More on nitrogen execution

I actually just shared Drum’s take in a quick hit, but I was unexpectedly interviewed on the topic by the local news yesterday. 

Steven Greene, who’s a political science professor at North Carolina State University, said as far as this is where the state stands when it comes to the death penalty.

“Republicans have full legislative control for years, and they’re able to override, override Roy Cooper’s vetoes. So if this was something that was a priority to the Republicans to make sure that we were executing more people, that they would be able to find a way to do this legislatively,” said Greene.

I had plenty to say off-air about my overall frustrations with the nature of the debate on this, summed up by the anti-death penalty source in the story:

Kenneth Smith was the first person to be executed by nitrogen gas in Alabama last week.

Kristin Collins is the Director of Public Information for the Center of Death Penalty Litigation. She describes Alabama’s decision as sickening.

“It couldn’t have made any clearer how cruel and inhumane and brutal the death penalty is than this whole spectacle we just saw in Alabama,” said Collins.

I don’t think we should be using the death penalty.  I think the evidence is overwhelming that juries are far too ready to put innocent people on death row and we should not be compounding these mistakes.  But I don’t think misrepresenting how “cruel” and “inhumane” various execution methods are is the right approach because it is fundamentally dishonest.  Alabama went with this method in the hopes that it would be as humane as possible; not to be brutal and barbaric.  Again, I’m opposed to the death penalty, but I’m honest about my reasons and I don’t like arguments about how horrible whatever the execution method is that are either bad faith or just motivated reasoning.  

And, no, of course we cannot know for sure the suffering of any particular method, but I’ve always found this information (from the NYTvery compelling:

Several years ago, Dr. Philip Nitschke, an Australian doctor and founder of Exit International, which advocates medically assisted suicide, developed a pod in which a patient could flip a switch and release the flow of nitrogen. He recently told The New York Times that he had witnessed about 50 deaths due to nitrogen hypoxia.

Meanwhile, everyday dozens of people overdose from opioids.  Many are also rescued from death by Narcan.  And you pretty much never hear about them suffering.  Why not just use fentanyl?  Apparently, the federal government (and some states) have thought about this.  And it’s not happening for all sorts of political reasons, but not because it doesn’t totally make sense as a painless way to kill someone.  

Meanwhile, the question for many pet owners (and I have been present for this multiple times), is why use what we do for our pets?  And, again, the federal government has had this very idea.  Drug companies don’t want to supply the pentobarbital and there’s always legal challenges, but, yeah, of course if it’s good enough for our pets it makes sense for humans.  

So, maybe I’m not really against the death penalty.  No, actually I am.  But, I just hate misrepresentations of the truth as a political strategy.  And, of course, there’s various drugs, etc., whereby we can create a relatively pain-free death.  And, so long as states insist on executing people, they should use these approaches.  I don’t think the way to stop the use of the death penalty is a never-ending treadmill of declaring that whatever execution method a state decides upon is actually inhumane. 

There’s all sorts of really good reasons the government should not be executing people and the fact that maybe there could be some problems with nitrogen or that fentanyl is associated with the illegal drug market should not be what’s stopping executions in states that have decided that’s the policy they want to implement. 

Bankers vs Biden

Loved this from Yglesias last week:

Two things happened last week that I don’t think are coincidental.

One is that the Biden administration announced new regulatory caps on “overdraft fees” charged by America’s banks. Banks obviously have to charge some kind of fee for this, but overdraft fees have become a major profit sector for a lot of banks, and that’s a pretty dysfunctional basis of competition…

The second thing that happened is that Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, went to Davos and explained that Trump was right about immigration and suggested that it’s a mistake for Joe Biden to use “MAGA” as a pejorative.

We got plenty of coverage from Davos about how CEOs like Trump now, though it was punctuated by Anthony Scaramucci, who actually worked for Trump, warning that this is short-sighted and Trump is a dangerous scumbag. But a lot of this coverage focused on Trump’s electoral prospects. Business class Republicans mostly wanted to see the party go in a different direction for 2024 — likely Ron DeSantis, though some also flirted with Tim Scott — but they’re now reconciled to riding with Trump, who they see as a non-optimal candidate, but a lock for the nomination and perfectly capable of beating Biden.

And beating Joe Biden really is the important part.

But if you think the reason Dimon wants to beat Biden is that he’s concerned about border security or Biden’s insensitivity to the MAGA faithful, then I’ve got some high-fee investment management services to sell you.

There was a lot of fear on the left, and hope in the c-suite, that when Trump realigned the GOP around a more downscale electorate, Democrats would respond by becoming more of a Macron-like pro-business party. But this didn’t really happen. Biden wants to make the Davos set pay higher taxes and he wants the banking industry to be more regulated from both a standpoint of safety and of consumer protection. He’s fostered tight labor markets that are narrowing inequality. And Dimon not only hates it, he hates it enough to avoid saying what he really thinks and instead strategically focus on politically constructive messages about immigration.

Because what Jamie Dimon really wants is the return of business friendly regulations that will make more money for him personally, for his shareholders, and for his friends…

You could imagine a world in which Dimon was more invested in expressive rather than instrumental politics and flew to Davos to say something like “I completely sympathize with the women who work for me who are fired-up about abortion rights, but Senate Republicans probably won’t nuke the filibuster in a way that lets them ban abortion nationally, whereas they absolutely will use the budget reconciliation process to lower my taxes, and that’s why I’m urging everyone in the rich business executive community to vote for Trump.”

But he doesn’t do that.

Instead, he frames his concerns in a way that generates articles based on the pretense that there is something surprising or interesting about rich business executives warming up to the idea of a Republican Party administration…

And I think it’s important for Biden to call that out and frame the stakes of the 2024 campaign as not just about “democracy” in an abstract procedural sense, but in a concrete sense. After all, what is the point of democracy?

The point is that the American people, together, can insist on policies that serve the interests of the many rather than the few. That we can drive down the cost of prescription drugs, even if pharmaceutical companies don’t like it. That we can have a consumer protection agency for financial products, even if banks would be more profitable without it. And that we can insist that the richest people in the country do their part to close the budget deficit and put the economy on trend for sustainable growth. Biden doesn’t need to embrace socialism or any new policies, but I do think he has to talk about his policies as being broadly beneficial while also inflicting costs on the richest few.

 

Why to be skeptical of public opinion polls, part 1000

The latest from Gallup is just a perfect example of why you should be highly skeptical of public opinion poll questions that go much beyond, “who would you vote for.”  Check out this chart:

Really, only 63% of Americans are willing to vote for somebody over 70?  Fair to say that won’t be remotely true come November.  I’m also confident that Biden will get more than 31% of the vote.  And, let’s be honest, sadly, even with a felony conviction Trump would surely get way more than 23%.  

Questions about “would you…?” under various hypothetical circumstances are so divorced from reality as to be close to useless.  

Democrats’ capitalism problem

My thirdborn just turned 18 and he is very excited to start investing in the stock market in his own accounts.  Being my son, he’s going to be going with a low-cost S&P 500 Index fund, but he’s been having a lot of fun looking up stocks and mutual funds, etc. I had not realized how much the stock market was up this year until he told me. I remarked that if Donald Trump were president, we would surely hear about the “amazing, absolutely tremendous” stock market every time he speaks.  But, for Biden, he can’t be seen as too much of a shill for the investor class.  But the economy is doing so damn well.  Democrats need to be talking about this all the time. 

Likewise, even if you are really concerned about climate change, the reality is that the world still overwhelmingly runs on fossil fuels.  And given that fact, it’s sure better that Americans’ fossil fuel is coming from domestic sources rather than overseas. But Biden can’t really brag about that either.  

I was thinking about all this, even before Noah Smith’s weekend post, which could not be more on-point:

I’ve been banging this drum a lot recently, but it still never ceases to amaze me how well the U.S. economy keeps doing. The post-pandemic inflation has now been completely conquered:

In particular, rent has now come down. A report by Realtor.com finds that median rents have fallen for 8 straight months now, caused in part by a boom in new apartment construction. (Yes, it turns out that YIMBYs are right and increasing supply makes housing more affordable.)

Meanwhile, despite interest rate hikes, real economic growth is powering forward in the U.S., coming in at 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023 (after an amazing 4.9% in the previous quarter). Labor productivity and real wages are up, and employment rates are still very high. Even Breitbart is trumpeting the good economic numbers.

And on top of that, the stock market is doing great. The S&P 500 is up 20% over the past year, and just hit a record high, at least in nominal terms.

The amazing thing is that this is all happening with interest rates at 5.5%! Since inflation is going down, and the labor market looks a little less tight than a year ago, the Fed is likely to cut rates this year. That will probably boost the economy, and the stock market, even more.

The U.S. economy hasn’t been this good since the 1990s. It’s really a Goldilocks situation; things pretty much never get better than this in a developed country. Of course, 2022 was a difficult year in many ways, so it’ll take some time for consumer sentiment to recover from that shock. But objectively, the U.S. is firing on all cylinders.

And on the energy front:

One other reason to expect good things for the U.S. economy is that energy supply has been increasing. Massive investment by U.S. shale oil producers has sent production soaring:

Pump, pump, pump pump it up! is what American oil producers have been saying for five years straight, since a prodigious increase in crude oil production in shale country helped make the US the largest crude pumper in the world

“US oil supply growth continues to defy expectations,” the International Energy Agency said in its latest Oil Market Report, released Thursday (Jan. 18). The US is producing more oil than any country in history, some 13 million barrels of it per day[.]

And here is a chart:

Source: EIA

Currently, all this U.S. oil drilling is keeping prices at moderate levels in the face of OPEC cuts. Eventually, OPEC — which has dwindled to less than half of global supply, even with the new “OPEC+” additions — will realize that all it’s doing with these production cuts is draining its own coffers. If OPEC gives in and starts pumping more, the world will experience an oil glut and the economy will get a shot in the arm.

Hilariously, some Republicans are trying to claim that the U.S. isn’t drilling for oil, or that Biden has damaged U.S. energy independence. This is a complete fantasy, and the people making this fantastical claim are rightfully getting hit with Community Notes correcting them. It’s boom times for U.S. oil.

Biden has also paused approvals for new liquefied natural gas export facilities. This will hurt producers a bit, since it shrinks their market. But it’ll also lower prices for U.S. utilities, because natural gas producers will only be able to sell domestically. That should boost the U.S. economy at the expense of Europe.

Now, a lot of people won’t like these moves. Drilling for more oil exacerbates climate change, while limiting LNG exports hurts some of our allies. But they will both probably reduce electricity costs and heating costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, thus reducing inflation even more.

And those who are mad about climate change can take some solace in the fact that the U.S. is also continuing to build solar power and battery storage at a very rapid rate, despite the hurdles created by NEPA, CEQA, and grid interconnection difficulties. Solar is proving especially important in Texas, where it helped the state weather a recent cold snap.

In other words, the U.S. is entering a new age of energy abundance. The Biden administration should probably trumpet that achievement more than it’s currently doing.

But you can be damn sure it would be a freakout on the climate left (not a fan), if Biden was actually touting these facts. 

Smith links to this Rampell column:

The best-kept secret in American politics today: Almost every kind of energy is booming.

Oil, natural gas, renewables — production of nearly every major source of energy has recently touched all-time highs. In fact, production of each has roughly doubled since 2000.

You’d think someone (President Biden, maybe? Oil-state Republicans?) would be shouting these milestones from the rooftops. But in an election year, this good economic news has become inconvenient for both political parties.

As inflation cools and consumer confidence rebounds, Republicans have pivoted to an old standby: Biden’s alleged war on energy, fossil fuels in particular. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) tweeted Monday that “Joe Biden has destroyed U.S. energy independence.” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and others have echoed the theme in making the case for the return of Donald Trump, who allegedly oversaw much heartier fossil-fuel production…
 
To put this in perspective, the United States is producing more oil than any other country in history

Industry groups don’t talk much about these numbers, perhaps because it’s helpful to maintain the narrative that oil and gas companies are over-regulated and under-subsidized.

Democrats don’t like talking about these things, either. After all, highlighting the rising production of fossil fuels under Biden’s tenure might anger the climate-minded left-wing base, which (understandably) wants to “keep it in the ground.”

 

But, anyway, big picture, things are doing great and Biden and Democrats need to talk about it.  And the climate left needs to realize that any progress is almost entirely dependent on having Democrats in office and that domestic energy production is very popular.  

Quick hits (part II)

1) Jeanne Suk Gersen is so good on issues of academic freedom:

Sometime in the twenty-tens, it became common for students to speak of feeling unsafe when they heard things that offended them. I’ve been a law professor at Harvard since 2006. The first piece I wrote for The New Yorker, in 2014, was about students’ suggestions (then shocking to me) that rape law should not be taught in the criminal-law course, because debates involving arguments for defendants, in addition to the prosecution, caused distress. At the very least, some students said, nobody should be asked in class to argue a side with which they disagree. Since then, students have asked me to excuse them from discussing or being examined on guns, gang violence, domestic violence, the death penalty, L.G.B.T.Q. issues, police brutality, kidnapping, suicide, and abortion. I have declined, because I believe the most important skill I teach is the ability to have rigorous exchanges on difficult topics, but professors across the country have agreed to similar requests.

Over the years, I learned that students had repeatedly attempted to file complaints about my classes, saying that my requiring students to articulate, or to hear classmates make, arguments they might abhor—for example, Justice Antonin Scalia saying there is no constitutional right to same-sex intimacy—was unacceptable. The administration at my law school would not allow such complaints to move forward to investigations because of its firm view that academic freedom protects reasonable pedagogical choices. But colleagues at other schools within Harvard and elsewhere feared that their administrators were using concepts of discrimination or harassment to cover classroom discussions that make someone uncomfortable. These colleagues become more and more unwilling to facilitate conversations on controversial topics, believing that university administrators might not distinguish between challenging discussions and discrimination or harassment. Even an investigation that ended with no finding of wrongdoing could eat up a year of one’s professional life and cost thousands of dollars in legal bills. (A spokesperson for Harvard University declined to comment for this story.)

The seeping of D.E.I. programs into many aspects of university life in the past decade would seem a ready-made explanation for how we got to such a point. Danielle Allen, a political philosopher and my Harvard colleague, co-chaired the university’s Presidential Task Force on Inclusion and Belonging, which produced a report, in 2018, that aimed to counter the idea that principles of D.E.I. and of academic freedom are in opposition, and put forward a vision in which both are “necessary to the pursuit of truth.” Like Allen, I consider the diversity of thought that derives from the inclusion of people of different experiences, backgrounds, and identities to be vital to an intellectual community and to democracy. But, as she observed last month in the Washington Post, “across the country, DEI bureaucracies have been responsible for numerous assaults on common sense.” Allen continued, “Somehow the racial reckoning of 2020 lost sight of that core goal of a culture of mutual respect with human dignity at the center. A shaming culture was embraced instead.”

Last year, students at Harvard’s public-health school discovered that Tyler VanderWeele, an epidemiology professor and a Catholic, had signed on to an amicus brief in the Supreme Court in 2015, arguing that the Constitution does not contain a federal right to same-sex marriage and that the issue should be decided by the states—a view similar to that of President Barack Obama until 2012. After some students called for VanderWeele’s firing or removal from teaching a required course, administrative leaders at the school e-mailed parts of the community explaining that it seeks “to nurture a culture of inclusion, equity, and belonging,” that everyone has a right to express their views, even though free expression “can cause deep hurt, undermine the culture of belonging, and make other members of the community feel less free and less safe.” In light of the harm and betrayal students reported because of VanderWeele’s views, the school hosted more than a dozen restorative “circle dialogue” sessions, “for people to process, share, and collectively move forward from the current place of pain.” (A spokesperson for the School of Public Health pointed out that students exercised free-speech rights when they demanded VanderWeele’s firing and said that the administration never considered disciplinary action against him.)

In 2021, Carole Hooven, a longtime Harvard lecturer on human evolutionary biology who wrote a well-reviewed book about testosterone, stated in a Fox News interview, “The facts are that there are in fact two sexes . . . male and female, and those sexes are designated by the kind of gametes we produce.” She added that “understanding the facts about biology doesn’t prevent us from treating people with respect,” and that we can “respect their gender identities and use their preferred pronouns.” The director of her department’s Diversity and Inclusion task force, a graduate student, denounced Hooven’s remarks, in a tweet, as “transphobic and harmful.” A cascade of shunning and condemnation ensued, including a petition, authored by graduate students, which implied that Hooven was a threat to student safety. Graduate students also refused to serve as teaching assistants for her previously popular course on hormones, making it difficult for her to keep teaching it. Hooven found it untenable to remain in her job, and she retired from the department.

Students across the political spectrum, but largely liberals, have told me that they felt it would be foolish to volunteer their opinions in class discussions, or even that they routinely lied about their views when asked. 

2) This Niki Haley story is crazy!

Back when Nikki Haley, the last woman standing in the race for the Republican nomination, began dating her now-husband, she took a look at him and asked him what his name was.

Puzzled, he told her it was Bill, which she already knew.

“You just don’t look like a Bill. What’s your whole name?” she replied, to which he answered, “William Michael.”

“From that point on, I started calling him Michael, and all my friends did the same,” she wrote in her 2012 memoir, “Can’t Is Not an Option.”

“Before we knew it, he was universally known as Michael,” she continued. “Everyone who knew him before I did knows him as Bill, and everyone who met him after I did knows him as Michael. He looks like a Michael.”

3) Somehow, I was three days ago years old when I learned about the Stanley tumbler craze.  Though I’ve long known that this obsession with hydration is way overblown.  NYT:

The closest thing the United States has to a water consumption recommendation comes from the National Academy of Medicine, which, in 2004, reported that healthy men usually stay adequately hydrated when they drink at least three liters (nearly 13 cups) of water per day, and that women are typically hydrated when they drink at least 2.2 liters (just over nine cups) per day, not including the water they consume via food.

But these guidelines should not be taken as gospel, experts said.

“Most people, even if they stay below that recommendation, will be just fine,” said Dr. Siddharth P. Shah, a nephrologist at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania who specializes in hydration and electrolyte balance.

4) Great piece from Brian Beutler, “The Material Stakes Of The GOP Assault On Democracy Become Obvious”

wrote recently about the center-right’s reconsolidation behind Donald Trump, and how revisionist praise from influential people like JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon could have a dangerous normalizing effect that cascades through the business community, into wealthy suburbs, where Trump has been an object of revulsion. 

This is a real thing that’s happening and (viewed in a vacuum at least) a cause for genuine concern. Absent the suburban realignment, Democrats would be toast. But it’s also an extra-tidy manifestation of the Big Picture democracy appeal.

I’d bet a large sum of money that Dimon knows Donald Trump tried to overturn the 2020 election. I’d bet almost as much that Dimon knows Trump has promised to establish a dictatorship on “day one”; that he has demanded immunity for any crimes he committed from 2017-2020, and any that he might commit from 2025 onward. 

And yet to hasten another round of tax cuts and reduced bank regulation, Dimon will tell the world he thinks Trump is a populist everyman who gets a bad rap. It’s hard to think of a cleaner distillation of the idea that Trump’s assault on democracy is about more than his personal thirst for power. It’s so people like Jamie Dimon can get richer at the expense of the people who will suffer next time unregulated financial capitalism wrecks the country. 

The submission of Trump’s intraparty skeptics reveals a similar cynicism, and a similar calculation: To them, democracy is more of a nuisance than it’s worth if it doesn’t yield right-wing outcomes.

It’s hard to say anything definitive about the moral values and ideological priorities of someone as cynical as Mitch McConnell. But as near as I can tell McConnell genuinely despises Trump. Not like how some Republicans will claim to know that Trump is a cretin in off-the-record conversations with reporters, but only to burnish their Beltway reputations. No, on top of the usual insults and the racist mockery of McConnell’s wife, Trump has tried to end McConnell’s career, and cost Republicans control of the Senate in sequential elections. After January 6, McConnell told Jonathan Martin, then of the New York Times, “I feel exhilarated by the fact that this fellow finally, totally discredited himself.” Oops.

McConnell also earnestly wants to fund Ukrainian resistance to the Russian invasion. I doubt McConnell has deep ideological views about border security or the ethnic composition of the United States, but I do think he was hoping he could wring unilateral immigration-policy concessions from Democrats, and that doing so would convince Republicans in the House to allow a vote on Ukraine aid. 

But now we see he’ll jettison all of that, including his dignity, at Donald Trump’s request. The two of them are of one mind that leaving problems in America to fester will help Trump get elected, which will facilitate more tax cuts and deregulation. “We don’t want to do anything to undermine [Trump],” he told Republicans this week.

Republicans like Dimon and McConnell have ultimately decided to join Trump’s slow-burn insurrection not because they worship Trump on a cult-like level, but because the world confronted them with a choice between things they care about and preserving a free society and they’ve decided to sacrifice the latter. It’s not quite the same coarse narcissism that animates Trump, who wants wealth and power for personal aggrandizement and to stay out of prison. They radicalized against democracy because they’re greedy for other things that they’ve reasoned won’t materialize through democratic processes. And in a way it’s worse. Trump is like a dog who will shit on your living room floor if you don’t give him a treat; Dimon and McConnell are like houseguests who will shit on your living-room floor if the toilets are occupied.

5) From 2019, but new to me, “Different languages, similar encoding efficiency: Comparable information rates across the human communicative niche”

Language is universal, but it has few indisputably universal characteristics, with cross-linguistic variation being the norm. For example, languages differ greatly in the number of syllables they allow, resulting in large variation in the Shannon information per syllable. Nevertheless, all natural languages allow their speakers to efficiently encode and transmit information. We show here, using quantitative methods on a large cross-linguistic corpus of 17 languages, that the coupling between language-level (information per syllable) and speaker-level (speech rate) properties results in languages encoding similar information rates (~39 bits/s) despite wide differences in each property individually: Languages are more similar in information rates than in Shannon information or speech rate. These findings highlight the intimate feedback loops between languages’ structural properties and their speakers’ neurocognition and biology under communicative pressures. Thus, language is the product of a multiscale communicative niche construction process at the intersection of biology, environment, and culture.

6) How can the barcode be on it’s way out?  Apparently, because it will be replaced by QR codes, which can contain way more information.  What’s wild, though, is to learn about the alternate proposals for bar codes:

The surprising history of the barcode

7) And from way back in the past, I was intrigued to learn that it’s possible for quarterbacks to throw too few interceptions.  It means you are playing too conservatively and leaving too many potential good outcomes on the table. 

8) “Obscene” is a little strong, but the main thrust of Brett Stephens argument here is not wrong:

In recent decades, as many as three million people perished in a famine in North Korea that was mainly government-induced. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians were gassed, bombed, starved or tortured to death by the Assad regime, and an estimated 14 million were forced to flee their homes. China has put more than a million Uyghurs through gulag-like re-education camps in a thinly veiled attempt to suppress and erase their religious and cultural identity.

But North Korea, Syria and China have never been charged with genocide at the International Court of Justice. Israel has. How curious. And how obscene.

It’s obscene because it politicizes our understanding of genocide, fatally eroding the moral power of the term. The war between Israel and Hamas is terrible — as is every war. But if this is genocide, what word do we have for the killing fields in Cambodia, Stalin’s Holodomor in Ukraine, the Holocaust itself?

Words that come to mean much more than originally intended eventually come to mean almost nothing at all — a victory for future génocidaires who’d like the world to think there’s no moral or legal difference between one kind of killing and another.

It’s obscene because it perverts the definition of genocide, which is precise: “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such.” Notice two key features of this definition: It speaks of acts whereas part of the genocide case against Israel involves the misinterpretation of quotes from Israeli officials who have vowed Hamas’s elimination, not the elimination of Palestinians. And it uses the term as such — meaning the acts are genocidal only if they are directed at Palestinians as Palestinians, not as members of Hamas or, heartbreakingly, as collateral deaths in attempts to destroy Hamas.

If Israel were trying to commit genocide, it wouldn’t be putting its soldiers at risk or allowing humanitarian relief to arrive from Egypt or withdrawing many of its forces from Gaza. It would simply be killing Palestinians everywhere, in vastly greater numbers, as Germans killed Jews or Hutus killed Tutsis.

9) Fascinating, “The Biggest Ape That Ever Lived Was Not Too Big to Fail: Fossil teeth reveal Gigantopithecus was doomed by a changing environment and an inflexible diet.”

Standing nearly as tall as a basketball hoop and weighing as much as a grizzly bear, Gigantopithecus blacki was the greatest ape to ever live. For more than a million years during the Pleistocene, Gigantopithecus roamed southern China. But by the time ancient humans reached the region, Gigantopithecus had vanished.

To determine why these prodigious primates died out, a team of scientists recently analyzed clues preserved in Gigantopithecus teeth and cave sediment. Their findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, reveal that these nearly 10-foot-tall apes were most likely doomed by their specialized diet and an inability to adapt to a changing environment.

Paleontologists first discovered Gigantopithecus in the mid-1930s in a Hong Kong apothecary where the ape’s unusually large molars were being hawked as “dragon teeth.” The animal was named to honor Davidson Black, the Canadian scientist who studied the early human ancestor known as Peking man. In the decades since, scientists have unearthed about 2,000 Gigantopithecus teeth and a handful of fossil jawbones from caves throughout southern China.

The dearth of fossilized bones makes reconstructing Gigantopithecus difficult; paleoartists depict the ancient ape as looking like an orangutan (its closest living relative) crossed with a silverback gorilla, but bigger. Nevertheless, the very great ape’s teeth, which are encased in a thick layer of enamel, preserve a wealth of clues to how these enigmatic primates lived and potentially why they died out…

Beginning around 600,000 years ago, the region’s climate began to change with the seasons as dense forests gave way to a patchwork of open forests and grasslands. That led to “dry periods when fruits were difficult to find,” Dr. Westaway said. As opposed to ancient orangutans, which adapted by eating a diverse diet of shoots, nuts, seeds and even insects, Gigantopithecus switched to less nutritious alternatives like bark and twigs. Their teeth from this period show signs of chronic stress.

As the environment became unfavorable, Gigantopithecus’s size began to work against it. Unlike spry orangutans, who could travel greater distances through the canopy and into open environments to forage, ground-bound Gigantopithecus were most likely restricted to shrinking patches of forest.

According to Sergio Almécija, a paleoanthropologist at the American Museum of Natural History who was not involved in the new research, the demise of Gigantopithecus reveals that even the largest animals are vulnerable to becoming too specialized.

“These apes became so specialized to living in a specific environment that once that environment changes, they’re gone,” he said.

10) Sadly, it only takes two books a year to be in the top half of all Americans for reading.  To be in the top 1%, it’s more like a book a week:

So what did Montgomery find? Of 1,500 Americans surveyed, a less-than-ideal 46 percent finished zero books last year and 5 percent read just one. So, if you read more than two books in 2023, congratulations! You’re in the top half of U.S. adults.

Reading five books put you in the top 33 percent, while reading 10 books put you in the top 21 percent. Those of us who read more than 50 books are the true one-percenters: people who read more books than 99 percent of their fellow Americans.

11) I think there’s so much reason for techno-optimism, “New battery material that uses less lithium found in AI-powered search”

Microsoft announced Tuesday that a team of scientists used artificial intelligence and high-performance computing to plow through 32.6 million possible battery materials ― many not found in nature ― in 80 hours, a task the team estimates previously would have taken 20 years. The results kick off an ambitious effort to create a new generation of batteries less dependent on toxic and environmentally damaging lithium.

The company shared some of the best candidates with the government’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Wash., which investigated the most promising ones and built a prototype battery using a brand-new material.

While the dime-size prototype is not yet ready for a prime-time role powering the watches and car keys of today, it functions using less lithium than commercially available options and has the ability to recharge power. Moreover, the feat demonstrates the potential of new technologies to revolutionize the underappreciated but fast-evolving fieldof materials science.

12) The answer to this is, no. “Are Right-Wingers More Prone to Believe Conspiracy Theories than Left-Wingers?” But, is it dam clear that right-wingers with conspiracy beliefs have way more influence within the Republican party than left-wingers with conspiracy beliefs do within the Democratic party?  Hell yes.

The authors find that conservatives and Republicans are more likely to believe conspiracy theories that fit their predispositions and biases. For example, they are far more likely than liberals and Democrats to believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump. But, by the same token, left-wingers are more likely to believe conspiracy theories that fit their biases, such as 9/11 “trutherism” (claims that George W. Bush knew about the 9/11 attacks in advance and deliberately allowed them to happen). The authors also find that “[t]here are also many conspiracy theories finding equal support among the left and right, including theories involving “chem-trails”, the moon landing, fluoridated water, Freemasons, lizard people, and television mind control, to name a few.” When a conspiracy theory doesn’t have a strong political valence, left and right are usually about equally prone to believe it.

13) As for any doubt as to the utter insanity of the Republican Party at the highest organizational levels, this is a depressing as hell must-listen from This American Life. 

14) I’m really looking forward to reading Brian Klaas’s new book.  This is a really good substack piece, “We are different from all other humans in history: Countless experiences that have become routine for us are unprecedented in the history of our species. Here’s why that matters.”

We, the modern humans who are alive today, are unique.

Modern humanity has produced astonishing shifts in historic blinks. Here, for example, is one of the most fascinating maps ever produced—known as an isochronic map—which shows how far from London a human being could plausibly travel in a given time period in 1914, just over a century ago.

The red shaded areas show a journey of five days or less; the pink five to ten days; the yellow ten to twenty days; the green thirty to forty days; all the way up to the darker teal shades which showcase the most remote regions—reachable only after a trek of at least forty days, nearly a month and a half.

Here’s an updated version of that map, from 2016, using data of travel time estimates from the website Rome2Rio. Suddenly, the range goes from days to hours, shades from zero to twelve hours (dark red) to the most isolated places on Earth in teal (more than 36 hours). The furthest reaches of inaccessible terrain on our planet are now far easier to reach from London than were most places in Western Europe a century ago.

It’s mind boggling.

This got me thinking: what else is unique about our crop of modern humans (the people alive today) that was literally impossible for every other fine specimen of Homo sapiens who came before us? And the answer, it turns out, is quite a lot.

15) I’ve seen Clear at airports for a while now, but, my most recent flight was the first time people who had paid for Clear were escorted to literally cut in front of me in my TSA pre-check line.  Paying to cut– so wrong!

Such distortions might be acceptable if CLEAR enhanced the efficiency or safety of airport security, but neither is the case. TSA Pre is a federal program that already capitalizes on the opportunity to identify frequent, low-risk flyers and offer them expedited security screening. Clear Secure offers no such advantages; customers must separately purchase TSA Pre if they want to keep wearing their loafers once they reach the scanner. CLEAR is simply a way to pay extra to jump the queue accessing a federally mandated process.

Now that Clear Secure is embedded within airports, the company has every reason to ensure that Congress and TSA let it keep profiting from airport line-cutting. And, like airports themselves, the company has little cause for concern if the security experience of non-CLEAR members grows more irritating.

Skewed incentives like these are predictable when a profit-seeking company acts as a gatekeeper for a public service. It couldn’t be clearer

16) I loved Happy Days when I was a kid.  And I loved this conversation with the stars looking back on it 50 years later. 

17) Yglesias, “Climate is the problem: Voters don’t care that much about the Democrats’ top priority”

Conversely, I think center-left intellectuals tend to downplay the potentially negative electoral impact of the increasing importance of climate change to the Democratic Party’s agenda precisely because it’s a cause that we genuinely care about.

If you read the New York Times regularly (which you should), I think you see clearly that the management, staff, and readership of the Times have significant concerns and internal disagreement about “wokeness,” left-wing campus politics, etc. all while maintaining a broad consensus that climate change is an extremely important problem.

This is a big deal electorally because the Democratic Party actually does act like a political party that believes climate change is an extremely important problem, elevating it to the top of the priority hierarchy for the Biden administration. So it’s completely reasonable for voters to base their voting behavior in part on whether they agree with Democrats’ climate-related policies. And it’s electorally damaging because, frankly, most voters don’t agree with the party’s assessment. They’re not climate denialists who think the problem is fake or that scientists are lying about it. But they just aren’t as interested in it as Joe Biden or the average New York Times reader. And unlike cancel culture, climate and energy policy does impact everyone’s daily life — including the lives of people who don’t pay that much attention to politics…

People care less about climate than they should

 

If you ask people whether they care about climate change, they generally say yes. If you’re a climate advocacy group that wants to make it look like people are deeply concerned about this, you can certainly hire pollsters who will craft questions that get you the answers that you’re after.

But if you probe public opinion even slightly, it’s clear that public support for climate action is a mile wide and an inch deep. For example, IPSOS found that just 25 percent of Americans said they’d be willing to pay higher taxes to address climate change. A 2019 Reuters poll asked specifically whether respondents would pay $100 to fight climate change and only a third said yes. Would you be willing to pay $10/month more in electricity bills to fight climate change? Most people say no.

Democrats are, I think, aware of these facts on some level.

They know not to propose a carbon tax or a gasoline tax increase as part of their climate agenda, even though these are good ideas on the merits. And in their messaging, they certainly never mention the idea of sacrifice or that it might be good for Americans to constrain their lifestyles or reduce their energy consumption.

But I think they still don’t take them seriously enough, because when people tell you they don’t want to pay $100 to fight climate change, you can’t just take that as a narrow point about the $100. It means that if you put together a huge climate-focused legislative package and make that the centerpiece of your agenda, your agenda would be centered around solving a problem that most people don’t think is very important. That’s just inherently a kind of danger zone. Not a unique danger zone, of course. Republicans think that cutting rich people’s taxes is very important and the American people — including lots of rank-and-file GOP voters — disagree. But the Republican Party as a whole seems to be aware that this is an embarrassing priority gap and tries really hard to conceal from the public how focused their party is on low taxes for the rich.

Contemporary Democrats, by contrast, tend to be loud and proud about their climate focus, which doesn’t make a lot of sense to me given what we know about the public’s indifference to this issue.

18) More techno-optimism, “A Key to Detecting Brain Disease Earlier Than Ever: Treatment of Parkinson’s, Huntington’s, ALS, and other brain diseases depends on reliable detection—especially in those who don’t even know they’re at risk. An innovative scratch-and-sniff test can help.”

Earlier this year, Parkinson’s disease (PD) research entered a new era when the Michael J. Fox Foundation announced a momentous scientific breakthrough—the discovery of a biomarker for PD. It meant that, for the first time ever, we can now pinpoint the earliest known signs of the disease in Parkinson’s patients.

This long-awaited new procedure is called the “alpha-synuclein seeding amplification assay” (SAA), and it’s capable of detecting the misfolded alpha-synuclein in spinal fluid—the wayward protein clearly linked to Parkinson’s. It separates, with a stunning 90 percent specificity, those who have evidence of PD pathology in their cells from those who do not. It does so even before the emergence of symptoms, much like the way high blood pressure or cholesterol levels are used to detect cardiovascular risk long before a heart attack lands someone in the ER.

It would be hard to overstate the implications of this development for people living with dysfunction in their alpha-synuclein. For one thing, we’ve never had a way to know who these people are—that is, until the moment of diagnosis, by which point ongoing damage to brain cells is already well underway. As for the diagnosis itself, which for most people comes as a bolt from the blue, it has always been frustratingly subjective and essentially based on a physician’s opinion following a brief once-over in the doctor’s office—not very useful for medical care provision, let alone biomedical drug development.

The new SAA test is already being integrated into drug trials as the first measure that can objectively identify people with the biology we’re targeting—offering drugmakers increased assurance that they are testing experimental treatments in the right populations. For biopharma firms weighing a decision to enter or stay in the high-risk neurological disease space, this changes the value proposition of investment on its face. In 2024, we will see a ramp-up of potential new drugs entering the pipeline and progressing along their path toward pharmacy shelves.

What’s just as remarkable is how the SAA breakthrough was arrived at. The search for the biomarker required finding and studying “needles in a haystack”: people without any traditional symptoms of PD and unwittingly living with increased risk for the disease. It was critical to figure out what biology set them apart from those who don’t get Parkinson’s. But how do you find someone who doesn’t know they’re being looked for?

As it turns out, your sense of smell is a surprisingly good predictor of brain disease. (We’re talking here not about the short-term smell loss associated with Covid-19, but significant and enduring smell loss that persists over years.) For a while now, researchers have known about the link between smell loss and neurodegeneration, especially in the presence of certain other risk factors, such as a diagnosis with REM behavior disorder (RBD), a sleep disorder. Research shows that half of those over age 60 are living with some degree of smell loss, yet the majority don’t realize it until they’re tested. If you couple this with the fact that all major brain diseases—Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, ALS, Huntington’s—are associated with some amount of smell loss, this is astounding.

The Michael J. Fox Foundation’s large-scale observational study of Parkinson’s set out to use poor smell as one of its criteria for finding and enrolling at-risk individuals. (We should note that, for this risk group, it’s still unclear if or when the disease may eventually show up.) The highly sophisticated screening device used? A humble scratch-and-sniff test, albeit the scientifically validated variety.

19) Ancient history:

Many researchers assume that until 10–12,000 years ago, humans lived in small, mobile, relatively egalitarian bands. This “nomadic-egalitarian model” suffuses the social sciences. It informs evolutionary explanations of behavior and our understanding of how contemporary societies differ from those of our evolutionary past. Here, we synthesize research challenging this model and articulate an alternative, the diverse histories model, to replace it. We review the limitations of using recent foragers as models of Late Pleistocene societies and the considerable social variation among foragers commonly considered small-scale, mobile, and egalitarian. We review ethnographic and archaeological findings covering 34 world regions showing that non-agricultural peoples often live in groups that are more sedentary, unequal, large, politically stratified, and capable of large-scale cooperation and resource management than is normally assumed. These characteristics are not restricted to extant Holocene hunter-gatherers but, as suggested by archaeological findings from 27 Middle Stone Age sites, likely characterized societies throughout the Late Pleistocene (until c. 130 ka), if not earlier. These findings have implications for how we understand human psychological adaptations and the broad trajectory of human history.

Quick hits (Part I)

1) Great interview on how elites perceive public opinion.  Claude’s takeaways…

Here are 8 key takeaways from the transcript:
  1. Political elites tend to overestimate how much the public agrees with their own policy opinions. This “false consensus effect” happens across parties and issues.
  2. Elites overestimate public support for policies they favor by about 12 percentage points, and underestimate support for policies they oppose by about 12 points.
  3. This misperception happens for media figures, lobbyists, bureaucrats, and state/local officials alike. It’s not driven by partisanship or trust in partisan information.
  4. Politicians overestimate the level of financial struggle their constituents face, especially Democrats overestimating problems for the poor.
  5. Correcting politicians’ misperceptions about economic problems does not change their policy opinions much. More experienced politicians were slightly more responsive.
  6. Politicians’ subjective perceptions of problems better predict their policy views than objective measures. But their perceptions aren’t too far off from reality.
  7. Media coverage and hearing from sympathetic constituents likely drive partisan differences in perceiving economic problems.
  8. Changing politicians’ views may require altering political incentives more than just informing them, since information alone does not shift opinions.

2) Fascinating, “How One Tiny Insect Upended an Ecosystem”

That animal is the big-headed ant. First described on the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius in the 18th century, the insects have since been ferried around the world by human ships, becoming infamous for infesting ceilings and excavating tile floors. In Kenya’s Laikipia County, where Kamaru and his colleagues have been gathering data, the ants establish supercolonies at the base of whistling-thorn acacias, then scamper up the trunks to prey on native acacia ants, slaughtering the adults and feasting on their larvae and eggs until the entire community is gone. This is where the domino effect of trouble starts.

The big-headed ants’ coup disrupts a tight symbiosis, in which the trees furnish the native ants with food and shelter in exchange for defense. “We call them bodyguards,” Jacob Goheen, Kamaru’s supervisor at the University of Wyoming, told me. The main threat the native ants waylay is elephants—which, given the chance, will so aggressively chow down on trees that they end up stripped bare, even toppled, struggling to resprout. But the mere presence of native acacia ants is usually enough to keep whistling thorns upright: When elephant trunks snake into the trees’ branches, the insects zoom straight in, nipping at the flesh of their nostrils until the herbivores flee.

Big-headed ants offer no such defense, and in regions where they’ve invaded, elephants do five to seven times more damage to whistling thorns than they’d otherwise manage, Kamaru’s team found. And because upwards of 70 percent of trees in this habitat are whistling thorns, their disappearance is enough to effectively convert the savanna into a nearly open grassland.

On those newly remodeled plains, skittish zebras may gain a good 50 feet of extra visibility as they scour the horizon for predators, Goheen told me, “enough to mean life versus death.” In regions where acacias and their native ants remain intact, the researchers found, lions have little issue cloaking themselves behind trees to stage an ambush. But in big-headed-ant country, where the skyline is threadbare and lions stick out, zebra survival rates have close to tripled. After chasing a few too many zebras that elude their claws, the big cats have started to seek their fortunes elsewhere.

3) I’m pretty sure I first learned about the idea of nitrogen hypoxia as a painless death from Drum.  I’m with his take here:

Alabama, having exhausted its other alternatives, executed Kenneth Eugene Smith tonight by fitting him with a mask and then pumping it full of nitrogen:

Witnesses saw Smith struggle as the gas began flowing into the mask that covered his entire face. He began writhing and thrashing for approximately two to four minutes, followed by around five minutes of heavy breathing.

This has prompted a lot of hand-wringing, but the convulsions are autonomic reactions. Smith was almost certainly unconscious when they happened.

The death penalty doesn’t happen to be big hot button of mine, but I understand the opposition and I’m certainly OK with ending it. Still, if it’s going to be done, I have a hard time understanding the endless controversies over the precise method it’s applied. Nitrogen is fine, and almost certainly painless. Ditto for helium, once a favored method of suicide. That’s because human choking reflexes don’t respond to what kind of gas you inhale, only to a buildup of carbon dioxide. Obviously you don’t get that when you breathe pure helium or nitrogen, so you barely even know anything is wrong. This is why accidental asphyxiation via nitrogen is fairly common.

Hanging is also painless. So is the guillotine. So is a firing squad if it’s not botched. By contrast, lethal injection is idiotically complicated and never should have been adopted.

Opposing the death penalty is fine. But trying to pretend that even a brief and theoretical moment of discomfort is the real problem? That makes no sense.

4) Florida has removed Sociology from its core curriculum at public universities for being overly ideological.  I know I’m not supposed to say this as a fellow social scientist, but, sociology is way too ideological.  WSJ column on the matter:

The American Sociological Association strongly objects. But as a sociology professor with extensive experience teaching general-education courses, I sympathize with the decision.

I have taught undergraduate sociology courses since 1996. Through the decades, I have watched my discipline morph from a scientific study of social reality into academic advocacy for left-wing causes. Dozens of my fellow sociologists have also observed the transformation, including Christian Smith of Notre Dame, whose book “The Sacred Project of American Sociology” (2014) provides a brutally honest account of our troubled discipline.

Mr. Smith is disappointed that undergraduate sociology textbooks, rather than disseminate scientific findings, “function as recruiting tools and re-socialization manuals” to turn students into radical activists. He is equally disappointed with the discipline’s failure to come clean about its obvious political commitments. Publicly, the American Sociological Association describes sociology as a “scientific study of social life” interested in the “causes and consequences of human behavior.” Internally, ASA embraces and promotes social-change activism.

Each year, the association’s president chooses a theme for its annual meeting. Next year’s theme is brazenly political: “Intersectional Solidarities: Building Communities of Hope, Justice, and Joy.” The ASA sums it up as follows: “The 2024 theme emphasizes sociology as a form of liberatory praxis: an effort to not only understand structural inequities, but to intervene in socio-political struggles.”

5) I had no luck when I repeated similar experiments myself.  You can re-program the guardrails pretty fast, “We Asked A.I. to Create the Joker. It Generated a Copyrighted Image.”

When Reid Southen, a movie concept artist based in Michigan, tried an A.I. image generator for the first time, he was intrigued by its power to transform simple text prompts into images.

But after he learned how A.I. systems were trained on other people’s artwork, his curiosity gave way to more unsettling thoughts: Were the tools exploiting artists and violating copyright in the process?

Inspired by tests he saw circulating online, he asked Midjourney, an A.I. image generator, to create an image of Joaquin Phoenix from “The Joker.” In seconds, the system made an image nearly identical to a frame from the 2019 film.

6) Meanwhile, I did worse than chance at this, “Test Yourself: Which Faces Were Made by A.I.?”

7) Bruni on Trump and NH:

As Trump performances go, it was an unremarkable one.

And yet so utterly revealing. So perfectly emblematic. CNN, which I happened to be watching, went live to Nashua and stayed with him for maybe 10 minutes, maybe less — the new fashion is to mete out attention to Trump modestly, carefully, lest he get too big a megaphone for his lies — and yet that abbreviated encounter provided ample information. I was struck by all that it communicated.

Such as the sycophancy surrounding Trump. Right behind him, visible over his shoulder, was Senator Tim Scott, a man who prides himself on his faith and decency, a former rival of Trump’s for the Republican nomination, now another toady in Trump’s service, surely angling to be his running mate, already on board as a campaign-trail surrogate. Scott was smiling broadly. It was as sad an expression as I’ve ever seen. Maybe sacrificing scruples on the altar of ambition is more joyful than I ever imagined. Maybe Stockholm syndrome takes effect more quickly and fully than I ever realized.

Or maybe Scott was intent on being as sunny a sidekick to Trump as Vivek Ramaswamy, who jittered into the frame to take a turn at the microphone and declare his devotion. Trump is an inconstant ally, but no matter: He’s rewarded with a retinue of fawners and flatterers. It’s a parable of conquest. It’s also morally pathetic.

During Trump’s own time at the microphone, he called Nikki Haley an “impostor” because she spoke on Tuesday night as if she’d had a good showing when, actually, she’d been vanquished. Gee, of whom does that remind me? Maybe Trump circa November 2020 to January 2021? Maybe Trump to this day?

Trump accused the governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, who’d endorsed Haley, of being on uppers. He claimed that President Biden “can’t put two sentences together.”

Just a minute before, he put together these two sentences: “I don’t get too angry. I get even.” The first of those is laughably false. The second distills the gleeful and gloating ugliness of his brand and of his movement.

Trump also said that Haley, contrary to her claims, doesn’t beat Biden in polls that pit her against him. Untrue. He said that he had a flawless track record in New Hampshire from 2016 to the present. “We win the primary,” he boasted. “We win the generals.” He must have meant the general elections, and that’s dead wrong. Hillary Clinton very narrowly beat Trump in New Hampshire in 2016. Biden beat him there in 2020 by more than seven percentage points.

Fantasy in place of reality. Insults in lieu of inspiration. A clutch of sellouts jockeying for his favor and fluffing his ego. It was all there because that’s all there is. I watched Trump only briefly and saw the highlights of his political odyssey to this point and the whole of the campaign ahead. It’s a scary vision. Welcome to 2024.

8) On co-regulation and parenting.  Mostly I loved this because it extensively references one of my favorite movies ever:

On a recent evening, my children and I were watching “The Iron Giant,” the animated cult classic about a robot from outer space who, in 1957, crash-lands in the woods outside a small town in Maine, befriends a young boy, and wages battle against both a murderously stupid G-man and his own robo-programming as a sentient weapon of war. The boy, named Hogarth, and his mother, Annie, get by on her income as a diner waitress, and, late one night, she comes home from a draining double shift to find her son missing. Frantic with worry, Annie drives around until she locates Hogarth at the edge of the woods—on his own and perfectly fine—where he manically chatters at her about the big metal alien he claims to have spotted nearby. “Stop it!” Annie finally snaps. Then she catches herself and, with effort, takes on a low, steadier voice. She inhales and exhales, puffing her lips. “I’m not in the mood,” she says. Silently, they walk to the car.

For the contemporary parent beholding this magnificent fusion of Ted Hughes, Brad Bird, and Vin Diesel, there is an obvious and pressing question: Is Hogarth’s mom co-regulating? Co-regulation, a concept that has lately saturated the world of momfluencing, refers to a caregiver controlling her own emotional response when a child is agitated, and thus modelling the warm-yet-cool composure she hopes the child will eventually acquire himself. In the scene from “The Iron Giant,” Annie is exhausted by work and adrenalized by legitimate panic, but “Stop it!” is not Grade-A parenting, and she knows it. She attempts to repair the moment by stepping outside herself to observe and correct her tone. She engages her parasympathetic nervous system with a quick breathing exercise. Even “I’m not in the mood,” while suboptimal, is getting somewhere—Annie is communicating to her son that she’s dysregulated, and trying her best not to blame this on his alarming behavior. Going by the online #coregulation discourse, the ideal, Dr. Becky-worthy script would be something like “Wow, Hogarth, to be honest, I’m feeling a little overwhelmed by everything that’s happened tonight. Let’s get home and, when we’ve both calmed down, we can talk about the big metal alien.”

According to today’s most prominent parenting gurus, maintaining an infectious state of calm is not only one of the utmost objectives when raising a child but perhaps the single goal from which all other family aspirations can flow. 

9) This is cool, “How COVID-19 Vaccines and Infections Are Tweaking Our Immunity

Your immune system may be getting smarter every time you encounter COVID-19, a new study suggests. After getting vaccinated and infected, the immune system generates broader defenses against the virus, including against new variants.

In a paper published Jan. 19 in Science Immunology, researchers in South Korea compared immune cells in the lab from people with a variety of vaccine and infection histories throughout the different Omicron waves, which began in late 2021 with BA.1. People who had been vaccinated with the original Pfizer-BioNTech series and then got infected with any Omicron variant showed good levels of memory immune cells—called T cells—that defended not only against the variants causing the infection, but also related ones in the Omicron family that came later. For example, people who were vaccinated with three doses of the original COVID-19 shot and then got infected with the BA.2 variant generated T cells that could target not just BA.2 but also BA.4/5 and XBB viruses, which didn’t emerge until later.

“This is evidence of cross adaptation between the virus and human beings overall,” says Dr. Eui-Cheol Shin, professor at the Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology and senior author of the paper. “It also means we are on the way to an endemic era for COVID-19.”

Shin and his team found that the T cells—which are more durable than antibodies and are designed to retain memory of the viruses they encounter—generated against Omicron variants recognized the parts of the virus that remained conserved, as opposed to portions that had changed among the different variants. This, in part, helps people to not get as sick from reinfections.

10) I suspect most adult men will react very differently to this story than adult women.

An Arkansas teacher once surprised on national TV by adoring students has pleaded guilty to having sex with a high school boy up to 30 times.

Married mom Heather Hare, 33, first made headlines in 2020 when she was surprised on ”Good Morning America” by students bidding her goodbye as her home economics class was discontinued for distance learning during the pandemic.

She now potentially faces life behind bars after pleading guilty Monday to transporting a minor across state lines for unlawful sexual activity, prosecutors said.

The once-beloved teacher was arrested last April when a 17-year-old student came forward to report her repeated abuse, the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette also reported.

The boy — identified only as “J.R.” — told police that he met Hare on the first day of his senior year at Bryant High School in the fall of 2021, Assistant US Attorney John Ray White told the court hearing.

“Hare began one-on-one counseling sessions with the minor victim, eventually giving him her personal phone number and primarily communicating with him through Instagram and Snapchat,” the prosecutor’s office said.

“At one point, Ms. Hare told J.R. that she had a dream of them having sex,” White said.

“The minor victim and Hare had sex approximately 20 to 30 times throughout the 2021-2022 school term, including multiple times at her Conway residence, in her vehicle, and in her classroom and parking lots at Bryant High School.”

11) I thought Barbie was an excellent movie– especially the screenplay.  But, all the stuff about the award “snubs” was off-base.  Drum:

Barbie got nominated for Best Picture but Greta Gerwig was snubbed in the Best Director category. Snubbed! It’s an outrage!

Oh, calm down. This whole “snubbed” meme has always been idiotic, and it’s maybe even more idiotic this year than before. Greta Gerwig likely missed out for a couple of banal reasons:

  • There are ten Best Picture nominees and only five Best Director nominees. Five good directors are always going to get left out.
  • Barbie was a traditional summer tentpole movie, a semi-cartoon crowd pleaser. For better or worse, those kinds of movies have never been Oscar bait. The Academy likes to think of itself as more serious.

This is probably all that’s going on. Though I admit I think it’s odd that Ryan Gosling got a Best Actor nod for what I thought was an OK but not outstanding performance as Ken.

12) Got some more screen time than usual in my latest TV interview.

13) I was recently interviewed about Voter ID.  I don’t love these laws, but it is so far from a new Jim Crow.  The latest PS research:

In the first two decades of the twenty-first century, many American state governments implemented voter identification (ID) laws for elections held in their states. These laws, which commonly mandate photo ID and/or require significant effort by voters lacking ID, sparked an ongoing national debate over the tension between election security and access in a democratic society. The laws’ proponents—primarily politicians in the Republican Party—claim that they prevent voter fraud, while Democratic opponents denounce the disproportionate burden they place on historically disadvantaged groups such as the poor and people of color. While these positions may reflect sincerely held beliefs, they also align with the political parties’ rational electoral strategies because the groups most likely to be disenfranchised by the laws tend to support Democratic candidates. Are these partisan views on the impact of voter ID correct? Existing research focuses on how voter ID laws affect voter turnout and fraud. But the extent to which they produce observable electoral benefits for Republican candidates and/or penalize Democrats remains an open question. We examine how voter ID impacts the parties’ electoral fortunes in races at the state level (state legislatures and governorships) and federal level (United States Congress and president) during 2003 to 2020. Our results suggest negligible average effects but with some heterogeneity over time. The first laws implemented produced a Democratic advantage, which weakened to near zero after 2012. We conclude that voter ID requirements motivate and mobilize supporters of both parties, ultimately mitigating their anticipated effects on election results.

14) A rare miss from the Atlantic, “Gummy Vitamins Are Just Candy.”  The article pretty much totally ignores that this candy is… full of vitamins!

15) A lot of people pointing out this Politico article as summing up the insanity of Trump voters in a single person.  Kind of. “‘Our System Needs to Be Broken, and He Is the Man to Do It’”

16) Michael A. Cohen on DeSantis:

But ultimately, there’s a more straightforward reason why DeSantis fared so poorly in his bid for the White House … and again, I turn to what I wrote in the Summer of 2022.

Whatever one might think of DeSantis’s recent political rise, the 2024 Republican nomination is likely Donald Trump’s to lose. He is still the frontrunner in national polls of Republican voters (in head-to-head polls against DeSantis, Trump is regularly ahead by 30 points). And it’s not the Florida governor to whom Republicans across the country are prostrating themselves — it’s Trump.

This is the bottom line — the GOP is Trump’s party, and DeSantis never really had a chance.

Some commentators have pointed out that Trump’s poll numbers, vis-a-vis DeSantis, began to improve in March after his first indictment in New York City — and this was the decisive moment when the tide turned against DeSantis. But I don’t buy that argument. The tide was always going to turn against DeSantis because Trump is simply more popular among rank-and-file Republican voters. You can see this in how DeSantis ran — bear-hugging Trump and refusing to attack his key rival until the end of the campaign. Even on Ukraine military funding, he went pro-Putin, refusing to put any distance between himself and the former president. He offered GOP voters a choice: Trump or a Trump-like figure, who supposedly was more electable. No one should be surprised that when faced with those options, Republicans picked the real thing rather than a pale imitation.

If you’re going to run against a candidate who is, by and large, an incumbent, you need to create a contrast and a compelling argument as to why you’d be a better Republican nominee. DeSantis never did that. But ultimately, it’s hard to say it would have mattered. The GOP is the party of Trump, and DeSantis, like every Republican who has challenged him, was destined to fail.

17) I’m a big believer in reading the strongest challenges I can to my views.  And David French is as good faith a conservative as you can get.  But I found his arguments in favor of overturning Chevron deference utterly uncompelling. 

18) My family lore has always been that some difficult Ukrainian Jewish name was changed to “Greene” at Ellis Island in the late 19th century.  Alex Tabarrok says, no, this is actually a myth.  All his commenters say, no, really, this is what happened to my family. 

19) Chait on Democrats’ problem with the left:

The political left is the most obvious place where support for the anti-Trump coalition has evaporated. Leftists constitute a tiny portion of the electorate, but since they are disproportionately represented in both traditional and social media, this outsize voice serves as a force multiplier in public opinion.

One long-standing aspect of progressive thinking is a tendency to emphasize the negative. The left has a radical critique of American society and its economy and believes that emphasizing progress undercuts the urgency of necessary change. This tendency means progressive rhetoric works in tandem with the Democratic Party’s messaging when Democrats are in opposition — both progressives and Democrats alike are emphasizing how terrible everything is — but is very much in tension when Democrats hold power. (The dynamic works very differently in conservative media, which flips from doomsaying as the opposition to cheerleading when Republicans control government.)

The left likely has an especially important influence on the views of younger voters, who rely more heavily on social media than on traditional mainstream news. A Times survey found TikTok users, regardless of age, were especially scathing of Biden’s support for Israel during its invasion of Gaza. Worse, it found that younger voters may even prefer Trump over Biden because of the issue: “The young Biden ’20 voters with anti-Israel views are the likeliest to report switching to Mr. Trump.” The Times has also speculated that young voters are convinced Biden’s economy is a wasteland of despair, despite feeling satisfied about their personal economic prospects, in part because of the doomer and “vibecession” memes they absorb from Instagram and TikTok.

Progressive despondency is not totally constant. It becomes more pronounced when leftists find themselves ideologically alienated from the Democratic Party. When Biden won the nomination in the spring of 2020, he faced a white-hot backlash from enraged and shocked progressives, who had spent months assuming the nominee would be either Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

During that initial period of anger and denial, when many leftists refused to believe Biden’s triumph was real or irreversible, progressive media was filled with stories hyping up concerns about Biden’s mental fitness for the job and promoting accusations by Tara Reade, a former Biden Senate aide, that he had once sexually assaulted her. (Reade has largely been discredited and has since defected to Russia.)

As the campaign went on, Biden patched things up with the left with a series of gestures, adopting many of Warren’s policies and endorsing a “unity platform” co-written by Sanders, at which point progressives stopped calling him a senile rapist.

What this period of time shows is that the left’s relationship to Biden tends to spill beyond the boundaries of policy. When progressives feel invested in Biden’s success, they not only support his shared agenda but avoid attacking him generally. When they see him as an ideological rival or apostate, their opposition becomes sweeping and personal. And the depiction of Biden as a corrupt, doddering, and ineffectual warmonger has purchase both as an ideological critique from the far left and as a generalized attack that can easily be absorbed by cynical voters across the spectrum.

20) This is noteworthy, “What Did Top Israeli War Officials Really Say About Gaza? Journalists and jurists point to damning quotes from Israel’s war cabinet as evidence of genocidal intent. But the citations are not what they seem.”

21) Interesting thought, “What if Ozempic is the new orthodontia”

We live in a country that worships thinness and abhors, pathologizes or (at best) ignores fat people. When injectable weight-loss drugs become more affordable, weight loss will become even more obligatory. Being thin will no longer be an accident of birth or a perk of wealth; it will be a requirement of being middle class. Is this what we want?

Anti-fat bias already has a class element, in America at least, where there is a statistical link between poverty and obesity. But the social consequences of being fat in the semaglutide era are likely to get even worse — especially for children.

I think about it like teeth.

When my kids got braces, I knew they didn’t need them for their health, despite the case our orthodontist made for “avoiding future problems.” We weren’t paying for our children to have teeth that worked; we were paying for them to have teeth that looked “right.” The future problems we were avoiding were social, not dental.

I knew this instinctively, but the science backs me up: A 2020 review found “an absence of published evidence” on the effects of crooked teeth or orthodontics on oral health.

On the other hand, there is evidence that “dentofacial aesthetics plays a major role … in social interaction and psychological wellbeing.” Have crooked teeth? Expect to feel worse about yourself and be treated worse by others.

That is what I, as a parent, was insuring against. Having “good teeth” does correlate with class in the United States, where access to dental care is not guaranteed. The result is that crooked teeth look poor. Or, from the perspective of a middle-class, suburban parent, they look “wrong.”

I’m not proud of acting on this bias. It was my responsibility to ensure my kids took care of their teeth and got them cleaned. The braces, on the other hand — I knew — were pure cosmetic consumerism posing as a universal rite of passage. In the United States, where around 50 percent of children get orthodontic treatment, parents generally pay somewhere between $3,000 and $13,000 to “fix” our children’s appearance starting as young as age 7.

It’s as though half of us have been persuaded to buy our children nose jobs so they can “breathe easier.”

When my kids were getting braces, I thought about getting my own teeth fixed. But I didn’t. It was far easier for me to resist the pressure to have perfect teeth than to resist the pressure to give my children every social advantage I could afford.

That’s why I worry about the availability of weight-loss drugs.

The Food and Drug Administration has approved semaglutides for children as young as 12, and pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk (the manufacturer of Ozempic and Wegovy) and Eli Lilly are testing the drugs for use on children as young as 6. These drugs may be potential lifesavers for children struggling with diabetes. But what about otherwise healthy kids struggling with anti-fat bias?

Imagine if — to protect their children from the stigma of being fat — parents begin to fall for the lures not of orthodontics (teeth correcting) but of orthomorphics (shape correcting).

Imagine if the moment a child is deemed “chubby” or “husky,” parents rush to their local orthomorphist for a prescription to “fix” them.

22) I’ve been using Google/Chrome as my password manager for well over a year now.  It’s been working great.  The latest Wirecutter article tells me its not a good choice, but the reasons are far from compelling:

Using your browser’s password storage is far better than doing nothing; most major browsers support some kind of syncing across devices, offer encryption and two-factor authentication for password data, and can fill in other forms for you. But using a standalone password manager has one primary benefit: It can work across multiple operating systems and browsers depending on what you prefer. Interoperability is improving (you can now save a password in Chrome and access it in Safari on mobile, for example), but browser-based password managers still sometimes work only in that browser, and if they do offer support across platforms, that feature tends to be awkward to use. But those restrictions can be a strength, too: Built-in password managers are often easier to use for newcomers, and since they’re integrated at a system or browser level, they are less clunky and require less setup than standalone software.

Good standalone password managers also include features not often found in browser-based password managers, such as mechanisms for easily sharing passwords with family members and friends when many people need to log in to a single site. And because the password managers we recommend include standalone apps as well as browser extensions, you can easily use a password manager to store other data, such as software product keys, addresses, bank account numbers, and credit card numbers (some browsers also offer to store these things for you; others don’t).

Republicans and Covid vaccines

It’s crazy the degree to which Republican nonsense on Covid vaccines still drives health behaviors.  As this really nice Stat article pointed out, there’s actually a ton of people out there getting their annual flu shot, but not a Covid booster?  What’s up with that?  Well, the Republican elites, etc., never came out against a flu shot.  It’s all so stupid.  Stat:

America is over the Covid vaccine.

Frantic lineups for scarce doses when Covid vaccines first became available have long since given way to widespread indifference. Each new round of boosters has drawn fewer bared arms than the round before it. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that, as of Jan. 6, a mere 21.5% of Americans aged 18 and older and 11% of children have been vaccinated with the latest Covid vaccine.

But before you write off that number as a reflection of hesitancy over vaccines overall, consider this: 46.7% of Americans aged 18 and older and 47.5% of children have been vaccinated against influenza for this cold and flu season. In older adults, who are at the greatest risk from Covid, the gap is wider still; 73% of people 65 and older have received a flu shot, but only 41% have taken the Covid booster.

Why the disparity? Americans who regularly get a flu shot are just the type of people you’d expect would routinely get vaccinated against Covid. Yet as the statistics reveal, even many of them appear to have declined the latest booster…

For starters, there’s a veneer of politics clinging to the Covid vaccine that staid old flu vaccines do not have.

“Getting a Covid vaccine has come to symbolize identity politics in a way that no other vaccine really has,” said Gorman, who is the author of the upcoming book “The Anatomy of Deception: Conspiracy Theories, Distrust, and Public Health in America.”

“It is true that people on the left tend to get more vaccines in general. But even if you are sort of somewhere in the middle, and you still want your flu shot, but getting a Covid shot would mean associating yourself with a certain political identity that’s really not palatable to you, then you’re not going to do it,” she said.

Heidi Larson, director of the Vaccine Confidence Project, agreed, noting there is clear evidence of a political divide on Covid vaccine acceptance, with vaccination rates substantially higher among Democrats than among Republicans. Flu vaccine is simply not part of a political identity in that same way.

There is also a cloud of discomfort surrounding Covid vaccinations — questions about safety and effectiveness — that doesn’t hover over the flu vaccine, Schwartz noted.

The Constitutional amendment we really need

I’ve been saying for a long time, that one amendment we really need for the Constitution is an affirmative right to vote.  Voting rights expert and advocate Rick Hasen made a strong case for this in the NYT recently:

The history of voting in the United States shows the high cost of living with an old Constitution, unevenly enforced by a reluctant Supreme Court.

Unlike the constitutions of many other advanced democracies, the U.S. Constitution contains no affirmative right to vote. We have nothing like Section 3 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms, providing that “every citizen of Canada has the right to vote in an election of members of the House of Commons or of a legislative assembly and to be qualified for membership therein,” or like Article 38 of the Basic Law of the Federal Republic of Germany, which provides that when it comes to election of the Bundestag, “any person who has attained the age of 18 shall be entitled to vote.”

As we enter yet another fraught election season, it’s easy to miss that many problems we have with voting and elections in the United States can be traced to this fundamental constitutional defect. Our problems are only going to get worse until we get constitutional change.

Most expansions of voting rights in the United States have come from constitutional amendments and congressional action, not from courts. In fact, in Bush v. Gore, to give a relatively recent example, the Supreme Court reiterated that the Constitution does not guarantee citizens the right to vote for president and confirmed that states may take back the power to appoint presidential electors directly in future elections…

Since the passage of the 15th Amendment, voting rights proponents have argued that the lack of an affirmative right to vote in the Constitution is a fatal flaw, a point I first acknowledged on these pages in 2020. Since then, it’s become clear that three American voting pathologies have emerged from the U.S. Constitution’s lack of an affirmative right to vote…

First, states sometimes limit the franchise or put barriers in front of eligible voters, like onerous residency requirements or strict voter identification laws…

The second pathology is an explosion of election litigation and uncertainty about election rules. Each year states and localities pass new voting rules, and those voting rules often get challenged in court, with mixed success. The amount of election litigation has nearly tripled since the disputed 2000 election. An affirmative right to vote in the Constitution could de-escalate the voting wars and decrease the amount of election litigation by simultaneously protecting voter access and ensuring election integrity…

The third pathology is the risk of election subversion. An explicit guarantee of the right to vote for president would moot any attempt to get state legislatures to override the voters’ choice for president through the appointment of alternative slates of electors, as Donald Trump and his allies tried to do after the 2020 election. Rules that guarantee not only the right to vote but also the right to have that vote fairly and accurately counted would provide a basis for going after election officials who sought to disrupt the integrity of election systems. Leaks of voting system software or an administrator’s lack of transparency in counting ballots could become constitutional violations…

It might seem anachronistic today that a conservative state like Texas would seek to disenfranchise military voters. But the Carrington example shows that no community’s voting rights are safe from the whims of state legislatures and often have depended on the grace of the courts. It’s an odd way to run a republic in which citizens are supposed to have an equal right to vote.

Photo of the day

A gallery of rat selfies from the NYT.  So cool.

Some cool PS research on abortion

From me (and my always-awesome co-authors on all this abortion stuff).  We presented a conference paper in New Orleans a couple of weeks ago and the ever-intrepid Matt Shipman here at NCSU wrote up a great article on our findings, “Study: The More People Know About Pregnancy, the More Likely They Are to Support Access to Abortion”

A new study on public attitudes toward abortion laws finds that the more people know about pregnancy, the more likely they are to oppose legislation that limits women’s access to abortions – regardless of political ideology. The study also found that laws that limit access to abortion after 12 weeks did not have greater support than laws that limit access to abortion after six weeks.

“There is a tremendous amount of research on public attitudes toward abortion in the United States, but very little of that work has been done since the Dobbs v. Jackson decision in 2022 that overturned Roe v. Wade,” says Steven Greene, co-author of the study and a professor of political science at North Carolina State University. “We wanted to ask questions that directly address the policy issues raised in state legislatures in the wake of Dobbs.

“Will people support a politician who promotes six-week bans? Will people support a politician who promotes 12-week bans? Do people who understand that these weeks are counted starting from a woman’s most recent period view abortion laws differently from people who think that these weeks are counted from when a woman actually got pregnant?”

To explore these issues, the researchers surveyed 1,356 U.S. adults. The demographics of the study participants were broadly representative of the U.S. population. Politically, 43% of study participants were Democrats or leaned Democratic; 38% were Republican or leaned Republican; with the remainder being independent.

“We found that people who had a better understanding of pregnancy were more opposed to legislation restricting access to abortion,” Greene says. “Basically, people who knew what a trimester was and who knew how we count the weeks of a pregnancy – that it’s done dating back to a woman’s last period, rather than to conception – are more likely to oppose laws limiting women’s access to the full range of reproductive health care options.”

The researchers also found that 12-week bans did not garner any more political support from study participants than the six-week bans.

“This suggests that efforts by some politicians to promote 12-week bans as a moderate, or compromise, position are likely not effective,” Greene says.

“One possible take-away here is that efforts to educate the public on basic sex education may be a viable strategy for groups trying to build support for women’s access to abortion.”

A paper on the study, “Public Opinion on Abortion in Post-Roe America,” was presented at the Southern Political Science Association Conference, which was held Jan. 10-13 in New Orleans. The paper was co-authored by Laurel Elder of Hartwick College and by Mary-Kate Lizotte of Augusta University. The researchers will be incorporating this work into a forthcoming book on the politics of abortion after Dobbs.

Here’s some cool figures:

Everybody seems to love the pregnancy knowledge stuff, which was, honestly, almost an afterthought.  Our original intention– very much inspired by NC’s 12-week abortion ban this summer– was to see if 12 week bans are, in fact, more popular than 6 week bans when tested in an experimental context, including language that reflects real world framing.  Survey says… no.

Tax cuts > democracy

And to stick with a theme, it’s not just extreme cowardice that brought us to this point, it’s extreme greed as well.  I don’t know how else to characterize people being so damn cavalier about democracy in their desire for ever lower taxes.  Loved this in Yglesias‘ recent mailbag:

One thing that has genuinely changed is that an American business community that was pretty wary of Trump during his term in office has looked at Biden and remembered that Democrats favor higher taxes and tougher business regulation and Republicans don’t. Biden, for example, is cracking down on abusive bank overdraft fees. You might ask yourself “what kind of person would throw in with fascists just to avoid government regulation of abusive bank overdraft fees?” But that is, in fact, exactly how right-wing authoritarian movements come to power: Rich people decide that right-wing authoritarians will help them have more money.

Back in 2020, I think a lot of these business-type Republicans hoped that Trump losing would bring back the old version of the GOP that they liked more. But Biden has both gotten more done than they thought he would (which to them is bad), and it’s also clear that the old free trade GOP isn’t coming back, one way or another. So you may as well back the guy who promises you tax cuts.

Of course, as is often the case, greed makes people short-sighted.  Businesses perform better in flourishing democracies, not quasi-authoritarian states like Hungary.  But, of course, all the “lower my taxes” people like to just ignore the overwhelming evidence of Trump’s threats to American democracy because it is far more mentally convenient to do so.  If I were going to get a tattoo of a quote– and to be clear, I never will!!– it would be this from Upton Sinclair: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

 

 

Republican cowardice got us here

Good stuff from Chait today:

A recent poll breaks down the Republican electorate in the cleanest way. Asked if they believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election legitimately or only due to voter fraud, Nikki Haley has a 56-point margin among those who believe Biden legitimately won. But Trump has a staggering 74-point margin among those who don’t.

Haley’s problem is that only 42 percent of the voters believe Biden won in 2020. Worse, New Hampshire, chock-full of independent and socially moderate Republicans, is one of her better states. Nationally, some two-thirds of Republicans believe Trump genuinely won.

Incumbent presidents who are running for reelection almost always win the nomination. Why? Because they won last time, and parties like nominating winners. Defeated candidates who run for the nomination usually lose. Why? Because they lost last time, and parties hate nominating losers.

If Republicans wanted their party to nominate somebody other than Donald Trump — and most of the party’s elected officials and donors did, at least secretly — then they needed their voters to understand that he lost the 2020 election. But doing so required hard steps they were never willing to take.

The outbreak of conscientiousness that swept through the Republican Party after January 6, 2021 gave way like a fever. One week after the insurrection, Axios reported that Republicans were “divided whether to do it with one quick kill via impeachment, or let him slowly fade away.” The framing of the question answered itself: Why take on the risk of fighting Trump and alienating his supporters when he would simply go away on his own?

Soon after, they decided the handful of Republicans who continued to oppose him were making themselves a bother, and either stood by or actively joined in efforts to remove them from their posts. National Review, the headquarters of anti-anti-Trump Republicanism, wrote exactly two months after the insurrection, “so long as the House Republican caucus is unwilling or unable to break with Trump, and so long as Trump and his most-devoted supporters demand that they not change their mind and not change the subject, the caucus’s leadership may as well reflect that.”

The party was divided over Trump’s election lies and coup attempt, but the divide had an asymmetric quality. One faction was obsessed with litigating its beliefs and repeating them endlessly, while the opposing faction only wanted the issue to go away. The outcome of this one-sided argument was inevitable. The percentage of Republicans who believed Trump has steadily risen.

Now, I’m actually generally fairly forgiving of cowardice.  I’m not sure how brave I (or most people) would be in tough situations. That’s why we value bravery.  But, standing up to Trump’s lies, especially in 2021, did not require some extraordinary amount of bravery.  What we’ve seen from so many Republican goes beyond cowardice to a complete power-hungry, moral rot that is just completely inexcusable.  And, here we are with quite arguably the most corrupt, self-centered, anti-Democratic politician in American history on the verge of his party’s presidential nomination.