Protesters and police are both learning– and that’s good!

I was very sorry to hear that Raleigh, NC suffered pretty heavy vandalism and some looting in protests this weekend.  To my knowledge, Raleigh is a pretty good police force that does the right things the right way and is led by an African-American woman who I hear good things about (and has an MPA from my department!).  

As I’ve discussed with many, I’m so frustrated by the violence and looting (which I really think is, typically, truly just a handful of bad actors taking advantage of the situation) because it takes away from such an important message that, otherwise, would really be coming through loud and clear (and I think is coming through, just muddled by the damn vandalism and looting).

Obviously, the more thoughtful protesters absolutely realize the violence muddles their very important message.  And, the more thoughtful police departments recognize that they should absolutely be looking to de-escalate, not escalate, tense situations.  From what I’ve seen in my non-scientific survey, there was a lot less violence and mayhem in Tuesday protests.  I don’t know if Raleigh was representative in this way, but I sure liked what I read:

Police in downtown Raleigh took a dramatically different posture Tuesday toward the protesters who filled the city’s downtown streets for the fourth evening in a row with demonstrations against police brutality.

Officers in riot gear and National Guard troops in fatigues were relatively rare sightings. Officers put more distance between themselves and demonstrators than on previous nights, some of which were marked by repeated use of tear gas, pepper spray and rubber bullets. And protesters were more focused on sharing personal stories of injustice and presenting demands than directly confronting police…

Most of the more than 1,000 protesters who came out Tuesday went home around 8 p.m., when a citywide curfew took effect for the second night.

But about 45 minutes later, about 100 sat in Lane Street in front of the Governor’s Mansion. Police cars circulated, periodically playing a recorded message telling protesters that they were violating curfew…

The Raleigh Police Department did not make any arrests, according to a news release sent shortly after midnight…

Police acknowledged protesters’ effort. After demonstrators at the State Capitol shouted, “kneel with us” in the afternoon, officers took a knee and were greeted with hugs. The gesture was a reference to Colin Kaepernick’s protests against police brutality when he played football in the NFL.

State Capitol Police Chief Chip Hawley said officers took a knee to “show our deep and abiding respect for the value of all human lives.” …

“We hear you, and we understand your frustration,” Hawley said in an emailed statement. “We want you to know your voices and your message has not fallen on deaf ears. We understand we should be and want to be part of the solution to this problem.”

Raleigh police waiting in a line in front of the Raleigh Municipal Building did the same later in the afternoon. A group of protesters asked officers to kneel with them. Each officer took a knee for a few seconds. Some protesters shook hands with the officers. Others considered the act a publicity stunt and shouted insults.

National Guard troops were visible near the State Capitol, and police in riot gear could be seen in buses, but police and protesters never clashed. Raleigh police said they told protesters several times that they were in violation of the curfew but gave them an opportunity to voluntarily leave.

Hooray for all involved– that’s how it’s done!  I’d like to think that the protesters policed themselves of anybody tending towards violence (or maybe the violence-prone ones have already had their fill) and the police, this time, absolutely showed the restraint, flexibility, and thoughtfulness that the situation demands.  Hooray for them.  Nobody got hurt.  The important message of the protesters was not diminished by violence, and the police showed that they can behave with restraint and proper discretion.

Again, this was just Raleigh, but I’d like to think both protesters and police forces around the country and both adapting in this way.  The message is out there.  I truly believe we are undergoing a shift that will actually result in better policy for better policing in the future, but that shift means the focus is on peaceful protests and the message of ending police brutality, not on riots, vandalism, and looting, which, if even a tiny fraction of what happens, will, inevitably be what leads media coverage and thus the overall narrative.  

 

Raleigh Police Detective B.H. Winston, a veteran of 16 years, fist bumps Albert Fervily after having a conversation with Keesh Ormond, left and Dante Robinson following a rally at the Raleigh Municipal Building on Tuesday, June 2, 2020 in Raleigh, N.C. Robert Willett RWILLETT@NEWSOBSERVER.COM

Stop the super-spreaders!

Great NYT Op-Ed on the central role super-spreaders and super-spreading events are playing in the pandemic.  It really is amazing the proportion of the overall transmissions that seem to be related to super-spreaders.  We cannot know which people are especially infectious.  But we can and do know what types of events (church services, crowded bars and night clubs) are especially likely to lead to super-spreading events.  So, let’s make damn well sure we keep those from happening.  I would’ve liked to have seen an estimate on what just eliminating super-spreading events does to Rt, but would not be surprised if it puts it below 1.0.  Anyway…

In the case of SARS-CoV-2, evidence is growing that superspreading is a hugely significant factor of total transmission.

Take Hong Kong, which as of June 2 had 1,088 confirmed or probable cases (and four deaths), for a population of about 7.5 million. The city has managed to largely suppress local outbreaks of Covid-19 without a lockdown or mandatory blanket stay-at-home orders, favoring instead a strategy of testing people suspected of being infected, tracing and quarantining their contacts and isolating confirmed cases in the hospital — coupled with outright bans or other restrictions on large social gatherings.

After these measures were progressively relaxed in recent weeks, a new outbreak of seven cases, possibly a superspreading event, has been reported over the past few days: Three are employees of a food-packing company; the other four live in the same housing estate as one of the employees.

We recently published a preprint (a preliminary paper, still to be peer-reviewed) about 1,038 cases of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong between Jan. 23 and April 28 that, using contact-tracing data, identified all local clusters of infection.

We found that superspreading has overwhelmingly contributed to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the city overall…

In our study, just 20 percent of cases, all of them involving social gatherings, accounted for an astonishing 80 percent of transmissions. (That, along with other things, suggests that the dispersion factor, k, of SARS-CoV-2 is about 0.45).

Another 10 percent of cases accounted for the remaining 20 percent of transmissions — with each of these infected people on average spreading the virus to only one other person, maybe two people. This mostly occurred within households.

No less astonishing was this corollary finding: Seventy percent of the people infected did not pass on the virus to anyone… [emphases mine]

It stands to reason, too, that a highly contagious person is more likely to spread the infection in a crowd (at a wedding, in a bar, during a sporting event) than in a small group (within their household), and when contact is extensive or repeated.

Transmission is more likely during gatherings indoors than outdoors. Simply ventilating a room can help. We believe that with the South Korean call-center cluster, the essential factor of transmission was the extent of time spent in a crowded office area.

Also consider this counterexample: Japan. The government recently lifted a state of emergency after controlling its epidemic without having put in place any stringent social distancing measures or even doing much testing. Instead, it relied on largely voluntary measures encouraging people to stay at home and advice to avoid overcrowding in public venues.

In essence, Japan adopted an anti-superspreading strategy. The approach was targeted at limiting what some researchers from Tohoku University have called the “three Cs”: closed spaces, crowds and close contacts.

Will also mention here that Japan also adopted very widespread mask use.

But the considerable role of superspreading in this pandemic should be reassuring, too, because it also suggests a way to stop SARS-CoV-2 that is both less onerous and more effective than many of the strategies that have been pursued so far.

The epidemic’s growth can be controlled with tactics far less disruptive, socially and economically, than the extended lockdowns or other extreme forms of social distancing that much of the world has experienced over the past few months.

Forget about maintaining — or, if infections resurge, resuming — sweeping measures designed to stem the virus’s spread in all forms. Just focus on stopping the superspreading.

Of course, what remains to be well understood is whether a K-12 school is a likely source of super-spreading.  Evidence so far, actually, suggests generally not.  Or, what about a socially-distanced university classroom (as NC State and many others are currently planning)?

Anyway, overall, I do find this quite encouraging because I would be so willing to give up all the known super-spreading if I did know that in so doing my kids could go to school, I could teach my socially-distanced classes, and socialize with a small number of friends.

Also, I think that the lack of predicted surges/waves in states that opened up early, e.g., Georgia, or were always pretty lax, e.g., Texas, might well be attributed to the fact that even with their “opening up” there’s a lot less of the typical super-spreading type events.

For now, I’ll leave you with this once again.