Is intermittent fasting popular because it’s hard??

I’ve written a fair amount about intermittent fasting in the past.  Short version: the evidence for its efficacy is not great, but it works really well for my to help maintain weight and spend a lot less time thinking about food.  In other words, I do it because it’s pretty easy for me.  So, I couldn’t let this article by Yasmin Tayag go by without comment:

Intermittent fasting has become far more than just a fad, like the Atkins and grapefruit diets before it. The diet remains popular more than a decade later: By one count, 12 percent of Americans practiced it last year. Intermittent fasting has piqued the interest of Silicon Valley broscollege kids, and older people alike, and for reasons that go beyond weight loss: The diet is used to help control blood sugar and is held up as a productivity hack because of its purported effects on cognitive performance, energy levels, and mood.

But it still isn’t clear whether intermittent fasting leads to lasting weight loss, let alone any of the other supposed benefits. What sets apart intermittent fasting from other diets is not the evidence, but its grueling nature—requiring people to forgo eating for many hours. Fasting “seems so extreme that it’s got to work,” Janet Chrzan, a nutritional anthropologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of Anxious Eaters: Why We Fall for Fad Diets, told me. Perhaps the regime persists not in spite of its difficulty, but because of it. [emphases mine]

Intermittent fasting comes in lots of different forms, which vary in their intensity. The “5:2” version popularized by Mosley involves eating normally for five days a week and consuming only about 600 calories for two. Another popular regime called “16/8” restricts eating to an eight-hour window each day. One of the most extreme is a form of alternate-day fasting that entails full abstinence every other day. Regardless of its specific flavor, intermittent fasting has some clear upsides compared with other fad diets, such as Atkins, Keto, and Whole 30. Rather than a byzantine set of instructions—eat these foods; avoid those—it comes with few rules, and sometimes just one: Don’t eat at this time. Diets can be expensive, yet intermittent fasting costs nothing and requires no special foods or supplements…

Incomplete evidence is typical for dieting fads, which tend to come and go pretty quickly in a way that intermittent fasting hasn’t. (Does anyone remember the Special K and Zone diets? Exactly.) What really sets the practice apart is how hard it is. Skipping meals can send a person into a tailspin; willfully avoiding food for hours or even days on end can feel like torture. The gnawing hunger, crankiness, and reduced concentration associated with fasting usually takes at least a month to dissipate.

Am I nuts or is this just insane hyperbole?  Having dinner before 8pm and waiting to eat again till lunch the next day is not exactly grueling?  Now the idea of going 2 full days each week without eating anything does sound really tough, so I don’t do it.  Nor do all that many other people, to my knowledge.  But simply going 16 hours without food is not some brain-numbing, tortuous experience.  Maybe I’m not particularly susceptible to low blood sugar and feeling “hangry” but I think Tayag needs to consider that she’s particularly sensitive before drawing broad generalizations about why this diet is popular.  I suspect it’s popular because a lot of people have experiences similar to me because the rules are so simple and it’s really not hard to just skip breakfast (or dinner, if that’s your preferred approach). 

College ROI

FREOPP has updated their return on investment analysis for thousands of college majors.  You can check out their tool, here. And here’s their key takeaways on undergraduate degrees:

Key Points

  • This report estimates return on investment (ROI) — how much college increases lifetime earnings, minus the costs of college — for 53,000 different degree and certificate programs.
  • Bachelor’s degree programs have a median ROI of $160,000, but the payoff varies by field of study. Engineering, computer science, nursing, and economics degrees have the highest ROI.
  • Associate degree and certificate programs have variable ROI, depending on the field of study. Two-year degrees in liberal arts have no ROI, while certificates in the technical trades have a higher payoff than the typical bachelor’s degree.
  • Nearly half of master’s degree programs leave students financially worse off. However, professional degrees in law, medicine, and dentistry are extremely lucrative.
  • Around a third of federal Pell Grant and student loan funding pays for programs that do not provide students with a return on investment.

Executive Summary

In recent years, young Americans have expressed more skepticism about the financial value of higher education. While prospective students often ask themselves if college is worth it, this report shows the more important question is when college is worth it.

This report presents estimates of return on investment (ROI) for 53,000 degree and certificate programs ranging from trade schools to medical schools and everything in between. I define ROI as the increase in lifetime earnings that a student can expect when they enroll in a certain degree program, minus the costs of tuition and fees, books and supplies, and lost earnings while enrolled. My preferred measure of ROI accounts for the risk that some students will not finish their programs.

This report updates FREOPP’s previous research on ROI, utilizing new data from the U.S. Department of Education’s College Scorecard.

The findings show that college is worth it more often than not, but there are key exceptions. ROI for the median bachelor’s degree is $160,000, but that median belies a wide range of outcomes for individual programs. Bachelor’s degrees in engineering, computer science, nursing, and economics tend to have a payoff of $500,000 or more. Other majors, including fine arts, education, English, and psychology, usually have a smaller payoff — or none at all.

Alternatives to the traditional four-year degree produce varied results. Undergraduate certificates in the technical trades tend to have a stronger ROI than the median bachelor’s degree. However, many other subbaccalaureate credentials — including associate degrees in liberal arts or general education — have no payoff at all. Field of study is the paramount consideration at both the baccalaureate and subbaccalaureate levels.

Unsurprisingly, STEM and Engineering kick butt, but check out political science here:

I did not read the whole methodology as carefully as I could have, but what I do think it largely ignores is selection bias into different majors and universities.  I’m also very curious how gender might be affecting these calculations.  E.g., a Computer Science major is likely to be a man who takes off little time from the workplace and maximizes earnings, whereas a Psychology or English major is much more likely to be a woman and therefore more likely to let career and earnings take a backseat to family for considerable portions of an adult lifespan.  

Anyway, as my 18-year old son will be starting Engineering at NC State in the Fall, I was pretty damn curious about this.  I sorted all NCSU bachelor’s degrees on earnings 10 years out from degree.  

I think he’s going to do alright.  His top interests are Chemical, Industrial, Biomedical, and Nuclear (the last one does not show up– too few majors?– but based on other schools, right in that mix). 

Meanwhile, you can also just sort by state, so I did all degrees in North Carolina.  The lesson here, I think, is that it is good to go do Duke and if not, Computers.  

Anyway, not perfect, but a pretty damn interesting tool.  And if the stock market crashes, my son can look after me in my retirement :-).  

Authoritarianism is bad for business!

I’ve been meaning to write something about this for a while now, but since I waited I just get to quote heavily from Catherine Rampell’s latest (gift link), “Those who would trade democracy for economic gain would get neither”

Apparently, that’s not so obvious to a few industry titans. Financiers and oil execs have lately bet that another Donald Trump presidency would bring more tax cuts and deregulation, among other near-term financial gains. And, hey, maybe it would. But they should consider also the longer-term economic damage they might endure if they help put an open authoritarian back in office.

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen recently spoke about the “economic case for democracy” at the McCain Institute. Likewise, Brookings Institution senior fellow Vanessa Williamson warned last month about the economic consequences of democratic backsliding and urged the business community to serve as a bulwark for democratic institutions. Both cited research finding causal links between democratic institutions and higher economic growth.

That’s because democracies tend to be better at a whole bunch of things critical to economic flourishing, such as maintaining the rule of law; protecting property rights; providing public goods (education, public health, infrastructure); ensuring policymakers are accountable to all citizens (not just their cronies); and resolving disputes via compromise rather than violence. (Violence, you might have heard, is not great for business.)

There’s more to capitalism that tax cuts, in other words. [emphases mine] Why would anyone engage in a private economic transaction without assurance that their counterparty can be held accountable if they don’t deliver, regardless of political connections? Why would a company invest if it’s unclear whether the state might expropriate their assets without cause?

Or as Yellen aptly put it: “Every day the rule of law supports thousands of other economic decisions — from purchasing a home because you know your deed will be upheld in court to expanding your business because you will be competing based on your ingenuity and hard work, not on the biggest bribe to your local officials.”

These are the attributes that make the United States a better place to do business than, say, Russia or China — whose strongman leaders Trump has explicitly praised and sometimes tried to emulate

“I think some C.E.O.s are telling themselves that there were similar warnings about Trump in 2016, and that they believe he’s so transactional that they can work with him,” New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman explained. They’ll make their deal with their preferred devil, who’ll surely exercise self-restraint.

How naive. Trump is notorious for reneging on his promises — to bankssmall-time contractorspolitical allies and yes, even people who think they’re his friends. This might involve shredding a deal or relationship entirely, or shaking down counterparties for more.

Sure, business leaders might get a few lousy tax cuts. What else might they get, now that the adults have all left the room? Trump is advertising, and wannabe oligarchs are implicitly endorsing, the idea that U.S. democracy is for sale. What price might Russia or Saudi Arabia need to pay for a similar bargain? Or, for that matter, a significant TikTok investor, who seems to have lately changed Trump’s mind about the Beijing-linked social network?

What happens if these U.S. companies and megadonors get outbid?

U.S. business titans might think they’re trading democracy for financial gain. In reality, they’re gambling both.

How much do Americans know about pregnancy? And does it matter for abortion policy?

1) Not as much as they should! 2) Yes.

Or, so goes the argument from Laurel Elder, Mary-Kate Lizotte, and yours truly in a piece in The Conversation based on our recent research:

Most Americans don’t know two key facts about pregnancy, including how they are dated and how long a trimester is – and this could matter, as a growing number of states place restrictions on abortion.

Florida enacted a new law on May 1, 2024, that bans abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, with a few exceptions – including documented rape, incest and to save the life of the mother…

Some OB-GYNs have explained that many women do not even know they are pregnant at six weeksResearch shows that women on average find out they are pregnant at five and a half weeks. About 23% do not know until seven weeks of pregnancy or later.

So, do Americans, including those enacting six-week bans, actually understand how the timing or dating of pregnancy works?…

To gain insights into this issue, we developed a few pregnancy questions and included them in a research survey in late September 2023. The survey had 1,356 respondents, who were broadly representative of the U.S. population. The respondents’ median age was 46. Approximately 49% of these people were men, while 70% were white and 29% were college graduates. Meanwhile, 43% of them were Democrats, and 38% were Republicans.

The first question asked respondents how pregnancies are dated. The correct answer is that pregnancies are dated using the first day of the woman’s last menstrual period, which is often two to three weeks before conception.

The second question asked about trimesters. Many Americans are familiar with the term trimester, and polling consistently shows that Americans find abortion most acceptable during the first trimester. We asked Americans if they knew approximately how many weeks a trimester was. The correct answer is 13.

Americans’ pregnancy knowledge

We found that only one-third of respondents knew how pregnancy is dated. A majority – approximately 60% – falsely thought that pregnancy is dated from conception or in the weeks since the woman last had sex. Less than one-fourth of the respondents answered both pregnancy knowledge questions correctly.

In our survey, we also asked respondents whether they support a six-week abortion ban. Similar to other national surveys, we find that most Americans oppose strict abortion restrictions – only 35% support six-week bans.

Importantly, we find that those who support six-week abortion bans are significantly less likely than others to correctly understand the timing of pregnancy. The statistically significant relationship between having low levels of pregnancy timing knowledge and support for a six-week abortion ban holds in analyses controlling for potentially confounding variables.

And, if you want the full academic version, you can read it here

 

How to do protests

Love this from Drum:

Kevin Engel, a student protester at Dartmouth, explains why they won’t give up:

“We’re not going to stop,” he said. “Palestine will be free within our lifetimes. The students are taking up the burden of doing that work because no one else really is.”

Engel is 19 years old and he’s just one guy, but I still can’t get over the hubris and ignorance on display here. I mean, “no one else really is”? Seriously? The fate of Palestine has been a burning worldwide issue for nearly a century. It’s prompted multiple wars, half a dozen terrorist groups, UN resolutions by the bushel, endless peace talks, the only nuclear program in the Middle East, tens of thousands of rockets launched into Israel, and so many newspaper headlines as to be uncountable. But Engel thinks that living in a tent while attending an Ivy League university is “doing the work”?

Umm, indeed.  But what’s even better is this top comment:

In a democracy, the best way to effect change in policy is through the political process. Protests can effect change in public opinion, and if so, then policymakers may listen. If you want big change, it’ll take decades (at best).

A few thoughts about winning public support:

1. Take the high moral ground.

2. Don’t engage in any violence.

3. Don’t engage in hate speech such as antisemitic slogans.

4. If you break the law (e.g., break into buildings), understand you may have to pay the consequences (e.g., arrest or suspension).

5. Understand that disruption of normal activities (classes, graduations, etc.) usually leads to negative public opinion.

6. Do you best not to be mockable. (E.g., if you take over a building at Columbia, don’t demand the university send in meals because you already bought a meal ticket. The whole world knows that the cafeteria is just a short walk away. You just look silly.)

7. Understand that if you attend an elite university, you are an elite (or at least an elite-in-training). The public does not have sympathy for elites as a general rule. You need to earn public support by your actions, not assume it.

8. Understand that controversy attracts bad actors. Don’t let your cause be hijacked by those who set back your cause. They will try.

9. Back to #1, taking the high moral ground means drawing clear distinctions between righteous action and immoral action. For example, you do not hurt the cause of the Palestinian people by condemning Hamas for the attack of October 7. But if you fail to condemn terrorism, or make excuses for it, then you are setting back the cause of Palestinians by muddying the clear line between what is right and what is wrong. The public you would like to side with your cause will be tepid or negative.

10. Protests have a long history and many have helped advance the common good. But others have been ineffective, or worse, slowing down or preventing progress. Think about the outcome you want and the best way to achieve it.

11. Politics will determine how the situation in Gaza is settled. Protests in Tel Aviv will probably be more on the mind of the Israeli government than protests in the US. Ultimately, the election in November will determine longer term US policy. If you think “genocide joe” is the problem, you need to think again. Things can be worse. Much worse. (Assuming what’s best for the Palestinian people is what you truly want.)

On the superior mental health of conservatives

This was really good from Thomas Edsall.  And I just sent the gift link to my teenage son, so I figured I might as well share it here, too, “The Happiness Gap Between Left and Right Isn’t Closing”

Why is it that a substantial body of social science research finds that conservatives are happier than liberals?

A partial answer: Those on the right are less likely to be angered or upset by social and economic inequities, believing that the system rewards those who work hard, that hierarchies are part of the natural order of things and that market outcomes are fundamentally fair.

Those on the left stand in opposition to each of these assessments of the social order, prompting frustration and discontent with the world around them.

The happiness gap has been with us for at least 50 years, and most research seeking to explain it has focused on conservatives. More recently, however, psychologists and other social scientists have begun to dig deeper into the underpinnings of liberal discontent — not only unhappiness but also depression and other measures of dissatisfaction.

One of the findings emerging from this research is that the decline in happiness and in a sense of agency is concentrated among those on the left who stress matters of identity, social justice and the oppression of marginalized groups.

How about that– research to suggest that identity politics are literally bad for your mental health!

I asked Judge and other scholars a question: Have liberal pessimists fostered an outlook that spawns unhappiness as its adherents believe they face seemingly insurmountable structural barriers?

 

Judge replied by email:

I do share the perspective that a focus on status, hierarchies and institutions that reinforce privilege contributes to an external locus of control. And the reason is fairly straightforward. We can only change these things through collective and, often, policy initiatives — which tend to be complex, slow, often conflictual and outside our individual control.

On the other hand, if I view “life’s chances” (Virginia Woolf’s term) to be mostly dependent on my own agency, this reflects an internal focus, which will often depend on enacting initiatives largely within my control.

Judge elaborated on his argument:

If our predominant focus in how we view the world is social inequities, status hierarchies, societal unfairness conferred by privilege, then everyone would agree that these things are not easy to fix, which means, in a sense, we must accept some unhappy premises: Life isn’t fair; outcomes are outside my control, often at the hands of bad, powerful actors; social change depends on collective action that may be conflictual; an individual may have limited power to control their own destiny, etc.

These are not happy thoughts because they cause me to view the world as inherently unfair, oppressive, conflictual, etc. It may or may not be right, but I would argue that these are in fact viewpoints of how we view the world, and our place in it, that would undermine our happiness.

Last year, George Yancey, a professor of sociology at Baylor University, published “Identity Politics, Political Ideology, and Well-Being: Is Identity Politics Good for Our Well-Being?”

Yancey argued that recent events “suggest that identity politics may correlate to a decrease in well-being, particularly among young progressives, and offer an explanation tied to internal elements within political progressiveness.”

By focusing on “political progressives, rather than political conservatives,” Yancey wrote, “a nuanced approach to understanding the relationship between political ideology and well-being begins to emerge.”

Identity politics, he continued, focuses “on external institutional forces that one cannot immediately alleviate.” It results in what scholars call the externalization of one’s locus of control, or viewing the inequities of society as a result of powerful if not insurmountable outside forces, including structural racism, patriarchy and capitalism, as opposed to believing that individuals can overcome such obstacles through hard work and collective effort.

As a result, Yancey wrote, “identity politics may be an important mechanism by which progressive political ideology can lead to lower levels of well-being.”

And, it’s Edsall, so it’s long with pretty more good stuff to check out, if you are so inclined.  And, quite relatedly, I just came across this post at Clearer Thinking which hits on similar themes:

1. Life satisfaction

Evidence suggests that progressives are less likely than conservatives to report being satisfied with their lives and more likely to be anxious and depressed. In our own research in the U.S., these correlations with progressivism were moderate in size (r=0.28 for anxiety, r=-0.26 for life satisfaction). 
 
In 2007 (during the Republican presidency of George W. Bush), Gallup found that just 8% of Republicans said their mental health is poor or only fair, whereas 15% of Democrats and 17% of independents said the same thing.
 
 
 

Source: Gallup poll

 
However, this trend does not appear to change when the political parties in power do: this study used data from 2022 (during the Democratic presidency of Joe Biden) and found that, even controlling for factors such as age and church attendance, there was still a difference between the self-reported mental health scores of conservatives and progressives.
 
 
Of course, these are just correlations, and they don’t tell us why these differences exist. One hypothesis that researchers have suggested is that this difference may stem from the fact that being progressive involves being unsatisfied with the status quo (seeking progress), which could naturally lead to a lack of satisfaction.
Further supporting this explanation, researchers have argued that conservatism can be characterized as being what’s known as a “system-justifying ideology“, which offers arguments in support of the status quo. One of the most prominent conservative thinkers of the late 20th century, William F. Buckley Jr., articulated his type of conservatism (and the conservatism of his publication, The National Review) as one that “stands athwart history, yelling Stop”. This suggests a view that the status quo is largely satisfactory (and should be conserved) and might go some way to explaining higher rates of life satisfaction among conservatives…

4. Fundamental Beliefs

Research on fundamental beliefs about the world (“Primals”) has found conservatives are more likely to see the world as hierarchical (taking the view that people, places, and things all have a value and rank). Perhaps relatedly, research typically finds that conservatives tend to be higher in what researchers call “authoritarianism“, which is understood and measured in terms of submission to established authority, conventionalism, and aggression towards sanctioned targets.
 
 
 

Here is a diagram showing how some of these “Primals” were found in research to link to social and economic conservatism:

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Numbers show correlations, and line color relates to correlation strength. All p values are <0.001 except three: the two numbers with asterisks are p<0.01, and the dotted line was not statistically significant.

Pretty interesting stuff!!  I shall quite happily stick with my liberalism focused on better health care for all, a better social safety net for all, and better material outcomes all around, which will definitely disproportionately benefit people of historically marginalized groups, while not overly-focusing on the identity of those groups. 

Quick hits (part II)

1) Noah Smith on how the internet got worse:

Ads ate the free internet (“enshittification”)

 

The term “enshittification” was coined by Cory Doctorow, one of my favorite sci-fi authors, and a keen observer of internet trends. In a Medium post in 2022 and an article in Wired in 2023, he argued that a social media platform has a predictable life-cycle:

  1. First it lures a bunch of users with a great (and free) user experience, to create a network effect that makes it hard for people to leave.

  2. Then, in order to make money, it attracts a bunch of business customers by doing things like selling user data and spamming users with ads. This makes the user experience worse, but the users are trapped on the platform by a network effect.

  3. Finally, the platform tries to extract more value from its business customers by jacking up fees, offering its own competing products, etc. This makes the platform a worse value proposition for the business customers, but because all the users are still on the platform, and because of their own sunk costs, the advertisers can’t leave. This is what Tim O’Reilly calls “eating the ecosystem” — mainly hits businesses.

This is a very plausible model of how social media platforms work. And since platform network effects draw users away from traditional websites, it’s increasingly a description of how the entire public internet works.

But for most regular folks, the only step that matters here is Step 2 — the relentless proliferation of ads and other ways that previous user-friendly social-media platforms monetize their eyeballs.

Google is a great example. For many years, Google was the front page of the internet — a plain, simple text bar where you could type what you were looking for and immediately find websites offering you information about what you wanted. In recent years, though, Google has relentlessly monetized its ad search monopoly by increasing the amount of advertising on the platform. For example, if I want to learn about drones on the Web, there was a time when I could just search for “drones”. Now, the first and second pages of results are all ads trying to get me to buy a drone:

And when I get to the actual search results on the third screen down, it’s all just e-commerce sites offering to sell me more drones. I don’t even get to the Wikipedia link until the fifth screen down!

In other words, using Google is now akin to a video game, where the challenge is to craft a search query that avoids ad spam and gets you to the well-hidden information that you actually want. That’s not the most fun video game in the world, so when I can I now use ChatGPT (which is not yet enshittified). But ChatGPT doesn’t work for a lot of things, and so I’m stuck playing this awful, boring video game of “dodge the ads”.

2) As somewhat of a weather forecast junkie, I loved this, “Weather forecasts have become much more accurate; we now need to make them available to everyone: A four-day forecast today is as accurate as a one-day forecast 30 years ago.”

Three-day forecasts — shown in blue — have been pretty accurate since the 1980s, and have still gotten a lot better over time. Today the accuracy is around 97%.

The biggest improvements we’ve seen are for longer timeframes. By the early 2000s, 5-day forecasts were “highly accurate” and 7-day forecasts are reaching that threshold today. 10-day forecasts aren’t quite there yet but are getting better.

Why have weather forecasts improved?

A few key developments explain these improvements.

The first big change is that the data has improved. More extensive and higher-resolution observations can be used as inputs into the weather models. This is because we have more and better satellite data, and because land-based stations are covering many more areas around the globe, and at a higher density. The precision of these instruments has improved, too.

These observations are then fed into numerical prediction models to forecast the weather. That brings us to the next two developments. The computers on which these models are run have gotten much faster. Faster speeds are crucial: the Met Office now chunks the world into grids of smaller and smaller squares. While they once modeled the world in 90-kilometer-wide squares, they are now down to a grid of 1.5-kilometer squares. That means many more calculations need to be run to get this high-resolution map. The methods to turn the observations into model outputs have also improved. We’ve gone from very simple visions of the world to methods that can capture the complexity of these systems in detail.

The final crucial factor is how these forecasts are communicated. Not long ago, you could only get daily updates in the daily newspaper. With the rise of radio and TV, you could get a few notices per day. Now, we can get minute-by-minute updates online or on our smartphones.

3) This was good.  Everything in moderation… including sunscreen, “Against Sunscreen Absolutism: Moderate sun exposure can be good for you. Why won’t American experts acknowledge that?”

Then, in 2023, a consortium of Australian public-health groups did something surprising: It issued new advice that takes careful account, for the first time, of the sun’s positive contributions. The advice itself may not seem revolutionary—experts now say that people at the lowest risk of skin cancer should spend ample time outdoors—but the idea at its core marked a radical departure from decades of public-health messaging. “Completely avoiding sun exposure is not optimal for health,” read the groups’ position statement, which extensively cites a growing body of research. Yes, UV rays cause skin cancer, but for some, too much shade can be just as harmful as too much sun.

It’s long been known that sun exposure triggers vitamin D production in the skin, and that low levels of vitamin D are associated with increased rates of stroke, heart attack, diabetes, cancer, Alzheimer’s, depression, osteoporosis, and many other diseases. It was natural to assume that vitamin D was responsible for these outcomes. “Imagine a treatment that could build bones, strengthen the immune system and lower the risks of illnesses like diabetes, heart and kidney disease, high blood pressure and cancer,” The New York Times wrote in 2010. “Some research suggests that such a wonder treatment already exists. It’s vitamin D.” By 2020, more than one in six adults were on that wonder treatment in the form of daily supplements, which promise to deliver the sun’s benefits without its dangers.

But sunlight in a pill has turned out to be a spectacular failure. In a large clinical trial that began in 2011, some 26,000 older adults were randomly assigned to receive either daily vitamin D pills or placebos, and were then followed for an average of five years. The study’s results were published in The New England Journal of Medicine two years ago. An accompanying editorial, with the headline “A Decisive Verdict on Vitamin D Supplementation,” noted that no benefits whatsoever had been found for any of the health conditions that the study tracked. “Vitamin D supplementation did not prevent cancer or cardiovascular disease, prevent falls, improve cognitive function, reduce atrial fibrillation, change body composition, reduce migraine frequency, improve stroke outcomes, decrease age-related macular degeneration, or reduce knee pain,” the journal said. “People should stop taking vitamin D supplements to prevent major diseases or extend life.”

Australia’s new guidance is in part a recognition of this reality. It’s also the result of our improved understanding of the disparate mechanisms through which sunlight affects health. Some of them are intuitive: Bright morning light, filtered through the eyes, helps regulate our circadian rhythms, improving energy, mood, and sleep. But the systemic effects of UV light operate through entirely different pathways that have been less well understood by the public, and even many health professionals. In recent years, that science has received more attention, strengthening conviction in sunlight’s possibly irreplaceable benefits. In 2019, an international collection of researchers issued a call to arms with the headline “Insufficient Sun Exposure Has Become a Real Public Health Problem.”

4) This is encouraging,  “Giant Batteries Are Transforming the Way the U.S. Uses Electricity: They’re delivering solar power after dark in California and helping to stabilize grids in other states. And the technology is expanding rapidly.” Gift article with cool visuals, check it out. And a nice summary tweet.

5) Yglesias on, “How to make a difference in the 2024 election”

That said, notwithstanding my love for the Le Tigre song “Get Off The Internet,” I think it’s actually true that two of the best things you can do to defeat the MAGA movement do, in fact, happen online: giving money intelligently and posting mindfully.

I’m of course not against finding a way to volunteer for political campaigns, especially if you live in a swing state or a place with a contested Senate race or near a frontline House district. But I do think there is a romance to political volunteerism that is not borne out by the facts. There’s a reason commercial enterprises don’t typically market their products by having strangers knock on doors, telling people about the Verizon 5G network. Advertising campaigns and free communication in the media are much more efficient ways to get a message across. There can be lots of benefits to volunteering, including that you may build your own sense of agency or be able to recruit friends to do it with you and create longer-term social capital. I definitely don’t discourage it.

But if you’re really worried, give money. If you’re interested in maximizing your efficacy, give money. If you want to dedicate time and not just money to good causes, then consider getting a part-time job and giving that money.

Something that I think isn’t widely understood is that hard money contributions to political candidates are a lot more valuable, dollar-for-dollar, than Super PAC contributions. Part of this is because the coordination rules, though full of holes, are genuinely not meaningless, and it’s a lot easier for the campaign proper to use resources effectively. The biggest reason, though, is that campaigns receive (by law) preferential rates from television stations. So $1 million of small contributions genuinely buys more ads than $1 million from an outside group. And last but not least, as a donor to a campaign, you can communicate with the candidate you are supporting and urge them to emphasize electability and winning. A lot of candidates believe that hard-core progressive messages are needed to keep the money flowing, and the best way to change that is to send money and speak your mind.

But give money to who? One obvious choice is Joe Biden’s re-election campaign. If you want to beat Trump, then supporting Trump’s opponent is a very good idea.

That said, money is more valuable down-ballot, and I also don’t think you need me to tell you that Trump is running against Biden. After consulting with the smartest people I know in the business, my recommendation is to prioritize eight House seats, a couple of state supreme court elections, and the best funder of abortion ballot campaigns. More details below.

6) Sad. “They gave local news away for free. Virtually nobody wanted it.”

When 2,529 people were offered a free subscription to their local newspapers, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and the Philadelphia Inquirer, only forty-four accepted—less than 2 percent—according to an academic study set to be published this year in the American Journal of Political Science

Dan Hopkins, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, conducted the study, titled “Unsubscribed and Undemanding,” in 2021. The purpose of the research, Hopkins said, was to assess practical ways to increase interest in local or regional news for an audience that seems more interested in national, partisan media outlets. (The pool of those offered subscriptions was made up of locals who had previously responded to political surveys.) Hopkins said that he was “surprised and dismayed” when he realized that only 1.7 percent had accepted the free subscription. 

The findings add context to what has been a difficult start to 2024 for American media. There have been hundreds of layoffs across the industry—the Washington PostWall Street JournalLos Angeles Times, Sports Illustrated, and Business Insider, among others, have all downsized. At the local level, half the counties in America have either one news outlet or none at all, according to Medill’s 2023 State of Local News Project. Of those counties, over two hundred are “news deserts,” without any local media whatsoever. 

7) I always enjoy reading Johann Hari, “A Year on Ozempic Taught Me We’re Thinking About Obesity All Wrong”

The primary reason we have gained weight at a pace unprecedented in human history is that our diets have radically changed in ways that have deeply undermined our ability to feel sated. My father grew up in a village in the Swiss mountains, where he ate fresh, whole foods that had been cooked from scratch and prepared on the day they were eaten. But in the 30 years between his childhood and mine, in the suburbs of London, the nature of food transformed across the Western world. He was horrified to see that almost everything I ate was reheated and heavily processed. The evidence is clear that the kind of food my father grew up eating quickly makes you feel full. But the kind of food I grew up eating, much of which is made in factories, often with artificial chemicals, left me feeling empty and as if I had a hole in my stomach. In a recent study of what American children eat, ultraprocessed food was found to make up 67 percent of their daily diet. This kind of food makes you want to eat more and more. Satiety comes late, if at all.

One scientific experiment — which I have nicknamed Cheesecake Park — seemed to me to crystallize this effect. Paul Kenny, a neuroscientist at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, grew up in Ireland. After he moved in 2000 to the United States, when he was in his 20s, he gained 30 pounds in two years. He began to wonder if the American diet has some kind of strange effect on our brains and our cravings, so he designed an experiment to test it. He and his colleague Paul Johnson raised a group of rats in a cage and gave them an abundant supply of healthy, balanced rat chow made out of the kind of food rats had been eating for a very long time. The rats would eat it when they were hungry, and then they seemed to feel sated and stopped. They did not become fat.

But then Dr. Kenny and his colleague exposed the rats to an American diet: fried bacon, Snickers bars, cheesecake and other treats. They went crazy for it. The rats would hurl themselves into the cheesecake, gorge themselves and emerge with their faces and whiskers totally slicked with it. They quickly lost almost all interest in the healthy food, and the restraint they used to show around healthy food disappeared. Within six weeks, their obesity rates soared.

After this change, Dr. Kenny and his colleague tweaked the experiment again (in a way that seems cruel to me, a former KFC addict). They took all the processed food away and gave the rats their old healthy diet. Dr. Kenny was confident that they would eat more of it, proving that processed food had expanded their appetites. But something stranger happened. It was as though the rats no longer recognized healthy food as food at all, and they barely ate it. Only when they were starving did they reluctantly start to consume it again.

Though Dr. Kenny’s study was in rats, we can see forms of this behavior everywhere. We are all living in Cheesecake Park — and the satiety-stealing effect of industrially assembled food is evidently what has created the need for these medications. Drugs like Ozempic work precisely by making us feel full. Carel le Roux, a scientist whose research was important to the development of these drugs, says they boost what he and others once called “satiety hormones.”

8) Jonathan Bernstein on the Democrats saving Mike Johnson:

That leaves the Democrats, who saved Johnson after letting former McCarthy be defeated last year.3 The situations seem similar; last October a handful of Republicans tried to oust McCarthy after he first agreed to a debt limit increase and then an extension to expiring spending bills, thus preventing a debt limit breach and then a governnment shutdown. This time, Johnson allowed a vote on Ukraine aid. In each of these cases, a House majority favored the bill – but enough Republicans opposed the measures that they would have failed without Democratic votes.

Some of the difference, according to reporting, was that Johnson simply proved more trustworthy than McCarthy.

The truth is, however, that these seemingly similar situations were actually quite different. The impasses that McCarthy eventually “solved” were phony ones that he and other Republicans created out of nothing. Republicans aren’t actually in favor of the US defaulting on its debt or the government shutting down; they were merely using those threats to blackmail Democrats into agreeing to policy concessions. And McCarthy was – at least until he wasn’t – fully on board with that strategy, which Democrats were correct to oppose.

Indeed, given that the (supposedly unpopular) debt limit vote is properly the responsibility of the majority party and that the spending bills were real compromises, Democrats were doing McCarthy a favor by supplying the votes.

On the other hand, quite a few Republicans appeared to sincerely oppose aiding Ukraine, while Democrats were eager to vote for it. Democrats may not have liked the policy implications of the long delay, but Johnson wasn’t manuevering them into casting tough votes, as McCarthy had. No wonder they were eager to dump McCarthy. And that they are now willing to live with Johnson.

So far. Congress still have a number of key deadlines between now and the election, the most notable of which is the end of the fiscal year, at which point temporary spending extensions will once again be needed to prevent a government shutdown only weeks before the election.

The normal procedure when Congress can’t finish it’s work is to simply pass short-term extensions – in this case, until they return for a lame-duck session after the election. Radical Republicans, however, may push for a government shutdown – and for other popular programs with upcoming deadlines to expire, causing chaos during the peak of the campaign, on the assumption that the Democratic president will suffer.

House Democrats are basically acting sensibly in bailing Johnson out in the aftermath of the Ukraine vote. But to keep saving him from the next round of radical Republican sniping, Democrats should insist on, well, business as usual. Either Congress gets things done on time, or Johnson allows votes on temporary extensions for spending bills, farm programs, the FAA, and anything else that’s needed.

If not? Well, there’s still plenty of time in this Congress for another Speaker.

9) I heard about this first-hand!  The 4-year old victim is the daughter of a good friend of mine (and NCSU PS grad), “Rabies alert: 4-year-old girl bitten by rabid fox in Raleigh neighborhood: Wake County Public Health has issued a rabies notice after a rabid fox bit a child in a Raleigh neighborhood.”

10) Some cool social science, “The Causal Effects of a Trump Endorsement on Voter Preferences in a General Election Scenario”

Former President Trump’s persistent influence over Republican politics divides those who argue that he mobilizes otherwise apathetic voters against those contending he mobilizes Democrats at down-ballot Republicans’ expense. Scholars and pundits alike question whether policy still matters in the face of increasingly strong personas like the former president’s. Using a survey experiment, we find suggestive evidence that Trump’s endorsement in a general election reduces the likelihood of voting for a hypothetical Republican candidate. We also test the effect of policy stances and find evidence that Republican respondents value policy stances over an endorsement, but Democrats show no signs of prioritizing one more than the other. However, when shown a hypothetical candidate with unorthodox policy stances, the mere mention of a Trump endorsement leads members of both parties to demonstrate significant changes in the likelihood of voting for that candidate. Ultimately, we show that elite signals can attenuate support derived from policies.

11) Very cool study on personality tests from Clearer Thinking:

Key takeaways from our study 

 
  • Big Five Superiority: The Big Five personality test framework outperformed the other two frameworks that we tested – Jungian (MBTI-inspired) and Enneagram in predicting life outcomes.

 
accuracy of personality tests
 
  • Neuroticism’s Impact: Removing Neuroticism from the Big Five resulted in a substantial drop in predictive accuracy.

  • Continuous vs. Binary: Continuous scores in the Jungian (MBTI-style) framework predicted outcomes substantially better than binary categories (which is important since MBTI-style tests are usually presented in a categorical form)

accuracy of personality tests
 
  • Trait Distribution: Most personality traits approximately formed bell curves, meaning that most people fall near the middle on each trait, suggesting binary categorization (as is typical with MBTI-style tests) might introduce substantial noise.

 
 
accuracy of personality tests
 
  • Jungian (MBTI-style) Limitations: The Jungian 4-letter framework showed less predictive accuracy than the Big Five, mostly due to its use of binary types (splitting participants into letters like I vs. E and N vs. S) and its failure to measure Neuroticism. By adapting the Jungian framework to give continuous scores (rather than categories) and excluding Neuroticism from the Big Five, then the predictive gap between the two frameworks narrows. However, even with these adjustments, the Big Five (without Neuroticism) still slightly outperformed the modified Jungian test (with continuous scores, not binary types).

 
  • Cross-framework Relations: Almost every Jungian trait correlated with a specific Big Five trait: the Jungian Extraversion/Introversion aligned with Big Five’s Extraversion, Intuition/Sensing with Openness, and Feeling/Thinking with Agreeableness. However, the Judging/Perceiving trait was associated with three of the Big Five traits.

 
  • Integration Ineffectiveness: Combining the Big Five and Jungian test results didn’t improve prediction accuracy over using just the Big Five alone. This suggests that the Jungian test does not add significant predictive value beyond what is already captured by the Big Five.

 
  • Enneagram’s Surprisingly Good Performance: Despite its simplicity, the Enneagram binary (using only the 1-digit Enneagram variable – e.g., Type 9) performed better than the binary Jungian Type at predicting life outcomes. However, the Enneagram still underperformed the Big Five.

 
  • Participant Perception: Despite the Jungian test’s lower predictive accuracy, participants felt better after reading their Jungian assessments than their Big Five assessment, likely due to the Jungian test’s positive framing — it feels better to be called “Thinking” than someone “with low Agreeableness”.

 

In short, our study suggests that if you care about how well a personality test can predict outcomes in your life (or other people’s), then the Big Five test is likely superior to a Jungian (MBTI-style) and Enneagram approach. It also suggests that dichotomizing traits into binaries (rather than using continuous scores) substantially reduces predictive accuracy for these tests.

And hooray for me for being about 1st percentile in neuroticism.

12) Interesting, “Powerful Psychedelic Gains Renewed Attention as a Treatment for Opioid Addiction: New research is stirring interest in ibogaine, which appears to help ease the agony of detox and prevent relapse. Used in other countries, it remains illegal in the U.S.”

Ibogaine, a formidable psychedelic made from the root of a shrub native to Central Africa, is not for the timid. It unleashes a harrowing trip that can last more than 24 hours, and the drug can cause sudden cardiac arrest and death.

But scientists who have studied ibogaine have reported startling findings. According to a number of small studies, between a third and two-thirds of the people who were addicted to opioids or crack cocaine and were treated with the compound in a therapeutic setting were effectively cured of their habits, many after just a single session.

Ibogaine appears to provide two seemingly distinct benefits. It quells the agony of opioid withdrawal and cravings and then gives patients a born-again-style zeal for sobriety.

Now, after decades in the shadows, and with opioid overdose deaths exceeding 100,000 a year, ibogaine is drawing a surge of fresh interest from researchers who believe it has the potential to treat opioid use disorder.

“It’s not an exaggeration to say that ibogaine saved my life, allowed me to make amends with the people I hurt and helped me learn to love myself again,” said Jessica Blackburn, 37, who is recovering from heroin addiction and has been sober for eight years. “My biggest frustration is that more people don’t have access to it.”

That’s because ibogaine is illegal in the United States. Patients have to go abroad for ibogaine therapy, often at unregulated clinics that provide little medical oversight.

13) I found the struggle of girls’ HS basketball in NC very interesting:

Whatever it is, in the 2023-24 season, a theme has emerged in girls’ basketball and it doesn’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon:

You’re either really good these days — or you’re not.

The gap between North Carolina’s haves and have-nots has perhaps never been wider.

Just two years ago, for example, West Mecklenburg didn’t win a game, but the Hawks’ average margin of defeat was about 25 points per game.

Two years ago, West Meck’s conference had four teams with a winning record and the Hawks were the only team with fewer than seven wins.

This year?

Three league teams have three or fewer wins, and the scores in that Queen City 3A/4A conference — and around the state — are often eye-popping.

These are some real scores that have been reported to The Charlotte Observer this season: 96-7, 97-5, 102-5. Those types of scores make some other results — 83-34, 74-27, 90-23 — almost seem normal.

And those types of scores are reported every Tuesday and Friday.

“I don’t know what a coach thinks about when you lose 109-5,” Hopewell’s Brown said. “One thing is (your team’s) morale. We address it by saying, ‘We’ve got to put it behind us. We’ve got to persevere.’ That’s an adverse situation. But even though we’re taking a lot of lopsided defeats, we haven’t had the issue with bad body language, demeanor and lack of hope. Anybody that has seen us play knows we play from beginning to end, 32 minutes, hard. That’s whether we’re up or down by 80, 40, 20, 15.”

Where did the girls go?

Area coaches, like Brown, said the Charlotte area has a smaller pool of players than in the past and that more talented players — sometimes directed by summer basketball coaches — are finding ways to come together on a handful of teams.

Taking good players from other schools makes those teams weaker, coaches say, and creates that situation where you have no middle class.

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools did not respond to an Observer request for girls’ basketball participation figures, but anecdotally, coaches have said fewer junior varsity teams are playing and there are fewer players on many varsity teams now, too.

14) It really bugs me that a piece of art can be seen as not all that special and valued at $17,000.  Then figure out it was painted by Rembrandt and it’s worth $14 million.  It’s either great art or it’s not, regardless of who painted it.  In this case, also a really interesting debate about whether it’s really a Rembrandt.  A lot going on here visually you should check out– gift link. 

15) This is pretty wild, “Gut Bacteria May Play Role in Vision Loss”

Summary: Researchers found a surprising connection between gut bacteria and inherited eye diseases, potentially opening new treatment avenues using antimicrobials. They discovered that a specific genetic mutation could weaken the body’s defenses, allowing gut bacteria to infiltrate the eye and cause sight loss.

The study focused on the CRB1 gene, crucial for maintaining the integrity of the eye’s and gut’s barriers. By treating affected mice with antimicrobials, the team successfully prevented blindness without repairing the damaged cellular barriers, suggesting a novel treatment strategy for CRB1-linked eye diseases.

Key Facts:

  1. The study identifies a link between gut bacteria and blindness in mice with a specific genetic mutation affecting the CRB1 gene.
  2. Antimicrobial treatment prevented sight loss in mice, indicating a potential new therapy for inherited eye diseases.
  3. This research could transform the treatment landscape for CRB1-associated eye conditions and possibly extend to other eye diseases.

16) This was a really good piece on suicide in the Morning newsletter a while back:

But something is changing in the United States, where the suicide rate has risen by about 35 percent over two decades, with deaths approaching 50,000 annually. The U.S. is a glaring exception among wealthy countries; globally, the suicide rate has been dropping steeply and steadily.

Barriers are in the works on the William Howard Taft Bridge in Washington, D.C., the Penobscot Narrows Bridge in Maine and several Rhode Island bridges. Universities in Texas and Florida have budgeted millions of dollars for barriers on high structures. Scores of communities are debating similar steps.

Research has demonstrated that suicide is most often an impulsive act, with a period of acute risk that passes in hours, or even minutes. Contrary to what many assume, people who survive suicide attempts often go on to do well: Nine out of 10 of them do not die by suicide.

Policymakers, it seems, are paying attention. I have been reporting on mental health for The New York Times for two years, and in today’s newsletter I will look at promising, evidence-based efforts to prevent suicide.

A single element

For generations, psychiatrists believed that, in the words of the British researcher Norman Kreitman, “anyone bent on self-destruction must eventually succeed.”

Then something strange and wonderful happened: Midway through the 1960s, the annual number of suicides in Britain began dropping — by 35 percent in the following years — even as tolls crept up in other parts of Europe.

No one could say why. Had medicine improved, so that more people survived poisoning? Were antidepressant medications bringing down levels of despair? Had life in Britain just gotten better?

The real explanation, Kreitman discovered, was none of these. The drop in suicides had come about almost by accident: As the United Kingdom phased out coal gas from its supply to household stoves, levels of carbon monoxide decreased. Suicide by gas accounted for almost half of the suicides in 1960.

It turns out that blocking access to a single lethal means — if it is the right one — can make a huge difference.

The strategy that arose from this realization is known as “means restriction” or “means safety,” and vast natural experiments have borne it out. When Sri Lanka restricted the import of toxic pesticides, which people had ingested in moments of crisis, its suicide rate dropped by half over the next decade.

Arresting an urge

More than half of U.S. suicides are carried out with firearms. Guns are a reliably deadly means, resulting in death in about 90 percent of attempted suicides; intentional overdoses, by contrast, result in death about 3 percent of the time.

When an attempt fails, “these folks generally survive and go on to get past these thoughts, go on to live happy, full lives,” said Dr. Paul Nestadt, a suicide researcher at Johns Hopkins. “If you are a gun owner, that brief moment where the suicidal thoughts exceed the desire to be alive for tomorrow, that’s all it takes.”

Other countries, like Israel, have brought down suicide rates dramatically by restricting access to guns. But in the U.S., about 400 million guns are circulating in private hands, said Michael Anestis, who leads the New Jersey Gun Violence Research Center. “We don’t know where they are, and even if we did, we would have no way of getting them,” he said.

Twenty-one states have passed red flag laws, which allow the authorities to remove firearms temporarily from individuals identified as dangerous to themselves or others. A follow-up study found that firearm suicides dropped 7.5 percent in Indiana in the decade after the law’s passage; Connecticut saw a 13.7 percent drop over eight years as the state began to enforce the law in earnest.

Another promising approach is to change gun storage habits, which Anestis likened to public health campaigns around smoking or drunken driving. He threw out some ideas, including financial incentives, such as providing gun owners with a hefty coupon for a gun safe, and encouraging gun shops to install lockers so people could temporarily store their guns outside of the home.

Even brief counseling sessions can change a gun owner’s habits, trials show. Anestis recalled one subject who was particularly dismissive of the counselor’s advice but returned six months later with a different outlook. “Since I was last here, I broke up with my fiancé and I let my brother hold my guns. If I hadn’t done that, I’m pretty sure I’d be dead,” the subject told researchers.

17) Good NYT Editorial on campus speech and protests:

The point of protest is to break such rules, of course, and to disrupt daily routines so profoundly as to grab on to the world’s attention and sympathies. Campuses should be able to tolerate some degree of disruption, which is inherent to any protest. That makes it even more important that school administrators respond when the permissible limits for speech are violated.

During the current demonstrations, a lack of accountability has helped produce a crisis.

It has left some Jewish students feeling systematically harassed. It has deprived many students of access to parts of campus life. On campuses where in-person classes or commencement exercises were canceled, students have watched their basic expectations for a university experience evaporate. And at times, the protesters themselves have been directly endangered — the disarray and violence of the past weeks has been escalated by the continued involvement of both the police and external agitators.

Amid the protests, there has been much discussion of both antisemitism and Islamophobia, and when the line is crossed into hate speech. There are profound risks to imposing overly expansive definitions of inappropriate speech, and universities have been rightly chided for doing so in the past. But it should be easy to agree that no student, faculty member, administrator or university staff member on a campus should be threatened or intimidated. School policies should reflect that, and they should be enforced when necessary.

In the longer term, a lack of clarity around acceptable forms of expression, and a failure to hold those who break those norms to account, has opened up the pursuit of higher learning to the whims of those motivated by hypocrisy and cynicism…

The absence of steady and principled leadership is what opened the campus gates to such cynicism in the first place. For several years, many university leaders have failed to act as their students and faculty have shown ever greater readiness to block an expanding range of views that they deem wrong or beyond the pale. Some scholars report that this has had a chilling effect on their work, making them less willing to participate in the academy or in the wider world of public discourse. The price of pushing boundaries, particularly with more conservative ideas, has become higher and higher.

Schools ought to be teaching their students that there is as much courage in listening as there is in speaking up. It has not gone unnoticed — on campuses but also by members of Congress and by the public writ large — that many of those who are now demanding the right to protest have previously sought to curtail the speech of those whom they declared hateful.

Establishing a culture of openness and free expression is crucial to the mission of educational institutions. That includes clear guardrails on conduct and enforcement of those guardrails, regardless of the speaker or the topic. Doing so would not only help restore order on college campuses today, but would also strengthen the cultural bedrock of higher education for generations to come.

18) Science/biotechnology for the win again, “UK toddler has hearing restored in world first gene therapy trial”

A British toddler has had her hearing restored after becoming the first person in the world to take part in a pioneering gene therapy trial, in a development that doctors say marks a new era in treating deafness.

Opal Sandy was born unable to hear anything due to auditory neuropathy, a condition that disrupts nerve impulses travelling from the inner ear to the brain and can be caused by a faulty gene.

But after receiving an infusion containing a working copy of the gene during groundbreaking surgery that took just 16 minutes, the 18-month-old can hear almost perfectly and enjoys playing with toy drums.

19) Excellent from Thomas Mills, “Rules for vouchers: If we’re going to have state-funded private schools, they need standards and conditions.”

North Carolina Republicans came into power screaming that our public schools are broken and promptly began cutting resources. They would like to shift the financial responsibility for schools to local government, but North Carolina’s constitution says that the state has the responsibility to provide children with a sound basic education. Now, 13 years after they first began writing public school budgets and eight years in control of the Department of Public Instruction, they are still claiming schools are broken. If that’s true, then they broke them, or at the very least, they have failed to fix them. For all of their complaints about public schools, the one thing they have never tried is adequately funding them.

Republicans claim that they want to make schools compete for students. In reality, they want to provide tax breaks for the rich because they don’t believe those who benefit the most from our economic system and society have any obligation to those who struggle. They claimed for years that the purpose of vouchers was to allow financially struggling families to send their children to private schools. Now, they are giving vouchers to families who already send their children to private schools in a direct transfer of money from underfunded school systems to the state’s wealthiest families. Yeah, I’m opposed to that.

I also don’t believe we should be funding private schools that discriminate. Any school that denies entry based on race, religion, sexual orientation, gender or national origin should not receive public funds. If we’re going to ask people who meet those criteria to pay taxes, they should not be forced to have their tax dollars used against them.

Private schools and charters should be held to the same standards and regulations as public schools if they are accepting tax dollars. If public school teachers must post their lesson plans to increase accountability, private school teachers should be required to do the same. Test scores of private schools that accept public money should be made public. Teacher and administrative salaries should be publicly available. Private schools that accept tax dollars should be subject to audits from the state auditor to ensure our money is not being misspent. We should watch over our tax dollars in private schools just as carefully as we watch them in other government programs.

20) Always love reading deBoer on disability issues:

And it’s difference that, I think, needs to really be pulled apart here. Because Rosenbaum is guilty of a kind of slippage that has become very common to disability talk: conjoined twins are normal when normal is a desirable thing to be and not normal when normal is not a desirable thing to be. It’s reminiscent of one of the default images of disability discourse in the 21st century, an autistic person who wants their autism to not result in any special treatment or consideration whatsoever, except in those moments when they think their autism entitles them to special treatment or consideration. It’s the era of “my condition is not a disability, now give me accommodation for my disability or you’re a bigot.”

Throughout, Rosenbaum suggests that normalcy is a bad thing, arguing that the pursuit of normal has hurt the rights of conjoined twins (including through surgically separating them, which she disdains) and of trans people. She goes so far as to mock the Hensel twins for their performance of normalcy; no word on whether it’s possible that they’re acting that way because that is what is natural or comfortable or best for them. That “normal” is not a status to be pursued or lionized is a matter of holy writ in many corners of the disability activist world. And yet you’ll note that it’s also considered a terrible insult to suggest that the disabled are not normal, that to call them abnormal or different or unusual is also assumed to be offensive. I would argue that this is internally contradictory – if you reject normalcy as a goal state then you should embrace abnormality – but this is one of many arguments in this domain that I’ve clearly lost.

I suspect that in fact a good portion of the disabled community writ large wants exactly to be normal, to receive normal treatment, to live normal lives. I suspect that very many of them want elevators and braille and closed captions and a legal doctrine of reasonable accommodation so that they can better achieve normal existence. And I further suspect that the disability activist class has embraced the rejection of normalcy in large part because that class is largely made up of people with the least-debilitating, most-manageable conditions, who suffer little from being not-normal and therefore have far less reason to aspire to normal experience than the average disabled person. I would argue that an essential part of evaluating the claims of a disability activist is to assess to what degree their condition has rendered them unable to live without severe restriction or discomfort. It’s not that, say, the self-diagnosed autistic Harvard student with big ideas and an unflinching attitude doesn’t have anything useful to say or isn’t really disabled. (I mean, they may not be, but who’s to say.) The problem is that most people with disabilities are a) not activists and b) do not confront disability through abstract and deracinated concepts of societal respect and normative judgment but rather through the painful experience of navigating the world with physical and mental impairments (disabilities, problems, disorders, less good things) that hurt them. Meanwhile, we live in a culture where diagnosis increasingly collapses into yet another stab at identity. And the loudest tend to be the ones who have the ability to slip back into normal when they want.

21) Ugh. “Schools in One Virginia County to Reinstate Confederate Names”

After a meeting that lasted for hours, the Shenandoah County school board voted early Friday morning to restore the names of three Confederate officers to schools in the district.

With the vote, the district appears to be the first in the country to return Confederate names to schools that had removed them after the summer of 2020, according to researchers at the Montgomery, Ala.-based Equal Justice Initiative.

The vote rolled back a decision made four years ago, when the killing of George Floyd prompted nationwide demands for a racial reckoning. At a virtual meeting in July 2020, the summer of pandemic and protests, the board voted 5-1 to drop the names of two schools — Ashby-Lee Elementary and Stonewall Jackson High — that it deemed incompatible with a recently passed resolution condemning racism. The schools were renamed the next year as Honey Run and Mountain View.

But a fury had been unleashed in the rural county in the mountains of Virginia. People crowded into school board meetings, denouncing the name changes as secretive and rushed through with little advance notice, and voicing deeper resentments about cultural shifts they saw as being foisted upon them.

Quick hits (part I)

1) Annie Lowery on the mistreatment of dairy cows on even “organic” farms.  Our treatment of the animals for meat and dairy is really unconscionable.  We should all simply pay more so the animals can have a more humane existence.  People say the care about animal welfare, but not enough to pay more or pass laws that truly protect it:

Most american consumers abhor animal cruelty and support laws preventing it. In a recent ASPCA survey, three-quarters or more of respondents said they were concerned about farm-animal welfare and supported a ban on new factory farms. Yet cruelty, even egregious cruelty, against farm animals is often legal, provided that the suffering is “necessary” and “justifiable” by the need for farms to produce food, David Rosengard of the Animal Legal Defense Fund told me.

To determine what is “necessary” and “justifiable,” lawyers and juries often look at what farms are already doing, what agricultural schools are teaching, and what Big Ag publications recommend. In effect, I gathered, animal-welfare law is slanted toward the needs of farms much more than the experience of animals.

Even gratuitously abusive treatment often goes unpunished. Local authorities have jurisdiction over most animal-cruelty complaints. But cows, pigs, and chickens are not great at picking up the telephone to call those authorities. Animal-rights activists are able to perform investigations only sporadically, and at significant legal risk to themselves. Farm workers, many of whom are undocumented immigrants, rarely report violations.

What is a consumer who wants to support a gentle, green system of agriculture to do? DeCoriolis of Farm Forward had a blunt answer: Give up dairy. “As a consumer, you’re just playing roulette,” he told me. Yet the overwhelming majority of American consumers are unwilling to give up milk or cheese for ethical reasons. What they are willing to do is support stricter rules for agricultural producers and pay more for milk and cheese from farms that treat their animals well. The country is failing to provide those consumers with a reliable and navigable system. That’s a policy problem, and a solvable one.

At a minimum, the USDA should require third-party certification of animal-welfare and animal-raising claims, and apply strict regulations to certifiers: preventing conflicts of interest, requiring surprise inspections, and cracking down on rubber-stamping of industry norms. To meet American consumers’ more ambitious demands, Congress should create a farmed-animal welfare standard and an agency separate from the USDA to enforce it, akin to the Consumer Product Safety Commission.

Such changes would improve the welfare of billions of animals in our food system. Yet any changes would be too late for one. In the end, nobody stepped in to aid Cow 13039—not law enforcement, not the state veterinarians, not the auction employees. Alexandre Family Farm gave her vitamins and an eye patch, Nunes told me. They should have sold her sooner, she said. Cow 13039 was ailing. And ailing cows are not worth much.

2) I suspect that there’s long been a relatively-silent majority of university faculty who hate mandatory diversity statements, but figured best to keep one’s head down and not be labeled “racist.”  Good to see that this is changing:

In what’s likely to be a watershed moment, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has ended the use of diversity statements for faculty hiring, making it the first elite private university to backtrack on the practice that has been roundly criticised as a political litmus test…

MIT embraced the diversity statement trend. In late 2023, the university’s Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering sought an assistant professor “in fields from fundamental nuclear science to practical applications of nuclear technology in energy, security and quantum engineering”. Applicants were required to submit “a statement regarding their views on diversity, inclusion, and belonging, including past and current contributions as well as their vision and plans for the future in these areas”.

Such requirements have long been controversial, and the basic argument against them is simple: “diversity, equity, and inclusion” has come to connote a set of controversial views about identity, power, and oppression. Universities which require scholars to “demonstrate” their “commitment” to DEI can easily invite ideological screening, as well as potentially unlawful viewpoint discrimination. Many groups thus oppose the diversity statements on the grounds of academic freedom and free expression.

At MIT, these arguments seemed to have won the day. In a statement provided to me via email, president Kornbluth notes: “We can build an inclusive environment in many ways, but compelled statements impinge on freedom of expression, and they don’t work.”

This is momentous. The pushback against diversity statements has succeeded almost exclusively at public universities in red states, encouraged or enacted by lawmakers. Conservative states such as FloridaTexas, and Utah have passed laws banning diversity statements at state universities. Some appointed state university leaders, such as the University of North Carolina Board of Governors, have also barred the practice.

The decision at MIT is different — reform from within, prompted by a university president alongside deans and provosts, at a private institution.

It’s very possible that more private universities, and state universities in blue states, will eventually follow MIT’s lead for one basic reason: a significant number of faculty from across the political spectrum simply cannot stand mandatory DEI statements. Last month, Harvard Law School’s Randall Kennedy — a self-described “scholar on the Left committed to struggles for social justice” — described the general sentiment: “It would be hard to overstate the degree to which many academics at Harvard and beyond feel intense and growing resentment against the DEI enterprise because of features that are perhaps most evident in the demand for DEI statements.”

3) I’ve never used MTurk as I prefer the simplicity of other low-cost survey providers like Lucid.  But, I imagine my data is not necessarily a lot better than what MTurk is getting and the latest evidence on that is not great: “Extraverted introverts, cautious risk-takers, and selfless narcissists: A demonstration of why you can’t trust data collected on MTurk”

Over the last several years, a number of studies have used advanced statistical and methodological techniques to demonstrate that there is an issue with the quality of data on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk (MTurk). The current preregistered study aims to provide an accessible demonstration of this issue using a face-valid indicator of data quality: Do items that assess clearly contradictory content show positive correlations on the platform? We administered 27 semantic antonyms—pairs of items that assess incompatible beliefs or behaviours (e.g., “I am an extrovert” and “I am an introvert”)—to a sample of MTurk participants (N = 400). Over 96% of the semantic antonyms were positively correlated in the sample. For example, “I talk a lot” was positively correlated with “I rarely talk”; “I am narcissistic” was positively correlated with “I am a selfless person”; and “I like order” was positively correlated with “I crave chaos.” Moreover, 67% of the correlations remained positive even after we excluded nearly half of the sample for failing common attention check measures. These findings provide clear evidence that data collected on MTurk cannot be trusted, at least without a considerable amount of screening.

4) Love this from Drum, “Stop telling everyone life is horrible”

Just stop it. Joe Biden ended the Afghanistan war and cut American drone strikes nearly to zero. The US is not currently fighting any major wars and in 2022, for the first time in decades, reported no civilian deaths due to US combat.

Health insurance coverage has steadily increased among the young for the past decade:

And infrastructure is not “crumbling” by any stretch of rhetoric. Even the always dour American Society of Civil Engineers says as much: its most recent report gives US infrastructure its highest grade in more than a quarter of a century.¹ Spending on infrastructure has increased by a quarter since 2000:

There is a relentless drumbeat of claims on both sides of the aisle that America is falling apart at the seams and _________ has it worse than ever in living memory. But it’s just not true. Wages are high for every demographic group you can name; life satisfaction is steady; unemployment is low; drug abuse overall is down; our educational system is good; poverty is declining; we have more entrepreneurs than any country in the world by a wide margin; democracy is alive and well; our economy is the envy of the world; social welfare spending is generous; and a future of driverless cars, artificial intelligence, medical revolutions, and abundant energy is practically on our doorsteps. Even our demographic problems are about the least bad of any advanced economy—thanks, in part, to our supposed problem of too much illegal immigration.

Everyone has personal problems. Every country has national problems. The fact that we have problems is completely normal. But honestly, our problems right now are about as mild as they’ve been in our entire history.

5) This is so dumb and so anti-free market.  A perfect example of Republican being pro (entrenched) business rather than pro-market, “‘We Will Save Our Beef’: Florida Bans Lab-Grown Meat
Other states have also considered restrictions, citing concerns about farmers’ livelihoods and food safety, though the product isn’t expected to be widely available for years.”

Actually it’s even worse than that– just complete culture war BS

Florida has banned making and selling meat that is grown in a laboratory, a move several other states have considered amid worries about consumer safety and concerns that the technique could hurt the beef and poultry industries.

A number of start-up companies are developing technologies to grow beef, chicken and fish by using cells taken from animals without harming or slaughtering them. The process is expensive and the widespread availability of so-called lab-grown meat is years away. Beef and poultry associations, as well as some conservatives, have opposed the industry, calling it anti-farmer.

In a news release announcing that he had signed the ban, Gov. Ron DeSantis said his administration was committed to investing in local farmers and ranchers. “We will save our beef,” he said.

He also cast the ban as pushback against “global elites” who have a “plan to force the world to eat meat grown in a petri dish or bugs to achieve their authoritarian goals.” The news release linked to a 2021 article on the World Economic Forum website discussing global food shortages and lamenting that insects are often overlooked as a source of protein.

Also, I don’t like the opening citing “safety ” when those are almost certainly bad faith arguments, rather than legitimate concerns. In fact, nowhere else in the story are their any actual safety concerns cited.  Bad journalism. 

6) How the Libertarian Party went insane (and they have):

THE FIRST AND MOST OBVIOUS CHANGE that the new crew brought about concerned the party’s messaging. For many in the Mises Caucus, the question of whether the party’s Twitter account was sufficiently “owning the libs” was more important than workaday political-organizational concerns like ballot access or running candidates.

Shortly after their victory in Reno, the Mises Caucus removed a longstanding plank of the Libertarian party platform that had said, “We condemn bigotry as irrational and repugnant.” One has to wonder: What kinds of  would-be Libertarians were being held back from joining the party by those words—and, more importantly, why did the Mises Caucus want to court them?

The messaging got worse from there. Since the takeover, the official Libertarian party Twitter account has become a hotbed of conspiracy theories, inflammatory rhetoric, and scorn. State affiliates quickly followed in its wake, with the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire recently tweeting a revised version  of the “14 words,” a white-supremacist slogan.

The Mises Caucus faithful were thrilled by this change in the party’s public stance. Still, beyond this contingent, the party struggled to make inroads to new members.

Contra McArdle’s stated commitment to the broader liberty movement, the Mises Caucus has always been pugnacious toward its intramural competition. One of their prime longstanding targets is “regime libertarians,” shorthand for nonprofits like the Cato Institute and the Reason Foundation. Those organizations’ perceived compromise and lack of radicalism, as well as their willingness to accept imperfect and incremental improvements towards libertarian ends, meant they deserved scorn and sanction from the party.

For example, following the publication of a Cato Institute blog post praising the COVID-19 vaccines as a triumph of globalization and international cooperation, McArdle herself wrote that the Cato Institute “should be excommunicated from the liberty movement” and “has nothing to do with our political movement.” If one of the major, long-established national centers of libertarian thought and policy wasn’t aligned with the new Libertarian party, who is? (Besides, apparently, Donald Trump, who supervised the government-led effort to develop the vaccines in the first place.)…

ALL THIS THRASHING FOR RELEVANCE amid internal chaos helps to explain the Libertarian party’s embrace of bizarre strategies: Its leadership is desperate, out of ideas, and willing to try anything. That’s how the caucus of principle and radicalism has come to court the likes of cracked Democrat-turned-independent RFK Jr. and former Republican president Trump.

In this, the party’s current leadership shows that it is  willing to abandon libertarian principles built in the party’s platform—and to do so for the sake of visibility and influence. They’re not minor principles, either, but core principles, such as those expressed in the party’s positions on free trade and migration (“Economic freedom demands the unrestricted movement of human as well as financial capital across national borders”), industrial policy (“We oppose all forms of government subsidies and bailouts to business, labor, or any other special interest”), and justice (“We support the abolition of qualified immunity”). What would DJT or RFK Jr. have to say to a gathering of libertarians on those topics?

7) I quite liked this from Chait, “In Defense of Punching Left”

“Don’t punch left” is the core tenet of Solidarity, a new book by Astra Taylor and Leah Hunt-Hendrix. In a laudatory interview with the Washington Post, Hunt-Hendrix said the book was aimed not only at progressives in general but also specifically at liberals who criticize the left, naming me and newsletter author Matthew Yglesias as “falling into the right’s divide-and-conquer strategy.”

Solidarity provides the lengthiest and most serious case I’ve seen for why liberals should withhold criticism of the left. And since the basis of my refusal to take this advice is no longer self-evident to all my readers and colleagues, and appears increasingly deviant to some, their book provides a useful occasion for me to lay out my reasons why liberals should feel free to express criticisms of the left…

Since their goals are both to move the Democratic Party leftward and to hold together the progressive coalition, it follows that criticism from liberals poses a significant strategic threat. “Too often, liberals seek to legitimize their positions by punching left, distancing themselves from social movements to make themselves appear reasonable by comparison, which only strengthens the hands of conservatives and pulls the political center to the right,” they write, urging liberals to instead accept “the necessity of working in coalition with progressive social movements.”

Liberal criticism of the left corrodes solidarity among the oppressed, albeit in a weaker fashion than do conservative attacks. “If conservatives wield a scythe, demonizing different groups with sinister and destabilizing abandon,” they write at another point, “their liberal counterparts prefer to use garden shears, perpetually trimming solidarity back to manageable, and certainly not transformative, proportions.”

Notably, while they urge liberals not to criticize the left, they do not make any similar demand that leftists withhold criticism of liberalism. The requirements of factional quietude run one way. There’s a reason why the catchprase is “don’t punch left,” rather than “don’t punch anybody left of center.” Hunt-Hendrix’s radical activists frequently make scathing critiques of mainstream liberals and Democratic politicians, and she seems to have no intention of stopping pouring money into these efforts even as she implores her critics to stand down.

This reflects a common assumption among leftists, conservatives, and even many liberals that liberalism is simply a more pallid, fearful version of leftism. Left-wing critique makes liberals better, by this reasoning, because leftists are braver, more authentic and advanced in their thinking, than liberals. Their criticism drags us to where we must (and, in most cases, eventually will) go. Our criticism is divisive and reactionary…

I don’t want to bore you by attempting the umpteenth definition of liberalism, so I will lay out the distinction as briefly as possible. On economic questions, leftists have an overwhelming bias for state action over markets, while liberals are more selective. (As an example, in dealing with the problem of inflation, state-enacted price controls or restrictions on profiteering are a popular option on the left, while liberals prefer using interest rates and fiscal measures.) On politics, liberals take very seriously notions of individual rights and universally applicable principles, while leftists tend to criticize political liberalism as a recipe for maintaining inequalities of power between the privileged and the oppressed. The debate over speech norms within the left over the past decade has divided political liberals from our more radical critics.

On both economics and politics, the distinction between liberalism and leftism is a spectrum, wherein the differences tend to blend in around the margins without clear-cut borders between them.

One important distinction between the two tendencies is that liberals tend to understand policy as a search for truth and politics as a struggle to bring a majority around to their position, while leftists understand politics as a conflict to mobilize the political willpower to implement the objective interests of the oppressed. “Some see politics as a game of persuasion, not a power struggle,” Taylor and Hunt-Hendrix write critically. “This optimistic view ignores the fact that those with power and motivated by self-interest, including the vast majority of Republican Party operatives and their private sector allies, have little interest in dialogue, let alone compromise.”

8) What the heck, let’s just do two Chait’s in a row, “Why President Biden Is Correct to Denounce Campus Antisemitism The problem is not physical violence.”

The crisis, instead, is the intensification of a long-standing phenomenon. For many years, it has been common for deep criticism of Israel to be a litmus test for participation in left-wing activist spaces. Most American Jews are liberal, and most support Israel’s existence. This litmus test essentially forces many young Jewish people seeking to participate in progressive life to choose between their cultural heritage and full acceptance in a broader community.

The fact that anti-Zionist groups not only allow but encourage and celebrate membership of Jewish students is not a refutation of this problem. It is a description of the problem.

While students are often attracted to the anti-Israel groups out of admirable sympathy for the plight of Palestinians, the beliefs of the organizations behind the protests are murderous and horrifying. They support Hamas and the indiscriminate slaughter and rape of Jewish civilians.

As Jill Filipovic points out, the Columbia encampment’s list of mandatory principles one must align with to join includes support for the right to resist “by all available means.” The demands of the protest coalition at the University of Michigan, which has the support of 81 campus progressive groups, call for “power to our freedom fighters, glory to our martyrs. All eyes on Gaza, the Thawabit is our compass.” (Thawabit is a list of Palestinian political principles, including “the right to resistance in all forms.”)

Media accounts have often described these protests as antiwar, but this is flatly inaccurate. They support one party to the war and call for its victory. Likewise, news accounts have inaccurately depicted the protests as arising in response to Israel’s counterattack (i.e., the Washington Post: “Campus rallies and vigils for victims of the war in Gaza have disrupted colleges since October”). But the groups in fact mobilized in response to, and in support of, Hamas’s attack, and were preparing demonstrations to support what they anticipated would be a war to destroy Israel. (“This action of resistance shatters the illusion of Israel as an impenetrable, indestructible entity. The zionist entity is fragile, and Palestinian resistance is alive. The iOF are still in disarray and the resistance fighters are still launching new attacks into 48,” wrote Students for Justice in Palestine’s central organization in the plans for a “Day of Action” in the United States in the immediate wake of October 7.

These beliefs, which are spelled out clearly in the protesters’ foundational documents, have received astonishingly little attention. Their demands have attracted a bit more scrutiny, but much of that commentary has missed the real significance.

9) Thomas Friedman on the protests:

My problem is not that the protests in general are “antisemitic” — I would not use that word to describe them, and indeed, I am deeply uncomfortable as a Jew with how the charge of antisemitism is thrown about on the Israel-Palestine issue. My problem is that I am a hardheaded pragmatist who lived in Beirut and Jerusalem, cares about people on all sides and knows one thing above all from my decades in the region: The only just and workable solution to this issue is two nation-states for two indigenous people.

If you are for that, whatever your religion, nationality or politics, you’re part of the solution. If you are not for that, you’re part of the problem.

And from everything I have read and watched, too many of these protests have become part of the problem — for three key reasons…

First, they are virtually all about stopping Israel’s shameful behavior in killing so many Palestinian civilians in its pursuit of Hamas fighters, while giving a free pass to Hamas’s shameful breaking of the cease-fire that existed on Oct. 7. On that morning, Hamas launched an invasion in which it murdered Israeli parents in front of their children, children in front of their parents — documenting it on GoPro cameras — raped Israeli women and kidnapped or killed everyone they could get their hands on, from little kids to sick grandparents.

Again, you can be — and should be — appalled at Israel’s response: bombing everything in its path in Gaza so disproportionately that thousands of children have been killed, maimed and orphaned. But if you refuse to acknowledge what Hamas did to trigger this — not to justify what Israel has done, but to explain how the Jewish state could inflict so much suffering on Palestinian men, women and children in reverse — you’re just another partisan throwing another partisan log on the fire. By giving Hamas a pass, the protests have put the onus on Israel to such a degree that its very existence is a target for some students, while Hamas’s murderous behavior is passed off as a praiseworthy adventure in decolonization.

Second, when people chant slogans like “liberate Palestine” and “from the river to the sea,” they are essentially calling for the erasure of the state of Israel, not a two-state solution. They are arguing that the Jewish people have no right to self-determination or self-defense. I don’t believe that about Jews, and I don’t believe that about Palestinians. I believe in a two-state solution in which Israel, in return for security guarantees, withdraws from the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Arab areas of East Jerusalem, and a demilitarized Palestinian state that accepts the principle of two states for two people is established in those territories occupied in 1967…

My view: Hamas was ready to sacrifice thousands of Gazan civilians to win the support of the next global generation on TikTok. And it worked. But one reason it worked was a lack of critical thinking by too many in that generation — the result of a campus culture that has become way too much about what to think and not how to think.

I highly recommend a few different articles about how angry Gazans are at Hamas for starting this war without any goal in mind other than the fruitless task of trying to destroy Israel so Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, could get his personal revenge.

10) Krugman on the absurd anti plant-based meat culture posturing of RDS:

Sure enough, eating or claiming to eat lots of meat has become a badge of allegiance on the right, especially among the MAGA crowd. Donald Trump Jr. once tweeted, “I’m pretty sure I ate 4 pounds of red meat yesterday,” improbable for someone who isn’t a sumo wrestler.

But even if you’re someone who insists that “real” Americans eat lots of meat, why must the meat be supplied by killing animals if an alternative becomes available? Opponents of lab-grown meat like to talk about the industrial look of cultured meat production, but what do they imagine many modern meat processing facilities look like?

And then there are the conspiracy theories. It’s a fact that getting protein from beef involves a lot more greenhouse gas emissions than getting it from other sources. It’s also a fact that under President Biden, the United States has finally been taking serious action on climate change. But in the fever swamp of the right, which these days is a pretty sizable bloc of Republican commentators and politicians, opposition to Biden’s eminently reasonable climate policy has resulted in an assortment of wild claims, including one that Biden was going to put limits on Americans’ burger consumption.

And have you heard about how global elites are going to force us to start eating insects?

By the way, I’m not a vegetarian and have no intention of eating bugs. But I respect other people’s choices — which right-wing politicians increasingly don’t.

11) I love my VW Jetta and have driven small sedans forever.  I had no idea how endangered they were here in the US:

General Motors said on Wednesday that it would stop making the Chevrolet Malibu, the last affordable sedan in its U.S. model lineup and a venerable nameplate that was introduced in the 1960s when the company was a dominant force in the U.S. economy.

For years, American drivers have been gravitating toward sport utility vehicles and away from sedans, compacts and hatchbacks. G.M.’s two Detroit rivals, Stellantis and Ford Motor, have also largely wiped their slates clean of cars in the United States.

Foreign automakers such as Toyota, Honda and Hyundai still sell hundreds of thousands of sedans and compacts each year, but far fewer than in previous decades when the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord ranked among the most popular vehicles on American roads. Last month, Subaru, a Japanese automaker, said it would stop making its Legacy sedan next year…

Several years ago, Ford eliminated sedans from its lineup. The Mustang is the only car that Ford makes for the U.S. market. Stellantis, the owner of Chrysler, now focuses mainly on trucks, S.U.V.s and minivans, though the company has said it will start making an electric version of its Dodge Challenger muscle car in 2025.

12) But I like routine. “If You Want to Get Stronger, Routine Is the Enemy: To get the most out of your strength training, try progressive overload.”

“It doesn’t matter if you’re a 10-year-old on a soccer team, a 30-year-old interested in general fitness or a 70-year-old trying to reduce the risk of falling — some type of overload is needed,” Avery Faigenbaum, a professor of health and exercise science at the College of New Jersey, said.

Overload doesn’t mean you have to clean and jerk 200 pounds, however. It doesn’t even require lifting heavier weights. You can challenge your muscles by doing a more difficult movement — lunges instead of squats — or doing it faster.

13) Bad week for routine (okay, this is old, but a friend sent it to me this week), “Creating Exercise Habits Using Incentives: The Trade-off Between Flexibility and Routinization”

Habits involve regular, cue-triggered routines. In a field experiment, we tested whether incentivizing exercise routines—paying participants each time they visit the gym within a planned, daily two-hour window—leads to more persistent exercise than offering flexible incentives—paying participants each day they visit the gym, regardless of timing. Routine incentives generated fewer gym visits than flexible incentives, both during our intervention and after incentives were removed. Even among subgroups that were experimentally induced to exercise at similar rates during our intervention, recipients of routine incentives exhibited a larger decrease in exercise after the intervention than recipients of flexible incentives.

14) Excellent piece, “Bird flu keeps rewriting the textbooks. It’s why scientists are unsettled by the U.S. dairy cattle outbreak”

Most scientists that STAT has spoken to since the H5N1 outbreak in cattle in the United States was confirmed are unsettled by the notion that the virus is spreading in mammals with which humans have close contact. “That’s a different ball game altogether,” said Malik Peiris, chair of virology at the University of Hong Kong’s School of Public Health. “That hadn’t happened in Asia all this time.”

Nancy Cox, who for years headed the influenza division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said this particular lineage of H5N1, a descendent of a virus first spotted in a goose in China’s Guangdong province in 1996, is unlike any other family of flu viruses she recalls.

“It seems that these viruses must have some kind of ‘special sauce’ that has allowed them to find ways to persistently spread, evolve, and cause what appear to be increasingly serious problems in both wildlife and domesticated animals,” Cox, who is now retired, told STAT in an email. “There is an element of unexpected robustness and malleability that has surprised even seasoned influenza watchers.”

15) The type of excellent and fair-minded overview of a complex problem that is why I’m such a fan of Leonhardt, “The Debate Over Rafah”

In today’s newsletter, I’ll lay out the conflicting views of Biden and Netanyahu and summarize The Times’s latest coverage of the war.

To Netanyahu and his aides, the destruction of Hamas is a vital goal. Israel’s military has already made progress, having dismantled at least 18 of Hamas’s 24 battalions since the Oct. 7 attacks. But Hamas’s top leaders and thousands of fighters have survived, many evidently fleeing to tunnels under Rafah.

Allowing a cornered enemy to escape violates basic precepts of military strategy, Israeli officials believe. “Ending the war without clearing out Rafah is like sending a firefighter to extinguish 80 percent of the fire,” Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s war cabinet and Netanyahu’s chief political opponent, has told U.S. officials. The Wall Street Journal editorial board, which tends to support Netanyahu, has called Rafah “the crucial city for the terrorist group’s future.” …

To Biden — and many leaders of other countries — the destruction of Hamas is simply not a realistic goal. The group’s fighters are in deep, fortified tunnels that could take months if not years to eliminate, U.S. intelligence officials say. Even if Israel killed most remaining fighters, new ones would emerge.

Not only might the benefits of trying to wipe out Hamas be small, but the costs seem large, U.S. officials believe. The hostages Hamas still holds — who are likely being kept alongside the group’s leaders — could die. And the humanitarian toll in Rafah, where many Gazan refugees have fled, could be horrific. “Smashing into Rafah,” a Biden aide said yesterday, “will not get to that sustainable and enduring defeat of Hamas.”…

Ultimately, the debate may be less binary than it sometimes seems. There is a third option, and it’s one that the Biden administration seems to prefer, notes my colleague Julian Barnes, who covers intelligence.

In this scenario, Israel would agree to end major military operations — accepting a “sustained calm,” as negotiators call it — and release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. In exchange, Hamas would return all hostages, in phases.

Israel could then pursue a diplomatic deal with Saudi Arabia, in which an Arab coalition would run Gaza, sidelining Hamas. And Israel would retain the right to conduct targeted operations against top Hamas officials, like Yahya Sinwar. U.S. officials doubt the wisdom of a full-scale invasion, but not the strategic value of eliminating the Hamas leaders who planned Oct. 7.

Third option sounds great, if it’s actually possible.

16) I’m with the student on this one, “NC student was suspended after saying ‘illegal aliens’ need green cards. He’s suing.

A North Carolina family has filed a federal lawsuit against a school district that suspended their son for saying in class that “illegal aliens” need green cards.

Christian McGhee asked his English teacher at Central Davidson High School whether her reference to the word aliens referred to “space aliens, or illegal aliens who need green cards.”

Christian was suspended for three days in April, according to school records, for making a “racially motivated” and “racially insensitive” comment.

The family filed a federal lawsuit Tuesday in U.S. District Court accusing the Davidson County school system of violating their son’s rights to free speech, education and due process. The family wants monetary damages and for the suspension to be removed from school records.

“There is nothing inappropriate about saying aliens need green cards, and there certainly isn’t a case for racism due to the fact that alien is not a race,” Leah McGhee, Christian’s mother, said during public comments at this week’s Davidson County school board meeting.

17) This was great from Jeff Maurer, “You May Have to Wait Longer at Airports Because Jeff Merkley is Afraid of Robots and Can’t Read: He also has other reasons, but they’re not as good”

Congress is set to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration on Friday…now THAT’S a lede! Quite the sexy, clickbait-y first sentence, no? There so much to draw in the reader: Congress, the FAA, a pro-forma continuation of existing policies — that lede is sex on toast! And I’ve paired it with a thirst trap pic of Senator Jeff Merkley — this article is on a bullet train to Viral City!

But there’s a reason why we should care about this: A bipartisan group of senators led by Jeff Merkley is trying to use the reauthorization to force a change that could make us wait longer at airports. Their beef is with facial reauthorization, which the FAA wants to use to speed up check-in lines. If Merkley and his group succeed, airport lines that could move quickly will move slowly, and we’ll be less safe. Merkley has reasons for doing what he’s doing, but, unfortunately, they’re the worst reasons I’ve heard since I roasted Merkley for doing a different dumb thing a few months ago.

In 2019, the TSA started testing facial recognition technology at airports; today, about 301 US airports use facial recognition. Its most common use is during the part of Check-In Hell when you give your driver’s license and boarding pass to an understandably bored person, and that person pretends to match your ID to your face, though they clearly don’t give a fuck. At airports that have facial recognition, you can (but don’t have to) do things a different way: You can place your ID on an iPad, the TSA takes a photo (which is then deleted), and facial recognition matches your face to your ID (plus, if you have TSA pre-check, you don’t even need the ID). This process is faster: An airline official said it reduced the interaction from about 25 seconds to ten. By my math, that’s 15 seconds per person, which doesn’t sound like much, but adds up to 25 saved minutes in a line with 100 people. The TSA also says that the process is more accurate, because of course it is: Nothing could possibly be less accurate than our current system of having a bleary-eyed guy who just looked at a thousand faces try to discern if young, three-hairstyles-ago you is the same as old, tired, half-pulling-your-mask-down-because-fuck-this-let’s-get-a-move-on you.

So, this seems like faster, better way to do things. And the TSA would like to expand the technology to 430 airports. But Merkley wants to stop them because he saw some movies 20 years ago:…

I can’t believe that he started his speech by citing Gattaca and Minority Report. The connection to those movies is something Merkley is supposed to vociferously deny when the debate gets heated — someone like me will say “You just saw Minority Report and freaked out,” and Merkley is supposed to say “How dare you! My concerns are well-founded!” But he’s admitting that part of what’s going on here is that he saw a movie with a bunch of computers and robots in it and got scared. I guess if he saw Harry and the Hendersons, he’d be warning that deforestation is the slippery slope to having a sasquatch come live in your house.

18) I really enjoyed the new Anne Hathaway movie (on Prime), “The Idea of You.”  Apparently it’s based on a romance novel I’ll never be reading. Lots of changes were made and from what I can tell, they really worked. 

19) Noah Smith, “Biden is right that we need to raise taxes”

Why we need to raise taxes (and cut spending)

 

The U.S. government is running a big deficit:

This doesn’t look good. The pandemic is over, and the economy is doing great. According to the principles of standard Keynesian macroeconomic management, this should be the perfect time to get deficits under control. For one thing, inflation is still above target, and fiscal deficits may be contributing to inflation. Also, interest rates are fairly high, so borrowing right now increases interest costs by a lot. That’s a problem the U.S. hasn’t faced since the 1990s:

Perhaps the MMT people would advise us to just keep borrowing more and more to cover these interest costs, and then borrow even more to cover that interest, etc. That is a bad idea; eventually something in the economy will break. We’ll eventually get a default premium on government bonds, or hyperinflation, etc. In order to avoid the possibility of that, and to avoid having the rest of the budget crowded out by interest costs, the U.S. government will have to get deficit spending under control.

There are two ways we can get deficits under control: 1) cut government spending, and 2) raise taxes. That’s it — those are the only options. So which should we do in this case? Breaking down the deficit into taxes and spending (both as a percent of GDP, of course), we can see that spending is historically high right now, while taxes are historically low:

I drew the purple lines to mark where we are right now. As you can see, spending is higher than it’s been in recent history, except for during the Great Recession. And taxes are lower than they were under Reagan, Clinton, and (mostly) Bush. If we think that the 80s, 90s, and early 00s are a good guide to what our taxes and spending should be, it means we should cut spending and raise taxes right now.

Now you could make a libertarian argument that we should do deficit reduction entirely with spending cuts, because taxation is theft, because government spending is wasteful, and so on. And you could make a progressive argument that we should do deficit reduction entirely with tax increases, because reducing inequality is good, and because pretty much everything the government is spending money on now is good and important. I could argue with both of these cases, but I’m not going to, because A) a political compromise on deficit reduction will inevitably end up with some mixture of spending cuts and tax increases, B) this is what we did in the 90s and it worked, and C) this is what other countries do when they successfully reduce deficits.

So taxes should go up. And two of the best kinds of taxes we could raise right now are capital gains taxes and estate taxes.

Capital gains taxes, estate taxes, and accrual taxes

 

Biden’s plan has three ideas for tax hikes:

  1. Raise capital gains tax rates to the same rate as the tax rate on other kinds of income,

  2. Eliminate the “step-up basis” that allows people to dodge capital gains taxes if they inherit assets, and

  3. Create a 25% minimum income tax for the wealthy that includes unrealized capital gains as income.

Basically, I think the first two of these are good ideas, and the third should be dropped.

Do Democratic primary voters have a problem with white men?

So it would seem from this pretty cool new PS research.  It’s mostly focused on the growth of inexperienced candidates for Congress:

From the 1980s to the mid-2010s, nearly three-quarters of members newlyelected to the US House of Representatives had previous elected experience;however, only half of the freshmen elected from 2016 to 2020 held prioroffice. In this article, we investigate emergence- and success-driven expla-nations for the declining proportion of experienced officeholders enteringCongress. In our analyses, we find that the advantages traditionally affordedto experienced candidates are waning. First, we show that inexperienced candidates’ emergence patterns have changed; amateurs are increasingly apt to emerge in the same kinds of contests as their experienced counterparts. We then show that experienced candidates have lost their fundraising edgeand that—for certain kinds of candidates—the value of elected experience itself has declined. Lastly, we identify other candidate characteristics as strong predictors for success in modern elections. We demonstrate that these electorally advantageous identities overwhelmingly belong to candidates who lack elected experience.

There’s a nice section specifically on race and gender effects at the end:

The left panel of Figure 8 demonstrates that moving from a male to female identity increases a Democrat’s predicted probability of primary election victory by nearly 8%, holding all else constant. Moving from a white to non-white identity increases a Democrat’s predicted probability of primary election victory by 15%. Turning to the right panel of Figure 8, possessing a female identity decreases a Republican’s probability of primary election victory by about 7%. Republicans possessing a non-white identity were not any more likely to win an open-seat primary.

This actually comports quite well with what I’ve heard from many Democrats (of both genders) here in NC, expressing an inherent skepticism towards white male candidates.  Of course, it’s also pretty interesting to see Republican women paying a penalty.  

Of course, it’s worth mentioning that there are still plenty of very successful white male Democratic candidates, but this is a pretty interesting result.  

Tents are not free speech! (And that’s why protesters keep putting them up)

I am so tired of those on the left reacting so negatively to universities removing tent encampments as an awful violation of college students’ free speech.  A foundational principle of free speech policy is that government and organizations can make “time, place, and manner” restrictions that they apply neutrally, without regard of the content of speech.  A university cannot choose to run-off a pro-Palestinian protest but allow a pro-Israel protest.  They can’t say, “sorry, no protesting.  But, what they absolutely can do is say, “you cannot take over the main quad with tents.”  And, if you don’t take your tents down after repeated requests, the police remove will remove them.  And, this shouldn’t have to be said, if you resist the police actions, you will be arrested.  

The protests are all about media coverage. And, honestly, far too much about virtue signaling and trying to win more clout with fellow leftists than actually doing the hard work of winning over hearts and minds to the cause.  You know what doesn’t get a ton of media coverage?  A bunch of students standing in the quad, not harassing fellow students, not setting up tents, just genuinely peaceful protests.  And, I say, good for them! 

But, like I said, not a ton of media coverage.  So they intentionally set up tent encampments because they are against university policy to provoke a conflict.  And it works.  And they get media coverage.  And that’s, okay, but own it.  Admit that this is not free speech, but civil disobedience.  Admit that police actually have the right to come in and remove the tents and arrest people who don’t comply and that, of course, police should not use excessive force in so doing so.  Alas, all I seem to see is completely unfounded allegations of police acting as “fascists” and universities not respecting “free speech.”  But, this is not the case at all and it’s not hard. 

At UNC some faculty and graduate students are refusing to turn in grades for all their students (collective punishment, anyone) unless the administration grants amnesty to those arrested.  But they were not arrested for their speech!  They were arrested because they refused to follow a completely lawful order to clear a tent encampment and it was made very clear to them this would be the consequence.  As for those professors, a professor friend said to me, “part of me wants to see them do it and get fired. Is that wrong”?  No.  The idea of collectively punishing your students to make a point on your political views is just unconscionable as a professor.  

And, lastly, because we’re here.  I want to say that I think Israel has acted too harshly, too disproportionately, and shown far too little concern for Palestinian lives.  I completely get why so many students are out there protesting and convinced of the moral rightness of their cause.  I get that they want to end the violence.  But, alas, the leaders of these protests don’t want an end to violence.  Great Jill Filipovic piece on this in the Atlantic (gift link), “Say Plainly What the Protesters Want”

According to some news outlets, the protests are best characterized as “anti-war.” And that’s true insofar as the groups leading the protests do oppose Israel’s war in Gaza, and no doubt many of the demonstrators show up because they’ve watched horror after horror unfold, sympathize with a long-oppressed population that is now being killed by the thousands, and want to voice their desire for the violence to cease. But the protests—both on college campuses and those led by broader, noncampus groups—have articulated demands and ideologies. News outlets have a responsibility to report what those are, and are largely failing.

Many of the protest groups agree with that critique of the coverage. National Students for Justice in Palestine posted on Instagram, “Do not cover our protests if you will not cover what we are fighting for.” On-campus demands vary from college to college, but generally include that the university divest from companies doing business with Israel, cut ties with Israeli universities and academics, offer amnesty to all student and faculty protesters who have broken laws or campus rules, and implement total transparency for all university investments and holdings.

But those demands are not the sum total of the protest groups’ aims. Two of the student groups coordinating the encampments at Columbia, for example, published a guide answering the question “What principles must one align with in order to sign onto our coalition?” and clarifying “the cause we are fighting for.” The core principles include the Thawabit, originally published in 1977 and characterized as nonnegotiable Palestinian “red lines” (albeit ones from which many advocates for peace and statehood who actually live in Palestine have since deviated). Those include a right to Palestinian statehood, making Jerusalem the capital of Palestine, the right of return, and the right to resistance, even armed resistance, or “struggle by all available means.”

These groups have also routinely refused to condemn the Hamas attacks of October 7 that led to the Israeli incursion, even while they have found time to condemn far less egregious acts…

Similar ideologies and goals have taken center stage at off-campus protests as well, with banners pledging to secure Palestinian freedom by any means necessary and chants cheering on Hamas and rejecting a two-state solution in favor of the end of Israel (“We want all of ’48”). Protesters should be free to gather and make their demands, of course, but these particular demands are not, by any reasonable definition, “anti-war.” Protesters who endorse these ideas are against Israel’s war in Gaza, but do not seem to be opposed to bloodshed if it’s in the service of extinguishing the world’s only Jewish state.

Okay, that’s a lot I had to get off my chest about the protests.  Back to just re-tweeting other people’s takes for a while.

NC Republicans versus public education

Great stuff from Thomas Mills:

The Republican legislature has launched its spring offensive against public schools in North Carolina. Last week, the legislature expanded their voucher scheme, taking $500 million from public schools to subsidize wealthy families who send their children to private schools. They also made a frontal assault against teachers with a bill that would require them to post lesson plans online along with their names. These measures will deprive public school students of resources while demoralizing teachers.

Republicans have been dishonest about their plans for public education for years. Before they took power, they complained that Democrats’ warnings that the GOP would cut funding to public schools was little more than scare tactics. Once they took power, though, they took a hatchet to the education budget, leaving North Carolina with one of the lowest per pupil spending rates in the country. The state also has among the lowest teacher pay rates in the nation.

When Republicans first launched their voucher scheme, they insisted the program was designed to help poor students escape failing public schools. They vehemently denied that the vouchers would become tax cuts for millionaires, yet here we are. Republicans lifted the cap on Opportunity Scholarships, making the name a misnomer. Instead, they are tax cuts for rich people that are coming out of the education budget. They lied again about the purpose of the so-called scholarships.

Ever since they’ve taken power, Republicans have seen teachers as the enemy. In their telling of public education, teachers are devious, indoctrinating students in radical ideologies and turning them against the culture. They need heavy-handed regulation from their masters in the state legislature. The proposed bill is meant to either expose the radical agenda of teachers who want to turn society into a Marxist hellscape or prevent them from implementing their agenda in the first place. It’s a signal to parents that teachers are not to be trusted…

The 2024 legislative session marks the thirteenth year of the GOP offensive against public schools. They have demeaned the teaching profession and cut funding for schools while claiming that our schools are broken. They are now paying families to abandoned the public schools for private ones with no accountability.

If public schools are broken, then Republicans broke them. They’ve had thirteen years to fix the problems they claimed the schools had and their solution is to empty them of the most privileged students, leaving them for kids of underprivileged families. Republicans don’t believe that those who have benefited most from our society and government have any obligation to those who have been left behind. They are trying to turn public schools into second-rate institutions reserved for the poorest members of society by making teaching an unattractive proposition and encouraging privileged families to leave. It’s a radical notion.

Democrats need to launch a vigorous counter offensive. They need to regain the trust of parents by laying out an agenda that pushes back against the Radical Republicans and stands up for public schools. They need to educate the public about transferring tax dollars from public schools to wealthy families supporting private ones with no accountability. They need to let the public know that tax dollars are going to support religious institutions who are, in fact, indoctrinating children. The assault on our public schools cannot go unanswered.

About those crazy liberal young voters (or not)

We know all about how the youth are extremely liberal and driven primarily by issues of climate and Gaza… right?  Perhaps the ultimate case of twitter (and college protests) are not real life is the recent data showing this is decidedly not the case.  First, Yglesias, “Young voters care about the same stuff as everyone else: Inflation and health care, not climate and student loans”

The youngest cohort of Americans is less white, less religious, and better-educated than the national average, so naturally it’s more Democratic-leaning and less conservative than older cohorts.

But young people also pay less attention to politics, know less about politics, are less rooted in their communities, and are less likely to vote than older people. So across multiple cycles now, Democrats have understandably tried to “mobilize” young people — i.e., get them to actually vote. Younger Democratic Party primary voters (a group that is distinct from young people writ large) also famously did not love Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden in their respective primary campaigns, preferring the more left-wing Bernie Sanders. As a result, progressive advocacy groups often argue that the key to youth mobilization is adopting strident progressive stances on the groups’ issues.

Note, though, that this is largely a fallacy.

Here are two true propositions:

  1. Young people are less engaged than older people

  2. The young people who are engaged love Bernie Sanders

Logically, nothing about (1) and (2) implies that if more Democratic candidates were more like Bernie Sanders, more non-engaged young people would engage with politics.

In fact, the median young person self-identifies as moderate, just like the electorate as a whole. And at all ages, less-engaged people are less ideological and more moderate than consistent voters. Your socialist niece who posts obsessively about Genocide Joe is not representative of the typical member of her generation, who is on the bubble as to whether to vote for Joe Biden. You probably don’t hear a lot about the political opinions of politically disengaged young people because they are politically disengaged. Into the void step opportunists who try to convince Democrats that they have the key to the youth vote, even though on the most plausible measurements, the stuff that young people care about is very similar to the stuff that everyone else cares about.

In particular, the idea that there’s some magic trick to mobilize young people via progressive messages on climate change has basically no evidence behind it.

Young voters care about inflation and health care

Despite all my moaning and complaining, I am actually quite a bit more progressive than the average American, so I think it would be great to have a reasonably high carbon tax and split the revenue between a Child Tax Credit and deficit reduction. But as even the most strident climate change advocates in the world agree, a broad-based carbon tax is toxically unpopular. When gasoline prices spiked early in Joe Biden’s presidency, nobody stood and cheered and said “hooray, we are getting closer to our climate goals!”

And that’s the basic paradox of climate politics…

The Harvard Institute of Politics did a good polling exercise in their most recent youth poll where they gave respondents a bunch of pairwise comparisons — they asked them to consider two issues and pick which one is more important. Then they aggregated the winners of the head-to-head matchups to see which issues young voters care about most. Climate does not crack the top 10.

Note that two other issues that are frequently said to be politically important to young people — student loans and Israel — ranked even lower than climate change.

The top issue for young people is inflation. [emphases mine]

Inflation, of course, is a tough issue for Biden. So he is lucky that number two is health care, which remains the thing that I think Democrats should talk about more. Unfortunately for Democrats, abortion rights rank higher than climate, but still not that high.

I think this carries a few implications. The main one is that if you’re a Democrat and you need to address a persuadable group of young people, you should probably talk about the same stuff you’d talk about to any audience…

In terms of organizing and mobilizing work, I know that Israel critics like to say they are trying to help Biden by coercing him into shifting his position to one that’s more popular with the Democratic base. But look at these numbers — most people don’t care about this issue. When you stage protests and do other things to try to drive up its salience, you are driving up the salience of a Trump-friendly wedge issue and making it more likely that a candidate who is relentlessly hostile to Palestinian interests will win. If you can’t in good conscience actively work to help Biden get elected, that’s fair enough, but don’t be deluded about what’s happening here. Conversely, if we’d had University of Texas students getting arrested last week staging a pro choice protest at the Texas Capitol, that would have driven up the salience of an issue that is much better for Democrats. Organizing on abortion rights is very valuable precisely because this issue has a tendency to fall out of the headlines…

Note that one reason the student debt issue is not as high a priority for young voters as many Democrats seem to believe is that a majority of young people owe $0 in student debt.

And a recent piece in the NYT, “Gaza Isn’t Root of Biden’s Struggles With Young Voters, Polls Show: Young voters are far more likely than other Americans to support Palestinians. But few cite the conflict as a top source of discontent with the president.”

But these headlines are not reflective of young voters’ top concerns this election year, according to recent polls. Surveys taken in recent months show young voters are more likely to sympathize with Palestinians in the conflict, but few of them rank the Israel-Hamas war among their top issues in the 2024 election. Like other voters, young people often put economic concerns at the top of the list.

And while young voters are cooler to Mr. Biden than they were at the same point in 2020, there is little evidence that American support for the Israeli invasion of Gaza is a critical factor in their relative discontent…

The latest polling from the Pew Research Center finds 18-to-29-year olds three times more likely to sympathize with Palestinians in the conflict than those over 65, and twice as likely as adults as a whole.

“Not necessarily everyone is as fired up about it as we see from those out protesting,” said Laura Silver, the associate director of global research for Pew. “But 18-to-29-year-olds are far and away different from older Americans.”

Recent polls suggest these sympathies have yet to translate into prioritizing the war as a voting issue in 2024.

In the Harvard Institute of Politics’ Youth Poll conducted shortly before the past month’s wave of campus demonstrations and crackdowns, 18-to-29-year-old Americans overwhelmingly faulted Mr. Biden for his handling of the conflict in Gaza, with 76 percent disapproving and 18 percent approving. But only 2 percent of them rated it their top concern in the election, compared with 27 percent who said they were most concerned about economic issues.

In an Economist/YouGov poll taken more recently, in late April, 22 percent of voters aged 18 to 29 listed inflation as their most important issue. Two percent named foreign policy as their top concern. (The poll did not specifically ask about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.)

So, short version, as I saw someone put it on twitter yesterday, young people are basically normie liberals.  And there’s only so much Democrats can do on inflation, so just focus on health care and abortion, damnit (while continuing to make the case that the economy is actually really good, damnit).