The limits of abortion-based voting

I made it into USA Today this week talking about a referendum on abortion in Arkansas.  I particularly appreciated this interview as I got to discuss the complexity of the issue make the too-often overlooked point that while abortion as a single issue does great on the ballot– even in red states– it is clearly not stopping these same voters from voting for extremely anti-abortion Republican legislators:

Even before the Dobbs decision, Americans’ views on abortion were more complex — and less passionate — than the political rhetoric would suggest, said Steven Greene, a political science professor at North Carolina State University who has studied the subject for decades. 

“There really are a lot of people who think abortion should be mostly legal, but they aren’t quite sure when and don’t have the strongest feelings on it,” Greene said. 

Lynette Panique, a volunteer who was canvassing at the Pride event in Little Rock for the ballot measure, inhabits that middle ground of the abortion debate. Until 10 years ago, she would have called herself “strictly pro-life.” 

“Even as a Christian,” she said, “I still believe in the right to choose, just because it’s not a black and white issue.” 

Republicans’ staunch opposition to abortion appealed to a passionate base, Greene said. The protections Roe v. Wade provided for 50 years meant that Republicans with more ambivalent attitudes on abortion could view their party’s fierce anti-abortion stance as merely rhetorical. 

The Democratic Party, Greene said, has also hardened its stance on abortion in recent years…

A win in a deep red, Southern state could upend the national debate on abortion, the organizers believe. It could make Republican politicians, they say, rethink their support for anti-abortion measures nationwide. 

Still, Greene, the political scientist, is skeptical a win for abortion rights in Arkansas would have an effect beyond the state.  

When abortion is presented as a ballot measure, voters have supported easing restrictions, even in conservative states like Ohio. But those same voters still elect politicians who oppose abortion. And in the South, only Arkansas, Florida and Oklahoma currently allow voter-driven ballot measures. 

Most voters, Greene believes, support some abortion access, but the issue is not a high enough priority to determine which politicians they elect…

“I think the evidence is pretty clear that state legislators who vote for very extreme bans do not seem to be punished for it,” he said. “Certainly not in red states.” 

Now, when there’s a presidential candidate on the ballot who is more responsible than any other person for taking away the right to an abortion?  That remains to be seen.  But it sure ain’t gonna help Trump.