New Iowa poll: this changes everything!

Kidding.  But based on the dramatic headline in the Post, you’d think it does: “Buttigieg leaps ahead of Democratic rivals in Iowa, new poll shows”

What this means is that Buttigieg gets to be a serious contender for at least some time after Iowa.  That’s all it means.  Past Iowa Caucus winners include: Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, and Dick Gephardt.  And, yes, Obama, HRC, GWB, etc.

You cannot totally bomb (relative to expectations) in Iowa and go on to win.  But, actually winning Iowa probably doesn’t mean all that much.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State

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