Trump’s presidency really is in jeopardy

The conventional wisdom has coalesced quite rapidly that, impeachment or not, there’s no way you get to 67 votes in the Senate to remove Trump.  And, yet, I’m not so sure at all of that.

Based on what we know for certain right now, that’s true, you really don’t get to 67 votes to remove.  Here’s the thing, though.  To be Rumsfeldian, the known unknowns are the issue.  We know there’s a server that has damaging political information on it, but not exactly what.  We know that Trump’s lackeys have broken many a law and are in criminal jeopardy– which may very well affect their likelihood of trying to save their own skin.  We know that Trump is fantasticially corrupt and with the enhanced oversight powers that come with an official impeachment investigation, more highly-damning information may well turn up.

In short, it is quite plausible that sufficient, additional information comes out that truly dooms Trump’s presidency.  While the Jim Jordans and Mark Meadows and Lindsey Grahams of the world will clearly say any nonsense in defense of the president, a substantial number of Republican Senators have been eerily quiet on the matter.  There really is a line too far.  And it would very much seem there’s a non-trivial chance that Trump has blown past that line and that such information will come out.

Right now, Predictit has Trump at 71% to finish his term (down from 85% a month ago) and that strikes me as about right.  I do think he is more likely than not to finish his term, but will not be remotely surprised if the political situation changes sufficiently (primarily from the revelations of additional damning information) that he really is run out of office.

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