Authoritarianism is bad for business!

I’ve been meaning to write something about this for a while now, but since I waited I just get to quote heavily from Catherine Rampell’s latest (gift link), “Those who would trade democracy for economic gain would get neither”

Apparently, that’s not so obvious to a few industry titans. Financiers and oil execs have lately bet that another Donald Trump presidency would bring more tax cuts and deregulation, among other near-term financial gains. And, hey, maybe it would. But they should consider also the longer-term economic damage they might endure if they help put an open authoritarian back in office.

Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen recently spoke about the “economic case for democracy” at the McCain Institute. Likewise, Brookings Institution senior fellow Vanessa Williamson warned last month about the economic consequences of democratic backsliding and urged the business community to serve as a bulwark for democratic institutions. Both cited research finding causal links between democratic institutions and higher economic growth.

That’s because democracies tend to be better at a whole bunch of things critical to economic flourishing, such as maintaining the rule of law; protecting property rights; providing public goods (education, public health, infrastructure); ensuring policymakers are accountable to all citizens (not just their cronies); and resolving disputes via compromise rather than violence. (Violence, you might have heard, is not great for business.)

There’s more to capitalism that tax cuts, in other words. [emphases mine] Why would anyone engage in a private economic transaction without assurance that their counterparty can be held accountable if they don’t deliver, regardless of political connections? Why would a company invest if it’s unclear whether the state might expropriate their assets without cause?

Or as Yellen aptly put it: “Every day the rule of law supports thousands of other economic decisions — from purchasing a home because you know your deed will be upheld in court to expanding your business because you will be competing based on your ingenuity and hard work, not on the biggest bribe to your local officials.”

These are the attributes that make the United States a better place to do business than, say, Russia or China — whose strongman leaders Trump has explicitly praised and sometimes tried to emulate…

“I think some C.E.O.s are telling themselves that there were similar warnings about Trump in 2016, and that they believe he’s so transactional that they can work with him,” New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman explained. They’ll make their deal with their preferred devil, who’ll surely exercise self-restraint.

How naive. Trump is notorious for reneging on his promises — to banks, small-time contractors, political allies and yes, even people who think they’re his friends. This might involve shredding a deal or relationship entirely, or shaking down counterparties for more.

Sure, business leaders might get a few lousy tax cuts. What else might they get, now that the adults have all left the room? Trump is advertising, and wannabe oligarchs are implicitly endorsing, the idea that U.S. democracy is for sale. What price might Russia or Saudi Arabia need to pay for a similar bargain? Or, for that matter, a significant TikTok investor, who seems to have lately changed Trump’s mind about the Beijing-linked social network?

What happens if these U.S. companies and megadonors get outbid?

U.S. business titans might think they’re trading democracy for financial gain. In reality, they’re gambling both.

How much do Americans know about pregnancy? And does it matter for abortion policy?

1) Not as much as they should! 2) Yes.

Or, so goes the argument from Laurel Elder, Mary-Kate Lizotte, and yours truly in a piece in The Conversation based on our recent research:

Most Americans don’t know two key facts about pregnancy, including how they are dated and how long a trimester is – and this could matter, as a growing number of states place restrictions on abortion.

Florida enacted a new law on May 1, 2024, that bans abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, with a few exceptions – including documented rape, incest and to save the life of the mother…

Some OB-GYNs have explained that many women do not even know they are pregnant at six weeks. Research shows that women on average find out they are pregnant at five and a half weeks. About 23% do not know until seven weeks of pregnancy or later.

So, do Americans, including those enacting six-week bans, actually understand how the timing or dating of pregnancy works?…

To gain insights into this issue, we developed a few pregnancy questions and included them in a research survey in late September 2023. The survey had 1,356 respondents, who were broadly representative of the U.S. population. The respondents’ median age was 46. Approximately 49% of these people were men, while 70% were white and 29% were college graduates. Meanwhile, 43% of them were Democrats, and 38% were Republicans.

The first question asked respondents how pregnancies are dated. The correct answer is that pregnancies are dated using the first day of the woman’s last menstrual period, which is often two to three weeks before conception.

The second question asked about trimesters. Many Americans are familiar with the term trimester, and polling consistently shows that Americans find abortion most acceptable during the first trimester. We asked Americans if they knew approximately how many weeks a trimester was. The correct answer is 13.

Americans’ pregnancy knowledge

We found that only one-third of respondents knew how pregnancy is dated. A majority – approximately 60% – falsely thought that pregnancy is dated from conception or in the weeks since the woman last had sex. Less than one-fourth of the respondents answered both pregnancy knowledge questions correctly.

In our survey, we also asked respondents whether they support a six-week abortion ban. Similar to other national surveys, we find that most Americans oppose strict abortion restrictions – only 35% support six-week bans.

Importantly, we find that those who support six-week abortion bans are significantly less likely than others to correctly understand the timing of pregnancy. The statistically significant relationship between having low levels of pregnancy timing knowledge and support for a six-week abortion ban holds in analyses controlling for potentially confounding variables.

And, if you want the full academic version, you can read it here.