The ultimate outcome of the Democratic primaries

There's all this talk now of how the Democratic nomination may not be resolved until the convention in late August, but I just don't see that happening. My prediction is that within a week of the last primaries (June 3), we'll know who the nominee will be.  Once the campaign has been run and all the primaries and caucuses have occurred, there's really no rational basis for the superdelegates to wait until the convention before declaring for either Clinton or Obama.  Consequently, there will be tremendous political and media pressure on the superdelgates to declare their support.  Once enough of them do, the nominee will be a sure bet and the other will have no choice but to drop out.  I think that the bulk of the undecided superdelegates will declare for Obama for a number of reasons:
1) I suspect that most that were inclined to declare for Hillary have already done so,
2) Obama will have the lead in pledged delegates.  Even though it is perfectly reasonable for the superdelegates to overturn a very modest pledged delegate advantage– especially when you consider how arbitrary a lot of the delegate assignment is (e.g., Clinton wins Texas, Obama leaves with more TX delegates)–the political ramifications of this would be huge.  I suspect that you would see African-American turnout drop 40-50% in the general election.  The superdelegates realize the Democratic party could not afford that.  Fair or not, there would be overwhelming negative publicity of the superdelegates overturned the “will of the people.”  They are smart enough to know this (I think). 
3) There seems to be a fair amount of evidence that Obama will help out Democrats more in “down ballot” races (e.g., Congress, governors, etc.) in many places, whereas Hillary might be a drag on these races.
4) Obama has consistently been faring much better against McCain than has Clinton in national polls.  Though I think these hypothetical match-ups this far out need to be taken with many grains of salt, it is nonetheless a powerful piece of evidence in Obama's favor.

So, there you have my prediction: 1st week of June Obama becomes the nominee.

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