee Drutman, “Why You Might Be a Democracy Hypocrite (And Why I Might Be Too)” [all emphases in original]

I’m not going to go through the entire survey here to diagnose you. Instead, I’ll just ask you five questions:

First off, and I hope this is an easy one: Would you say that having a democratic system is a good form of government?

I’m hoping you said yes. (If not, please see me after class)

But now we get into more complicated territory: 

Please read the following scenarios and consider: How appropriate would it be for President Biden to take action on his own, even if the Constitution does not give him the explicit power to act without congressional approval.

  – The country is facing an immediate military threat 

 –  A large majority of the American people believe that the president should act 

 –  The president knows it is the right thing to do for the American people 

  –  The president has sought a compromise with Congress but the other party is playing partisan games

Think about these scenarios. Conjure up, if you like, an issue you care a lot about, and imagine Republican congressional intransigence. That’s what I’m doing as I write. And I’m … struggling here.  If it’s a significant act on climate or gun safety — or another issue I really care about. Then … maybe? I mean, these are some urgent life and death issues, right? And I can’t trust Republicans to do the right thing, can I? And a Democrat might only be in the White House for a limited time. And the Constitution is silent on lots of things, and so maybe…  and Oh Sugarplum Fudge! I might really be a democracy hypocrite! 

I’m a political scientist. I know that democracy is a fragile agreement that relies on restraint. So I know what the “correct” answers are supposed to be. I know that extra-constitutional executive aggrandizement and overreach are key drivers of democratic breakdown. I know that these are the typical excuses would-be autocrats give for over-stepping constitutional lines. And I know that if “President Biden” were swapped out for “President Trump” I would feel completely differently.

I just co-wrote this whole report about democracy hypocrisy. And yet, here I am, admitting for all the world that when the stakes are high, commitment to democratic norms is… hard. Very, very hard.

I’m not alone. 

Only about 1 in 4 of Americans consistently and uniformly support democratic norms.

Support drops to 1 in 12 when we consider specific scenarios of unilateral executive action.

In short: Our democracy is on spongy ground

3) Josh Barro covers a lot of ground in this critique of universities, but I hate seeing political activists trying to forward their activism by being Political Science professors (a growing problem), so, I really like this part:

Matt Yglesias wrote a few weeks ago about a paper by Jenny Bulstrode, a historian of science at the University of London, who alleges that a moderately-notable metallurgical technique patented in England in the late 1700s was in fact stolen from the black Jamaican metallurgists who really developed it. The problem with Bulstrode’s paper is that it marshals no real evidence for its allegation — not only failing to show that Englishman Henry Cort was aware of a Jamaican metallurgical technique similar to the one he patented, but failing to show even that such a technique was ever used in Jamaica.

The paper, because it fit into the fashionable category of Historian Finds Yet Another Thing That Is Racist, garnered a lot of credulous press coverage. And when people pointed out that the paper didn’t have the goods, the editors of the journal who published it came out with a What Is Truth, Anyway-type word salad in defense of the article, including this:

We by no means hold that ‘fiction’ is a meaningless category – dishonesty and fabrication in academic scholarship are ethically unacceptable. But we do believe that what counts as accountability to our historical subjects, our readers and our own communities is not singular or to be dictated prior to engaging in historical study. If we are to confront the anti-Blackness of EuroAmerican intellectual traditions, as those have been explicated over the last century by DuBois, Fanon, and scholars of the subsequent generations we must grasp that what is experienced by dominant actors in EuroAmerican cultures as ‘empiricism’ is deeply conditioned by the predicating logics of colonialism and racial capitalism. To do otherwise is to reinstate older forms of profoundly selective historicism that support white domination.

These ideology-first, activism-oriented, the-truth-depends-on-who’s-looking approaches also extend into the soft social sciences — see, for example, the theme of the 2024 American Anthropological Association annual meeting, which declares an intention to “reimagine” anthropology in a way that breaks down the barrier between theory and practice to make more room for more social activism, so that anthropology better serves as a tool to respond to “systemic oppression.”

4) And my new favorite public intellectual Tyler Austin Harper (also cited by Barro in the previous):

The reigning assumption is that scholars of color are disproportionately represented in activism-oriented fields such as “decolonial theory,” which means that deans—always seeking more brown faces to put on university websites—are more likely to approve new tenure lines in ideologically supercharged, diversity-rich disciplines. It is often faculty who are trying to safeguard their fields from the progressive machinations of their bureaucratic overlords. But faced with a choice between watching their departments shrink or agreeing to hire in areas that help realize the personnel-engineering schemes of their bosses, departments tend to choose the latter.

Outside observers mock job ads looking for scholars working on “anti-racist Shakespeare,” and these listings are frequently tortured and ridiculous. However, such ads do not always reflect the scholarly priorities of the professors on the hiring committees. Rather, they’re often a product of the plotting of superiors who care more about their university’s public-facing diversity data than they do the intellectual needs of the English department, the interests of its students, or the health of the discipline more broadly. A humanities faculty member at an elite research university—who did not want to be identified, because he does not have tenure—is only one of several professors who told me that his department struggles to balance its curricular needs with the more political subfields being pushed by administrators…

Hiring activist faculty and making curricula more directed toward justice aren’t just about professors courting (or failing to court) the favor of a college’s higher-ups. These tendencies have also been a bid to defend the very existence of humanities departments. In a brave new world where every major must prove its worth to its debt-saddled “student-customers,” the humanities have a hard time mounting a credible case that their disciplines catapult graduates into six-figure salaries. What humanities departments can offer their young charges—who grow more progressive by the year—is the promise that their majors can help them understand power and fight for equality.

5) And more Harper in a great interview with Yascha Mounk

There was a great piece in The Chronicle recently, and the author argues that humanities professors need to emphasize our passion again, that these are texts that are interesting and vital. And sometimes they’re problematic, but they’re also beautiful and fascinating. And I think we’ve definitely lost some of that. I often joke that a lot of humanities courses, and a lot of humanities discourse, seems to act as though the goal of reading is a kind of “find the racism treasure hunt,” where you approach a text and point out all the things that are problematic about it. And that doesn’t mean that that’s not valuable. And it doesn’t mean that there is not a place within humanities scholarship and discourse to talk about the weird racial politics of Shakespeare’s Othello or whatever. That’s not what it means at all. But it does mean that we seem to have abandoned some of the key mission of defending these texts on the basis of their aesthetic merits.

When I was in grad school I took this philosophy course with a classicist, and at one point we were reading one of Plato’s Dialogues when there was a moment that was sort of sexist, and a student started complaining about the sexism in Plato. The professor, sort of an arch-feminist, stopped that student short and said, “We read texts generously in this classroom.” She’s somebody who’s devoted her life to feminist philosophy, and said we’re going to start with an appreciation, from a place of enjoyment, we’re going to try to actually wrangle with the ideas. And then once we’ve assessed the text on its merits and in its own terms, let’s talk about some of those problematic aspects. And so, from my point of view, I don’t think it has to be a trade-off. We can strike some balance between the two. And what seems to me to be the change in recent years is that we’ve lost that balance. 

I think the culture war is a war against nuance. Folks on the right want to sort of scrub all identity, politics, all discussions of race, gender, whatever, out of the humanities. And then people on the other side of the equation want to cling to it desperately. And both of those just feel deeply unsatisfying to me. And it feels really nihilistic to turn it into a zero-sum game where we can only have one or the other and where we can have our appreciation of Byron alongside a reckoning with gender or whatever.

6) Radley Balko on Virginia’s insane attorney general.  It’s long– Claude’s summary:

Here are the key takeaways from the article:

  1. Jason Miyares abruptly fired the entire conviction integrity unit shortly after taking office as Virginia’s attorney general. This unit investigated potential wrongful convictions.
  2. Miyares campaigned on a “tough on crime” platform and solicited endorsements from police groups, but dissolved a unit dedicated to correcting injustices.
  3. Virginia has seen 20 DNA exonerations but likely has many more undiscovered wrongful convictions based on red flags like aggressive prosecutors, inadequate public defense, and unscientific forensics.
  4. Miyares created a replacement unit that supposedly does innocence work, but its main focus appears to be waging culture wars and raising Miyares’ profile.
  5. The new unit brought unsuccessful criminal charges related to a debunked narrative about assaults in a Virginia school district used to criticize LGBTQ policies.
  6. Miyares also opened similarly unsuccessful investigations into Virginia elections despite no evidence of widespread fraud. This feeds dangerous conspiracy theories.
  7. Meanwhile, Miyares withdrew support for two likely innocent men serving life sentences for murdering a police officer based on shaky evidence.
  8. Miyares portrays himself as tough on crime but Virginia voters largely reject his hardline stances on issues like the death penalty, abortion, and sentencing reform.
  9. Miyares was elected by less than 1% of the vote but governs as if he has a sweeping mandate to wage cultural battles.
  10. Miyares can still do significant damage before Virginia voters get another chance to potentially vote him out of office.

7) Leading NC Republican gubernatorial candidate has decided January 6 was a “small debacle.”

8a) This is depressing:

Florida’s top health official called for a halt to using mRNA coronavirus vaccines on Wednesday, contending that the shots could contaminate patients’ DNA — aclaim that has been roundly debunked by public health experts, federal officials and the vaccine companies.

Florida Surgeon General Joseph A. Ladapo’s announcement, released as a state bulletin, comes after months of back-and-forth with federal regulators who have repeatedly rebuked his rhetoric around vaccines.Public health experts warn of the dangers of casting doubt on proven lifesaving measures as respiratory viruses surge this winter.

“We’ve seen this pattern from Dr. Ladapo that every few months he raises some new concern and it quickly gets debunked,” said Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University’s public health school who led the White House’s national coronavirus response before stepping down last year.“This idea of DNA fragments — it’s scientific nonsense. People who understand how these vaccines are made and administered understand that there is no risk here.”

8b) What’s fascinating, is that this guy has amazing medical credentials.  Kind of wild that you can actually be brilliant and accomplished and a complete moron at the same time.  

9) This is excellent, “To Save Democracy, Help Men

Globally, men vote for radical parties at rates much higher than women. Spain’s far-right, populist, and conspiracy-minded Vox party received roughly double the number of votes from men than from women. So did Slovakia’s similarly-inclined Slovak National Party.  While men and women voted for Poland’s anti-democratic Law and Justice Party at similar rates, men voted for the even more extreme Konfederacja nearly three times as much as women. A 2009 study of European parties that leaned authoritarian or populist found that men were generally around twice as likely as women to vote for them—and up to five times more likely in the case of the nationalist-populist Swedish Democrats. 

It’s not just Europe: Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro performed 10-points better among men than women in the 2018 election which brought him to power. Roughly the same gender difference pushed Argentina’s new populist libertarian leader over the top in November. 

In some countries, gender aligns very closely with other social or demographic variables like class, education, and employment—but in a number of places, being male makes a big difference, independent of other factors. 

The U.S. is no exception to these trends. The gap between male and female voting was greater for Trump than in a half century of exit polling. Men started leaning Republican in 1976, such that Mitt Romney had an 8-point lead among men – so some of the gap reflects real policy preferences rather than a mark of more extreme politics. But the lead among men for a candidate who bragged about grabbing women by the pussy was much greater.

While much has been written on the role of race in recent elections, gender is playing a crucial and different role. White men formed Trump’s core support in 2016, but by 2020, Trump polled 12-points better with Black men than Black women, winning 18% of the Black male vote. Among Latino men, 44% voted for Trump in 2020, 6-points more than in 2016, and 10-points more than Latina women.

As with international trends, these numbers are not confined to an older generation who will soon leave the stage. In fact, the tilt is even more pronounced for young men. While 18- to 29-year-olds had been becoming less conservative since the early 2000s, something about Trump generated a resurgence of support. The change was most pronounced among the youngest part of that demographic: the number of twelfth graders who claimed to be conservative or very conservative skyrocketed when Trump was on the ballot.

People who care about democracy could read these numbers and conclude that they should simply double down on getting women to vote. But giving up on half of one’s country is not good civics—nor is it smart electoral math.

Moreover, this approach gets the diagnosis wrong. The problem is not that men are natural crusaders for authoritarian populists. In fact, U.S. men are much more likely to be politically apathetic, and most young men are better characterized as confused and drifting. The problem is that anti-democratic and violent forces are trying to weaponize that aimlessness. Politics is coming into most men’s lives subtly. They look for belonging, purpose, and advice, and find a mix of grifters, political hacks, and violent extremists who lead them down an ugly road. And few people are fighting back.

10) Love this chart, “Which college teams are best at preparing players for the NFL? See where your team ranks.”

11) This is awesome.  Biotech will save us.

12) On gender discrimination in hiring

13) Good stuff from Michael Powell, “The Curious Rise of Settler Colonialism and Turtle Island: The problem with shoehorning a Middle Eastern war—or American history—into a trendy academic theory”

Settler colonialism—academic jargon for the violent process by which colonial empires empower settlers to push out and oppress Indigenous inhabitants and form a dominant new society—is a term much in vogue among activists and academics on the left. To talk of settler states and oppressed Indigenous people, and claim an umbilical connection between Palestinian struggles and those of Native Americans, is to construct a morality tale stripped of subtleties—a matter not of politics, but of sin.

Israel, in this view, is not a flawed and contentious democracy engaged in a war with an enemy that vows to destroy it. It is a settler-colonialist state built upon the oppression and exploitation of Indigenous Palestinians. A left-wing kibbutznik who lives a few miles from Gaza and drives sick Palestinians to Israeli hospitals is no less a colonialist than a right-wing theocratic settler who brandishes an automatic rifle and insists on the annexation of stolen lands on the West Bank…

Many supporters of the Palestinian cause insist on using the terms settler colonialism and Indigenous, the better to render Israel and Israelis as an oppressive other. To assail a colony of outsiders with an “imagined” connection to Palestine, as some left-wing scholars put it, makes it all too easy to brush aside the practicalities of coexistence with an Israel that is now 75 years old and has about 9 million citizens, including about 2 million Arabs.

Settlers, the theory goes, are mere pawns of imperial patrons, and impermanence is implied. Settlers can be uprooted, sojourns violently terminated. What matters is that Indigenous people reclaim their rightful inheritance…

I put the question of settler colonialism to Roger Berkowitz, the academic director of the Hannah Arendt Center at Bard College. He said he is taken aback both by the speed with which the ideological construct of settler colonialism has entered the global discourse and by how intently people who espouse the theory focus on Israel. Berkowitz was careful to say he does not see them all as anti-Semites, although the word anti-Semitism does keep leaping to his mind.

In invocations of settler colonialism, Berkowitz hears progressives giving up on effecting change through political means. “The left has replaced its faith in proletarian subjects and utopian solutions with a view of the Indigenous as innocent and oppressed. It’s an ethics rather than a politics.”

14) So cool, “All the Biomass of Earth, in One Graphic”

Visualizing All the Biomass on Earth

15) More cool biotech, “New antibiotic uses novel method to target deadly drug-resistant bacteria, study says”

16) Good thread on how amazing the measles vaccine is and the insanity of people not taking it.

17) This is good, “The real problem at Harvard: The ouster of the university’s president underscores a harsh truth: The nation’s oldest institution of higher learning talks a good game about diverse views, but it doesn’t actually protect them.”

18) Scott Alexander with a fascinating take on depression:

In anorexia, some psychosocial event (like criticism from a ballet coach and subsequent voluntary self-starvation) causes a shock to the lipostat. Instead of correctly activating regulatory processes to get body weight back to normal, it accepts the new level as its new set point, and tries to defend it.

Depression is often precipitated by some psychosocial event (like loss of a job, or the death of a loved one). It’s natural to feel sad for a little while after this. But instead of correctly activating regulatory processes to get mood back to normal, the body accepts the new level as its new set point, and tries to defend it.

By “defend it”, I mean that healthy people have a variety of mechanisms to stop being sad and get their mood back to a normal level. In depression, the patient appears to fight very hard to prevent mood getting back to a normal level. They stay in a dark room and avoid their friends. They even deliberately listen to sad music!

The feverish person feels too cold, and the anorexic person feels too fat, so we might expect the depressed person to feel too happy. I think something like this is true, if we put strong emphasis on the “too”. One of the official DSM symptoms of depression is “feelings of guilt/worthlessness”. A depressed person will frequently think things like “I don’t deserve my friends / job / money / talents.” In other words, they believe they’re too happy! They think they deserve to be sadder!

Depressed people seem to purposefully seek out the most depressing thoughts they can. They find that, unbidden, they are forced to think about the most humiliating thing they ever did, dwell on their worst failures, consider all the things that could go wrong in the future. They’ll be trying to cook dinner, and their brain will tell them “Consider the possibility that you could die alone and unloved.” Why is their brain so insistent that they spend time considering this possibility? Maybe it’s for the same reason that a feverish person’s brain makes them shiver: it’s trying to maintain an extreme state, and it needs to pull out all the stops.

We know that if we make depressed people stop doing these things, they feel happier. This is the principle behind behavioral activationopposite action, and cognitive behavioral therapy, three of the most powerful therapies for depression. If you depression tells you to do something, do the opposite. Go on a nice walk in the park! Listen to happy music! Spend time with your friends! If you do these things, your depression is pretty likely to go away. The problem isn’t that they don’t work, the problem is that it’s like a feverish person trying to take an ice bath, or an anorexic trying to eat a big meal – all their instincts are telling them not to do it. And if your depression tries to get you to think in a specific way, think in a different way. When it tells you that you should still feel bad for that embarrassing thing you did in third grade, tell it that makes no sense, and that you’ve done plenty of things you’re proud of since then. Again, this often works if you do it. It’s just really hard.

Psychologists already suspect the existence of a happiness set point (thymostat?); this is the principle behind ideas like the “hedonic treadmill”. So my theory here is that at least some cases of depression involve recalibrated happiness set points. A set point can either recalibrate randomly (ie for poorly understood biological reasons) or after a specific shock (ie interpreting a prolonged period of sadness as “the new normal”). Once a patient has a new, lower, happiness set point, their control system works to defend it. It enlists both biological systems (possibly changing the levels of various neurotransmitters?) and behavioral systems to defend the new set point. If it “succeeds”, the person maintains an abnormally low mood.

19) Guest post in Slow Boring on the need to reform sports gambling. I heartily agree. 

In 2019, gambling industry experts predicted that in 10 years, 90% of the sports gambling market would go mobile. That figure has already been reached in New York and New Jersey, two of the largest gambling states in the country. A Drive Research survey found that three-quarters of sports gamblers prefer to bet online. In our convenience economy, where you can order groceries and literally anything from the comfort of your own home, it makes sense that gamblers enjoy the same convenience. 

But that’s not a good thing.

As I mentioned earlier, when I lived in DC, my gambling habit never really took hold because it took a significant amount of effort to head out to Arlington. The trip was treated as a ceremonial event, complete with hot soup.

Clearly, in states where sports gambling exists in the convenience of one’s pocket, gamblers are choosing the most convenient option to place their bets, and that’s leading to compulsive and repeat gambling behavior. That same Drive Research survey found that in-game wagering is the most popular form of betting. And a 2022 Harris poll found that 70% of sports gamblers bet at least once a week.

Those numbers are good for Fanduel and Draft Kings, but bad for the American public. Amongst most recreational gamblers, in-game bets are often more impulsive and lack careful consideration. This issue is exacerbated when individuals already have a bet on the game, as some sports gambling companies aggressively send push notifications encouraging additional in-game bets. Clinical psychologist Meredith K. Ginley, a specialist in gambling addiction, emphasizes that these in-game notifications are strategically crafted to trigger risky behavior in individuals predisposed to such tendencies. Essentially, these gambling apps, driven by profit motives, exploit psychological triggers to encourage habitual and hazardous betting practices among their customers.

20) “Whatever Happened to Zika?”  Good question.

Suddenly, pregnant women in America and elsewhere were told not to travel to the Caribbean and South America. Expecting mothers in Miami, where local mosquitoes were transmitting the virus, stayed inside all summer long. Today, thousands of Brazilian families struggle to care for profoundly disabled 8-year-olds, “their limbs rigid, their mouths slack, many with foreheads that sloped sharply back above their dark eyes,” as The New York Times described in 2022.

Then, as quickly as it appeared, Zika vanished from global awareness. In 2016, most major news sites, including this one, largely stopped covering the disease regularly. Despite the absence of a treatment or vaccine, the world’s attention moved on.

There are good reasons for this: Zika cases dropped precipitously after 2016. And just a few years later, COVID ravaged the planet, giving us all something new to worry about. But that doesn’t mean Zika is gone. The disease is still out there, infecting people every day. There is still no Zika vaccine, and experts say another outbreak is likely before too long. In this way, Zika reflects a typical epidemic cycle—an emergent crisis, followed by a brief influx of resources, followed by rich countries’ long and fateful forgetting. “A lot of people have forgotten about Zika,” says Anna Durbin, a professor of global health at Johns Hopkins. “They think because we don’t see a big outbreak that it’s not there, but it’s definitely there. And it can be devastating for children born with congenital Zika syndrome.”

By 2017, Zika had burned through entire cities. Some experts estimate that the virus infected half the residents of Recife, a Northeastern Brazilian city and the outbreak’s epicenter. This swift onslaught was tragic, but it had an upside: Countries in the Caribbean and the Americas quickly achieved herd immunity, essentially starving the virus of new hosts. Cases fell off rapidly—in 2018, about 30,000 Zika cases were reported in the Americas, a region that spans between Argentina and Canada. Compare that with nearly 650,000 in 2016.

But despite this overall improved picture, the virus continues to circulate. In 2022, the Americas saw 40,528 cases of Zika. Brazil had the greatest number of cases that year, at more than 34,000, but Belize had the highest incidence per capita. As of early December, 31,780 cases were reported in the Americas in 2023. Microcephaly is far less prevalent, but it, too, is still occurring: Brazil saw 163 cases of Zika-linked microcephaly in 2022, according to the Pan American Health Organization, down from 2,033 in 2016. And growing evidence indicates that Zika can cause brain damage beyond microcephaly, including calcification in the brain and other, less noticeable issues. These effects are even less well tracked.

21) Loved this, “Personality and politics of 263 occupations”

22) Donald Trump wants revenge.  Drum:

The Daily Mail recently conducted a poll asking people what they thought of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. They made a word cloud of the most popular responses, and Trump was so proud of his that he posted it on Truth Social:

23) Not releasing completed movies seems crazy:

The SAG-AFTRA strike may be over, but studio shenanigans are evergreen. Warner Bros. has decided not to release its planned Wile E. Coyote movie, Coyote vs. Acme, despite its being a completed project, according to The Hollywood Reporter. As with Batgirl before it, the studio will instead opt for a tax write-off. The film stars John Cena and cost $72 million to make. “For three years, I was lucky enough to make a movie about Wile E. Coyote, the most persistent, passionate, and resilient character of al time,” director Dave Green tweeted in response to the cancellation. “I was surrounded by a brilliant team, who poured their souls into this project. … Along the ride, we were embraced by test audiences who rewarded us with fantastic scores.” In a statement to THR, Warner Bros. said the cancellation was due to a shifting “global strategy to focus on theatrical releases.” James Gunn, who co-wrote and produced the film, has not said anything about its being killed. Vulture has reached out for comment.

The cancellation does have a certain irony, given that, on a recent earnings call, Warner Bros. CEO and media supervillain David Zaslav said that “we haven’t really been able to crack the kids. We have a huge amount of kids content. We’re going to attack that. We think that really differentiates us and we’re going to have to really promote it. We haven’t been.” Promptly pulling the plug on a complete kids’ project for a tax write-off doesn’t seem super in line with that sentiment, but hey, we’re not the CEO.

24) Interesting! “We Have No Drugs to Treat the Deadliest Eating Disorder: There are pills for bulimia and binge-eating disorder. Why not anorexia?”

Despite nearly half a century of attempts, no pill or shot has been identified to effectively treat anorexia nervosa. Anorexia is well known to be the deadliest eating disorder; the only psychiatric diagnosis with a higher death rate is opioid-use disorder. A 2020 review found people who have been hospitalized for the disease are more than five times likelier to die than their peers without it. The National Institutes of Health has devoted more than $100 million over the past decade to studying anorexia, yet researchers have not found a single compound that reliably helps people with the disorder.

Other eating disorders aren’t nearly so resistant to treatment. The FDA has approved fluoxetine (a.k.a. Prozac) to treat bulimia nervosa and binge-eating disorder (BED); doctors prescribe additional SSRIs off-label to treat both conditions, with a fair rate of success. An ADHD drug, Vyvanse, was approved for BED within two years of the disorder’s official recognition. But when it comes to anorexia, “we’ve tried, I don’t know, eight or 10 fundamentally different kinds of approaches without much in the way of success,” says Scott Crow, an adjunct psychology professor at the University of Minnesota and the vice president of psychiatry for Accanto Health…

Despite nearly half a century of attempts, no pill or shot has been identified to effectively treat anorexia nervosa. Anorexia is well known to be the deadliest eating disorder; the only psychiatric diagnosis with a higher death rate is opioid-use disorder. A 2020 review found people who have been hospitalized for the disease are more than five times likelier to die than their peers without it. The National Institutes of Health has devoted more than $100 million over the past decade to studying anorexia, yet researchers have not found a single compound that reliably helps people with the disorder.

Other eating disorders aren’t nearly so resistant to treatment. The FDA has approved fluoxetine (a.k.a. Prozac) to treat bulimia nervosa and binge-eating disorder (BED); doctors prescribe additional SSRIs off-label to treat both conditions, with a fair rate of success. An ADHD drug, Vyvanse, was approved for BED within two years of the disorder’s official recognition. But when it comes to anorexia, “we’ve tried, I don’t know, eight or 10 fundamentally different kinds of approaches without much in the way of success,” says Scott Crow, an adjunct psychology professor at the University of Minnesota and the vice president of psychiatry for Accanto Health…

Psychiatrists have found that many patients with anorexia don’t improve with treatment even when medicines are prescribed for conditions other than their eating disorder. If an anorexia patient also has anxiety, for example, taking an anti-anxiety drug would likely fail to relieve either set of symptoms, Attia told me. “Time and again, investigators have found very little or no difference between active medication and placebo in randomized controlled trials,” she said. The fact that fluoxetine seems to help anorexia patients avoid relapse—but only when it’s given after they’ve regained a healthy weight—also supports the notion that malnourished brains don’t respond so well to psychoactive medication. (In that case, the effect might be especially acute for people with anorexia nervosa, because they tend to have lower BMIs than people with other eating disorders.)

 

Quick hits part II

1) Great stuff from Brian Beutler, “Thank Media And Social Networks For Mass Economic Despair”

Whatever you think of the U.S. economy, or Joe Biden’s handling of the U.S. economy, this much isn’t really arguable: public perception—including the widespread, false belief that the U.S. is in recession—has fallen out of step with where historical data suggests it ought to be.

I’m not saying you have to believe the economy is good, or that it has necessarily been good for you personally. Just that the economic challenges the country faces today are much less severe than they’ve been in the past, when economic sentiment was somehow better. Across all major indices, including inflation (now basically kicked), unemployment, and interest rates, our problems have been worse in prior eras without running public opinion this deep into the dirt. Wish mortgage-interest rates were lower? Well, they’ve been higher in the past, again without creating mass despair.

Everyone should be a bit puzzled by this, and everyone should want to understand it, even if only because it’s fascinating. Democrats (and really everyone who wants to stop Donald Trump) should be particularly interested, because a) making big macroeconomic policy changes under divided government is nearly impossible, and b) even if it were easy, the phenomenon itself suggests people aren’t really responding mechanistically to specific hardship indicators. Gas prices are currently way down! And yet…

Which is to say, the best hope for arresting and reversing the sentiment probably doesn’t lie in tweaking policy but in changing mass conventional wisdom. That doesn’t mean condescending to the minority of people who really are struggling by telling them that they’re imagining things. It means reaching people who say things like “everyone knows the economy sucks” (it doesn’t) the same way they might say “everyone knows Sinbad starred in a movie called Shazaam” (he didn’t, there is no such movie), and convincing them they’ve got bad information…

The bad news is that, for the time being at least, economic sentiment remains in the toilet. And even if you agree that the economy is bad, you can’t explain—with citations to specific metrics—why public opinion has soured more than in past, worse economies.

Something else, or some other combination of factors, must explain it.

The hypothesis that gets people most riled up is propaganda—something everyone likes to believe only other people are susceptible to. But to me it’s the most straightforward explanation, and my hope is that if we categorize the information problem thoughtfully, it’ll stop striking progressives as some kind of insult.

When people left of center hear that word—propaganda—their minds race to Fox News-style Orwellian brainwash. Weak-minded partisans being dumb. But if you imagine the large majority of Americans who say the economy is bad to be composed of different kinds of media consumers, you see that propaganda is absolutely responsible for a lion’s share of negative economic sentiment.

Republican voters are now nearly all primed to say the economy is terrible the instant a Democrat wins the presidency. Their media and social milieus have trained them to hate Democrats and thus to register all public opinion negatively during periods of Democratic rule. Something similar happens in reverse, too—liberal economic sentiment deteriorates under Republican presidents—but much less so. As with all aspects of U.S. polarization, it’s heavily asymmetric and the asymmetry is driven by Republicans, who are 2.5 times likelier to pull this binary toggle from “the economy is good” to “the economy is bad” on a purely partisan basis. Biden was perceived to be an economic failure in his earliest days in office by almost half the country. What is that if not “propaganda driving changes in economic sentiment?”

Once we accept that these kinds of media and social cues can affect survey data, you start to see other, subtler sources of the misalignment everywhere.

Mainstream media has become addicted to emphasizing plucking bad economic news from the surfeit of good data, and sniffing out stories of distress rather than the larger number of happy anecdotes (e.g. expensive groceries, rather than all the raises people have gotten to make those same groceries affordable). In some cases they just mislead news consumers about what the data means.

2) Some cool social science:

We are witnessing increasing partisan polarization across the world. It is often argued that partisan “echo chambers” are one of the drivers of both policy and affective polarization. In this article, we develop and test the argument that the political homogeneity of people’s social environment shapes polarization. Using an innovative, large-scale pre-registered “lab-in-the-field” experiment in the United Kingdom, we examine how polarization is influenced by partisan group homogeneity. We recruit nationally representative partisans and assign them to discuss a salient policy issue, either with like-minded partisans (an echo chamber) or in a mixed-partisan group. This allows us to examine how group composition affects polarization. In line with our expectations, we find that partisan echo chambers increase both policy and affective polarization compared to mixed discussion groups. This has important implications for our understanding of the drivers of polarization and for how out-group animosity might be ameliorated in the mass public.

3) How drug dealing actually works on local college campuses. “A trial in federal court last week stemming from the overdose of a 23-year-old Raleigh man exposed the inner workings of a drug-dealing duo and their college-student clients. ”

4) This is really interesting and the cool charts are resistant to cut and paste, so just follow my gift link, “Millennials aren’t having kids. Here’s why.”

As we analyzed the latest figures, from 2022, our brains spun in our skulls: Since the mid-1980s, the rate at which we produce only children has remained absolutely flat. Something like 1 in 5 American women ages 25 to 44 are one and done.

That’s bizarre, given birthrates! But let’s zoom out and look at the whole universe of possible family sizes.

First, we noted that families with three or more kids plunged in the 1980s, as birth control, education and greater opportunity helped women pile into the workforce. That’s also when only children rose to their current level. Families shifted againafter the Great Recession when, among women 25 to 44, even having two children lost its luster. The number of women who had zero children soared. Only children held steady…

That suggests a simple explanation: If people want kids, they want more than one. A consistent minority stops at one, be it for biological, philosophical or logistical reasons. But otherwise children seem to be a multiple-or-nothing proposition.

Our friends at Gallup confirmed this. A poll this summer found that almost nobody — just 3 percent of Americans — considers one child to be the ideal family size.

Four.  Four is the correct number of kids 🙂

5) This is cool! “Hoofprint Biome, which recently closed a $4.25M pre-seed round of venture capital funding, was founded by two NC State Ph.D. grads with the mission to improve cattle’s gut health and, as a result, reduce methane — a major contributor to climate change.”

6) OMG I was so annoyed by all the twitter celebration of Kissinger’s death.  I’m not here to argue Kissinger was a good person or just misunderstood, but I think this Jeff Maurer post perfectly captures what annoyed me so much, “Wow, I Am So Impressed By Your Righteous Dancing on Henry Kissinger’s Grave!!!”

To be honest, I’ve never been sure if you’re awesome or not. On my list of people who are dope, you were always a “maybe”. Sometimes, I thought I was underestimating your radness, but other times, the very idea that I considered you even mildly swell seemed absurd. However, that ambiguity has been permanently cleared up by your righteous social media posts dunking on Henry Kissinger’s death.

It turns out you totally rock! That has been made clear by your catty, aloof, and — most of all — thrillingly RIGHTEOUS anti-Kissinger posts! Your status as a cool, boss, daddy-o shall never be questioned again — not by me, at least! Your posts are incontrovertible proof that you are an informed and compassionate bad-ass who thinks for themselves and — quite obviously — doesn’t give a “d” about anyone else’s opinion.

Where did you even get the idea to post about Kissinger? From literally everyone else in your timeline? Possibly, but it must be said: Your pithy, incisive bon mots rose above the trillions of others that hit social media like a gamma ray burst the second Kissinger was pronounced dead. If you hadn’t called Kissinger a “war criminal”, I wouldn’t have known what to make of the scores upon scores of identical accusations. Finally, someone had the guts to say exactly what everyone else in their peer group was saying! And then to also put a little Cambodian flag at the end of their tweet — that was the flourish that made me think “truly, this person is a scholar and a wit.”

I’m embarrassed to admit that I didn’t know that you were a student of mid-Cold-War geopolitics. I must have missed your posts about the SALT Treaties, the Apollo-Soyuz project, and the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. But that must be an oversight on my part, because, clearly, this epoch of history is a passion of yours! Your posts — in which you misspelled “Kissinger”, by the way (darn autocorrect!) — make it beyond dispute that you are well-informed about the complexities and tradeoffs of that era. After all: How else would you know that Kissinger = evil? It’s not like you could just hear someone — probably Anthony Bourdain — say “Kissinger bad” and assume that they probably know what they’re talking about! That would make you a facile, credulous lemming! And we all know that you are actually a fearless, worldly truth-teller.

7) This post from Brian Klaas is fantastic.  Read it even if you are not a dog lover, “The Evolution of Modern Dogs: How our canine companions were carefully crafted by quirky, bored aristocrats, the self-proclaimed “doggy people” from Victorian Britain—and why their story can help us understand social change.”

Arbitrary Selection, or The Great Republican Hat Trial

Everything that replicates itself is subject to the forces of selection, from products to people. That which is more desirable or more effective at surviving is able to replicate itself into a future generation. Those traits are selected for, which makes them continue into the future. With products, replication becomes more likely when there are features that we like (iPhones continue generation after generation for this reason). With people, replication becomes more likely for those with traits that help us live long enough to procreate and to find a suitable partner to produce children.

But because we are conscious, self-reflective beings, the forces of selection we apply to our social world are not random. They are often arbitrary, according to fads or fleeting tastes. (A case in point is the success of the “Pet Rock” which was replicated an astonishing number of times for what it was).

Dogs are a longer lasting illustration of this concept. Humans, throughout history, have selected for certain traits in dog breeding, which facilitated some forms of behavioral specialization that made them more useful to humanity.

But Victorian-era “doggy people” put a form of arbitrary selection into overdrive, creating a sharp divergence in physical characteristics within the same species in just a few decades. This concept of arbitrary selection isn’t just useful for understanding dogs; it’s quite literally one of the core drivers of social change—even in politics.

When you look at the current crop of Republican members of Congress, for example, they have been arbitrarily selected by the MAGA base, chosen because they fulfil a certain slate of subjective, fad-based criteria in terms of the hats they wear, the people they praise, and what they believe (or, more accurately, what they say they believe). Those who don’t conform to that standard are culled from the pool of Republican members of Congress through primaries, elections, or resignations. It’s a form of arbitrary selection.

Lauren Boebert, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and Matt Gaetz make more sense when you realize that arbitrary selection was put on steroids during the Trump presidency, with litmus tests for being a “real Republican” rather than a RINO (Republican in Name Only) tied to personal fealty to Trump (the candidate, not the Jack Russell Terrier).

Republican primaries these days are but human versions of The Great Collie Ear Trial (perhaps the Great Republican Hat Trial?). Are they really a Republican?

All of human society is subjected to selection—and it’s often up to us what we arbitrarily choose to amplify and replicate in our social systems. Dogs provide us an extreme window into how quickly our social dynamics can change the world.

8) Ron Brownstein, “The Trumpcare Conundrum: Can Republicans repeal Obamacare without imposing the greatest costs on the older, white, blue-collar voters who put Trump into office?”

Of course they can’t!  But their voters will vote for them anyway to prevent drag queen story hour from taking over the whole country.

As congressional Republicans race to repeal and replace President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, one of their principal challenges is finding an alternative that does not expose older and less affluent white voters at the core of Donald Trump’s electoral coalition to greater costs and financial risk.

The paradox of the health-reform debate is that many of Obamacare’s key elements raised costs on younger and healthier people who generally vote Democratic as a means of limiting the financial exposure of older and sicker people, even as older whites have stampeded toward the GOP. Conversely, many of the central ideas common to the Republican replacement plans would lower costs for younger and healthier adults while exposing people with greater health needs, many of them older, to the risk of much larger out-of-pocket costs, even if it reduces the health-insurance premiums they initially pay.

9) I found this pretty interesting, “NFL teams with offensive-minded head coaches are more likely to succeed”

Now that we’ve established that proficient offenses are most important for championship contenders in the modern game, we can dive into how much better offensive-minded head coaches have been for their teams.

Over the past 20 full seasons, 53 percent of the head coaches in the NFL had prior experience on the offensive side of the game, including offensive coordinators, quarterbacks coaches and so on. Teams coached by those offensive-minded head coaches have accounted for 61 percent of the top five offenses in the NFL over that span. In other words, they have been responsible for more than their fair share of stellar team performances. They also have been at the helm for 55 percent of the top five defensive performances; again, more than their fair share. That means, of course, that defensive-minded coaches have accounted for less than their share of top five offensive and defensive performances…

If you were to select a team playing from 2002 to 2022 at random and that team ranked in the top five for both offense and defense, there would be a 34 percent chance that team appeared in the Super Bowl that season. If the team you selected was top five in offense and average in defense, the chance drops to 14 percent. Select a team with an average offense and a top five defense and the odds slip even further, to eight percent. Teams that didn’t rank in the top five in either category had less than a one percent chance of participating in a Super Bowl.

10) Tim Alberta on how the Evangelical movement has so clearly placed Donald Trump and the Republican party over the actual teachings of Jesus. And a great Fresh Air interview with him.

11) I completely agree with Drum that this Vox article captures exactly what “woke” is. And how Vox can be so frustrating:

I like Vox. It could use a little more editing to get word lengths down, but they often run interesting pieces with plenty of detail and backup data.

However, they are also the online home of wokeness—and sometimes it’s just too heavy-handed to ignore. Today, for example, I was reading a lengthy piece about falling global fertility rates and the success of government programs to turn this trend around. (Short answer: nothing works.) Then, right after describing a program in Taiwan, this comes out of the blue:

In the US, meanwhile, rhetoric aimed at getting people to have more children can ring hollow given a racist history in which white motherhood has been lauded while Black women’s fertility has been viewed as disordered and suspect, to the point that Black women have been forcibly sterilized. In a country where Black women die in childbirth at nearly three times the rate of white women, it’s impossible to hear calls to increase the birth rate without questioning who they’re really aimed at.

People sometimes ask for a definition of woke. This is it. It’s great to be awake to the way society treats Black people and other minority groups unfairly. It’s not great to try and shoehorn this in as an explanation for absolutely everything. It’s stuff like this that gives woke a bad reputation, even among many non-conservatives.

12) This is a really interesting New Yorker article that asks, “Does AI Technology Lead Police to Ignore Contradictory Evidence?”  The answer is a resounding, “yes!”  But the problem is really not the technology, but bad policing.  All sorts of things lead police to ignore contradictory evidence.  The pervasive problem of confirmation bias is just awful in police investigations.  And AI Technology is just one more place where, sadly, this can go horribly wrong. But, just more reason to fix policing, not to throw out the very much good that this technology can actually contribute in solving crimes.

13) The New York Times on all the hurricane danger to North and South Carolina (and, heck, our NHL team is the Carolina Hurricanes).

14) Maia Szalavitz asks, “Do Safe Injection Sites Increase Crime?”

Over 100,000 Americans now die from drug overdoses annually. To combat this crisis in New York City and save lives, Mayor Bill de Blasio decided to support an initiative rife with controversy: In November 2021, his government allowed OnPoint, a nonprofit, to open two overdose prevention centers, where people with addictions can inject or smoke drugs like opioids and stimulants under medical supervision to reduce the risk of overdose death. Upon taking office, Mayor Eric Adams, Mr. de Blasio’s successor, has continued to support the sites’ work.

Some neighborspoliticians and media have claimed that the centers — one in East Harlem and one in Washington Heights — are increasing crime and public drug use in neighborhoods already burdened with poverty.

But an important new study published this week refutes these claims. It shows that violent and property crime rates near the two overdose prevention centers (sometimes referred to as safe injection or safe consumption sites) did not increase any more than crime in similar neighborhoods elsewhere in the city. This was in spite of the fact that the police conducted 83 percent fewer drug arrests near the sites (likely to avoid deterring people with addiction from using them) compared with other harm reduction sites that did not offer safe injection.

“We did not observe any increase in crime or disorder or any of the things that people worry about when they see an overdose prevention site opening,” said a study co-author, Brandon Del Pozo, an assistant professor of medicine at Brown University and a former New York Police Department precinct commander and police chief of Burlington, Vt.

15) Running versus walking for health. Personally, I’m a fan of both:

So how does running compare with walking? It’s more efficient, for one thing, said Duck-chul Lee, a professor of physical activity epidemiology at Iowa State University.

Why? It’s more than the increased speed. Rather than lifting one foot at a time, running involves a series of bounds. This requires more force, energy and power than walking, Dr. Olenick said. For many people first starting out, running at any pace — even a slow jog — will make your heart and lungs work harder. That can raise your level of effort to what’s known as vigorous activity, meaning you’re breathing hard enough that you can speak only a few words at a time.

Federal health guidelines recommend 150 minutes to 300 minutes per week of moderate-intensity aerobic activity, like brisk walking, or half as much for vigorous activity. That might suggest that running is twice as good as walking. But when it comes to the key outcome of longevity, some studies have found running to be even more effective than that.

In 2011, researchers in Taiwan asked more than 400,000 adults how much vigorous exercise (like jogging or running) and moderate exercise (like brisk walking) they did. They found that regular five-minute runs extended subjects’ life spans as much as going for 15-minute walks did. Regular 25-minute runs and 105-minute walks each resulted in about a 35 percent lower risk of dying during the following eight years.

Those numbers make sense, given running’s effect on fitness. In a 2014 study, Dr. Lee and his colleagues found that regular runners — including those jogging slower than 6 miles per hour — were 30 percent fitter than walkers and sedentary people. They also had a 30 percent lower risk of dying over the next 15 years.

Even though he’s an enthusiastic proponent of running, Dr. Lee suggested looking at walking and running as being on a continuum. “The biggest benefit occurs when moving from none to a little” exercise, he said.

16) All these new electronic point-of-sale terminals have made tipping totally out of control.  I hate it– just charge what you need to to make your business work; don’t ask me to pay your employees separately.  Tracy Moore in the Post, “Tipping is now officially out of control”

I was just leaving a new grab-and-go market in my neighborhood last weekend when the checkout screen suggested I add a tip. With an employee hovering about, I selected 10 percent. In my routine tipping fog, it took a few seconds before I realized that I had handed over an extra $1.70 on a bag of already marked-up coffee beans.

The moment is a reminder that tipping is out of control. Gratuity prompts have become so widespread and indiscriminate that a new study from the Pew Research Center shows it is causing mass confusion and frustration. We’ve been prompted to tip for any counter service for some time, but nudges are now popping up at self-service kiosks at stadiums, airports and cafes. More is coming: Having new windows installed in your home? Tip it up, America…

Before you call me a cheapskate, I’m not here to criticize or diminish the hard-working folks behind the counter — or the internet’s virtual service walls — or anywhere else. I blame the stingy employers that profit by making customers responsible for their refusal to pay a decent wage.

Tipping has always been debated, but we broadly agreed on its purpose: A gratuity one gives after a service is rendered to reward the human effort and care demonstrably provided, in what is sometimes thought of as low-wage or underpaid work. We tip after the sit-down meal, after admiring our new haircut, after the bartender whips up a drink. We might tip a valet up front to take care of our car, but it is not necessary to do so to receive the service in the first place.

Or at least, it wasn’t. It now seems that I can’t buy anything without being prompted to tip before service is rendered, upending the traditional why of tipping. Case in point: food delivery apps, where front-loading a tip is not only customary but necessary for the order to even be picked up. It’s a practice referred to as no tip, no trip. To be clear, you might still receive the food late, cold or wrong. Or you might not get it at all. But, by then, the tip is out of your hands and in someone else’s pocket.

Some ride-hailing apps routinely ask for a tip soon after the trip begins. And some online purchases are turning our virtual carts into tip jars, too. Last week, a friend in Pittsburgh sent me a screenshot of a tip prompt from an Instagram shop after purchasing a cushion for an office chair. The prompt had invited him to “show some support for the team.”

17) And Peter Coy on the economics of tipping:

As for why businesses encourage tipping, economists have two explanations. First, monitoring. Service businesses can’t always observe how well their employees — waiters, drivers, etc. — are performing on the job. Tipping can help. The companies minimize the risk that the employees will secretly shirk by making part of their compensation dependent on customer satisfaction.

Second, tipping helps businesses with pricing. Tipping allows businesses to effectively charge different prices based on what customers are willing to pay. People who are rich or generous or like great service tend to pay big tips; others who are on tight budgets or are price-conscious or just cheap tend to give small tips or none. A restaurant can keep its menu prices lower by paying its wait staff less and counting on big tippers to make up the difference in their income. The nontippers are at least filling tables.

But the current trend toward paying tips before the service is rendered seems to undermine the monitoring function of tipping, since tips are no longer as sensitive to the quality of service. In fact, DoorDash will let you increase your tip if the service is great but not reduce it if the service turns out really bad. That’s to prevent tip baiting, in which unscrupulous customers put in a big tip to get quick delivery and then rescind it after the food arrives.

Anthony Gill, a professor of political economy at the University of Washington, wrote a three-part series on the economics of tipping for the American Institute for Economic Research. He told me that customers resent being told that they will get worse service if they don’t tip. He said he appreciates the “graciousness” of the tipping tradition. “Technology is chipping away at this institution that I have loved,” he said. I see his point, although traditional tipping isn’t always gracious. Customers can behave very badly when all the tipping power is in their hands.

 

DeSantis for Slovaks

I was asked about DeSantis for Slovakian Pravda.  Here you go:

1. How do you assess the chances of Ron DeSantis winning the GOP primaries and winning general elections?

Though DeSantis is not looking so great right now, I still think he has a very reasonable chance of capturing the Republican nomination.  Yes, lots of candidates have flamed out in the past.  But, also, lots of candidates looked strong, went through a stage where they were written off, and then came back to win the nomination (both Biden and John McCain).  So, given DeSantis‘ clear strengths as a major Republican national figure, popular governor of a key state, and zealous culture warrior, he absolutely has a pretty good chance at capturing the nomination.  The oft-remarked upon problem for DeSantis is that he is trying to be “Trumpism without Trump.”  But, it would seem that, even with all the personal and political baggage Trump brings, Republican voters seemingly prefer Trumpism with Trump himself.  Again, this can change, but DeSantis absolutely has to find a new path to winning over Trump voters because what he’s doing is not working in that regard.  Running in the “Trumpism” lane with the disadvantage of not being Trump, does not seem to be an effective strategy.  
 
2. And the related question. How would you describe De Santis as a politician? He is not Trump and he is heavily involved in the culture wars. Do you think he will continue to use it in the campaign? Does he have any other topic he can rely on? E. g. he has zero foreign policy credentials.
 
There’s a tried-and-true strategy for governors– “look at all the great things I have done in my state, especially economically.”  This is absolutely available to DeSantis, but he just seems so completely committed to being a culture war figure.  I think he’s starting to get at that with “Make America Florida” but what he is known for in Florida is not at all an economic or good governance record, but culture war fights over schools, universities, Disney, etc.  I do think DeSantis is a good politician (he would not be where he is, otherwise), but I think, to a degree, he has become too obsessively focused on culture war fights in a way which will almost surely be a significant hindrance in a general election campaign. 
 

I enjoyed hearing John Dickerson making a similar point about DeSantis ignoring this obvious strategy on this week’s Political Gabfest.

As for the other stuff, I was tempted to reply to the email, “just read Nate Cohn’s latest– I totally agree with that”  So, here’s some of that:

But as he finally announces a presidential bid, expected later today, it is worth mulling his path back to contention. Despite it all, Ron DeSantis could still be the next Republican nominee.

That might seem hard to imagine, but fortunes can change astonishingly quickly in presidential primaries. There are still more than six months until the Iowa caucuses, and there will be plenty of opportunities for him to right his ship.

In the end, the factors that made Mr. DeSantis formidable at the beginning of the year could prove to be more significant than the stumbles and miscues that have recently hobbled him. The damage is not yet irreparable.

Of course, the fact that he could mount a comeback doesn’t mean he will come back. His campaign’s decision to announce his bid on Twitter tonight forfeits a rare opportunity to be televised live on multiple networks in favor of a feature, Twitter Spaces, that I don’t even know how to use as a frequent Twitter user. And even if his campaign is ultimately run differently than it has been so far, it’s not clear that even a perfectly run Republican campaign would defeat Donald J. Trump — at least if the former president survives his various legal challenges politically unscathed.

But if you’re tempted to write off Mr. DeSantis, you might want to think again. The history of primary elections is littered with candidates who are written off, only to surge into contention. Unknown candidates like Herman Cain briefly become front-runners. Early front-runners like Joe Biden and John McCain are written off, then come back to win. Even Barack Obama spent six months struggling and trailing an “inevitable” Hillary Clinton by double digits.

Perhaps one day we’ll say something similar about Mr. DeSantis’s candidacy. As with the candidates who ultimately surged back to victory, the strengths that made Mr. DeSantis seem so promising after the midterms are still there today. He still has unusually broad appeal throughout the Republican Party. His favorability ratings remain strong — stronger than Mr. Trump’s — even though his standing against Mr. Trump has deteriorated in head-to-head polling. He is still defined by issues — like the fight against “woke” and coronavirus restrictions — that also have broad appeal throughout his party. If this was enough to be a strong contender in January, there’s reason it might be again.

While it’s easy to see Mr. DeSantis’s decline over the last few months as a sign of profound weakness, the volatility of the polling can also be interpreted to mean there’s a large group of voters open to both candidates. They might be prone to lurch one way or the other, depending on the way the political winds are blowing.

Mr. DeSantis’s strategy so far this year may have also increased the likelihood of big swings. As I wrote last week, there are two theories for defeating the former president — Trumpism without Trump, and a reinvigorated conservative alternative to Trump. Of the two, the proto-DeSantis campaign can more easily be interpreted as a version of Trumpism without Trump. If his campaign has done anything, it’s to narrow any disagreement with Mr. Trump — even to a fault. Mr. DeSantis hasn’t really made either an explicit or implicit case against the former president. Perhaps worse, he hasn’t punched back after being attacked.

This combination of choices has helped set up an unusually rapid decline in Mr. DeSantis’s support. After all, the only thing that unifies a hypothetical Trumpism without Trump coalition is opposition to Mr. Trump and the prospect of beating him. If you’re not attacking him and you’re losing to him, then you’re not saying or doing the only two things that can hold your supporters together.

Short version: Don’t write off DeSantis just yet.  But, so far he’s sure not going about this like somebody who has what it takes to win.

More election analysis for Slovaks

Upon further reading this morning, definitely feeling I made the right call last night.  Here’s my email interview with Slovakian Pravda:

1. In your opinion, what are the main reasons why Republican Glenn Youngkin just won the governor’s race in Virginia?
Honestly, you’ve got an unpopular president the year after the election– it’s a recipe for the opposition party to take that seat.  In fact, the party that lost the presidency has won the VA governor’s race the next year 10 out of 11 times.  So, despite all the talk about Trump, and Critical Race Theory, and whatever verbal mis-steps McAuliffe made about schools, the big picture is that this is a political context where the Republican can be expected to win this race.  Throw in the fact that while a Democrat won in NJ, the margins also shifted substantially in a Republican direction, and the fairest conclusion is that November 2021 is a favorable political environment for Republicans and that Youngkin was a strong enough and skilled enough candidate to take advantage.
2. While Youngkin was not directly endorsed by Donald Trump, is this the sign of possible Trump’s return? What does Tuesday election night tell us about the chances of Democrats to defend their majority in the Congress in 2022 and to defend  the White House in 2024?
Realistically, Democrats should be very worried.  Even before last night, all signs pointed to a tough 2022 for Democrats (especially because of ongoing Republican gerrymandering in the latest redistricting).  Last night just confirms that, barring major changes to the current context (which could happen in a pandemic!), Republicans are in a strong position to take back both the House and Senate in 2022.  As for 2024, I do think it’s too early to speculate.  A lot can happen in three years, but I do think it is clear that if he wants it (and it sure seems he does), Trump will be the 2024 Republican nominee.

And while I’m here on the topic.  Jonathan Bernstein was so on-point this morning I even shared it directly with my wife:

You’re going to hear plenty of explanations, but if you actually want to know what happened, it’s pretty straightforward. This is the 11th out of the last 12 times that the president’s party lost the Virginia gubernatorial election — the numbers in New Jersey are similar — and with President Joe Biden currently at 43% approval measured by public opinion polls, the result was pretty much what one would expect.

If Biden is at 43% or lower a year from now, the chances are very good that Republicans will win big in the midterms. Of course, the next question is why Biden’s popularity has slumped, but the bulk of that is surely about the latest pandemic wave and a mediocre economic quarter. Sure, other things may have mattered on the margins, both for Biden’s popularity and the Virginia and New Jersey elections, and the margins can be extremely important when it comes to winning and losing. But the big picture isn’t very complicated. Republicans are doing well because there’s an incumbent Democrat president, and he’s not very popular right now. Just as Democrats did very well in 2017 with an unpopular Republican in the White House.

That’s the bulk of what actually happened.

And a related important point from Matt Glassman:

And more Bernstein:

Party scholar Seth Masket’s wonderful book, “Learning From Loss,” studied the ways that Democrats came to understand how they lost the 2016 presidential election, and how that produced a focus within the party on “electability” (defined in a particular way) that eventually heavily influenced the nomination of Biden in 2020. What’s important was not whether an interpretation is correct in some absolute sense, but whether the party, or at least important parts of the party, come to believe it.

And all of this is as true for winning as it is for losing. Republicans, too, will examine what happened on Tuesday and their conclusions will affect how they behave. This year’s Republican rejectionism in Congress was a predictable consequence of their interpretation of their landslides after similar behavior in the 1994 and 2010 midterm elections following Democratic wins in 1992 and 2008.

So whatever the parties wind up believing about Tuesday’s election results really matters. Will Republicans conclude that culture wars, including attacks on the way U.S. racial history is taught in schools, are the key to future victories? Will they listen to former President Donald Trump when he insists he was responsible for their success, or will they decide that keeping him at arm’s length or more was actually why things worked out well? Will they try to find ways to emulate Virginia and avoid high-profile contested primaries?

Trump and Biden for Slovaks

As I’m wont to do, I’ll share here my responses for an email interview about Trump and Biden for Slovakian Pravda.

1. What is Trump’s greatest strength(s) and what about his biggest political weakness(es), and why? For a broadly unpopular president, what is notable about Trump is the intense devotion from his core of supporters.  There is almost a cult of personality around him that we are not used to seeing with American leaders.  His projection of a caricature of masculine “strength” at all costs and authoritarian tendencies clearly have a strong appeal to a lot of people.  His unprecedented dishonesty and shamelessness in his dishonesty also proves very successful when aided by a right-wing media ecosystem (e..g, Fox News) where large numbers of his supporters are thus, essentially, living in an alternate political reality.  In many ways, he has simply figured out that by being entirely unconstrained by the truth and likewise unconstrained by longstanding norms of democratic governance he can actually get away with it.
His weakness is that he is just not very good at being president.  His grasp of major policies is tenuous at best.  Because he is in a self-reinforcing loop with Fox News, he is also far to willing to believe his own reality and fail to take steps that would improve his standing politically.  This is eminently clear with Covid, where the political incentives all aligned for him to take a far more active and robust approach in combatting the virus, but he has largely failed to do so and increasingly relies on magical thinking (it will be gone in a few weeks).  Politically, he is great at appealing to his base, but his base is a clear minority, and not good at all at reaching out beyond his base.  In a two-party system, this is a serious, serious weakness.   

2. And the same for Biden, what is his greatest political strength(s) and his biggest political weakness(es), and why?
I’m sometimes skeptical of a “conventional wisdom” that develops around a candidate, but in Biden’s case, I think it’s right.  It’s that he quite effectively determines where the center of the Democratic Party is, and effectively positions himself there.  As the party has moved left, he has moved left.  But, remaining firmly in the center of that great mass, rather than let himself be pulled to politically disadvantageous extremes.  He’s been so effective at this that, try as they might, Republican attacks have very much failed to paint him as a creature of the far left in America.  (It certainly helped that he won the nomination over a couple of candidates– Warren and Sanders– who were clearly and prominently to his left).  Joe Biden also is a politician who seems to have genuine empathy.  This was a major feature of Bill Clinton’s appeal (“I feel your pain”) and while Biden does not have Clinton’s political gifts, I do think he successfully (and genuinely) appeals to voters in this regard.  As for his weaknesses, he’s just not a very inspiring politician.  People just don’t have the passion for Joe Biden they have for other political figures (including Donald Trump, but also Obama).  In 2020, though, passion against Donald Trump appears to be all that Biden really needs. 

Also, I’ll mention that Mike Pesca’s outstanding spiel on the Gist yesterday, really got me thinking about the fundamental threat to democracy of Trump’s shameless lying. Really worth a listen (starting 27:17 in).