The white people divide

So, I’ve written a lot about the increasing polarization of white voters based on college education, but I think the polarization based on religion is definitely an interesting one, too.  Here, Ron Brownstein (political demographic analyst non pareil) makes the case that, “The foundation of Trump’s coalition is cracking.”  As always, lots of cool charts and numbers, but I think the most interesting ones look at the religion divide.  A key chart:

And some of the analysis:

Though Republican candidates almost everywhere registered large margins among white voters without a college degree, Democrats ran much more competitively among the roughly half of that group who are not evangelical Christians, according to previously unpublished results from the 2018 exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of media organizations including CNN.
Democrats, the analysis found, ran particularly well this year among white working-class women who are not evangelicals, a group that also displayed substantial disenchantment in the exit poll with Trump’s performance. Those women could be a key constituency for Democrats in 2020 in pivotal Rust Belt states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where relatively fewer blue-collar whites are also evangelical Christians.

Nationwide, nearly three-fifths of blue-collar white women who are not evangelicals voted Democratic in last month’s House races, while an equal number said they disapproved of Trump’s performance in office, the analysis of exit poll results found. That was well over double the Democratic share of the vote among non-college white women who are evangelical Christians. And while Republicans last month still carried a majority among working-class white men who are not evangelicals, Democrats attracted about twice as much support from them as they did among the equivalent men who are evangelicals.

“It’s another overlay to the conclusion that there are some parts of the white non-college population that are open to Democrats and can be moved a few points in your direction,” says Ruy Teixeira, a long-time Democratic analyst of voting trends who now serves as a senior fellow at the liberal Center for American Progress.

In short, those people who claim to love Jesus the most are also the most immovable in their support of party that stands for separating families on our border, making it harder for poor kids to have food to eat, and making it harder for Americans to be able to afford health care.  But the good news is that they are a shrinking portion of the electorate and “not all white people” are so closed-minded.

Also, some good analysis of what this means for the Democrats in 2020 in the article, if you are so inclined.

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