Yet another super-duper-cool map

Bloomberg has an amazing piece looking at American land use patterns with all sorts of really cool maps.  This last one is kind of the summary map.  Definitely worth checking them all out!  Also, OMG, the pasture-land!  (And too much golf)


College-educated white women are done with the Republican Party

Check this out via Philip Bump:

Of course, conversely, white non-college men are done with Democrats.  But, as Drum points out, that’s really part of an ongoing trend, whereas, with college-educated women, hard to see that as anything but a Trump effect.

Is Trump’s popularity among Republicans because there are fewer Republicans?

It’s obviously a very reasonable argument and one I’ve seen made a number of times.  Friend/reader, TB, sent me a link to this Politifact piece that largely makes this case:

On July 10, he said in a tweet, “New Poll says Trump, at over 90%, is the most popular Republican in history of the Party.”

And three days later, in an interview with the British newspaper The Sun, Trump said, “You know, a poll just came out that I am the most popular person in the history of the Republican Party. Beating Lincoln. I beat our Honest Abe.”

Trump has reason to crow about his popularity among Republicans: His approval rating within his own party has ranged from 84 percent to 90 percent since mid April 2018…

In the meantime, a smaller proportion of Americans are identifying themselves as Republicans, said Steven Smith, a political scientist at Washington University in St. Louis.

According to Gallup, the share of Americans who call themselves Republicans was 31 percent from Feb. 1-5, 2017, the first measure after Trump was inaugurated. But between March and July 2018, that number has ranged between 23 percent and 27 percent.

While the shift is small, Smith said, it may be a sign that some critics of Trump within the Republican Party are simply leaving the party for now, rather than registering a negative assessment to pollsters as a Republican.

This argument caught my eye, as professor and polling guru, Charles Franklin, made a very different argument on twitter last week, also using Gallup data.  If you are into polling data, definitely read the whole thread, but here’s the summary tweet:

It makes sense that decent people who value small government, but not xenophobia and child torture and bigoted presidents should be fleeing the Republican Party, but the actual evidence on that is “maybe, but a very modest amount” at best.  Yes, the Republican base consists of lots of people with some pretty odious views on minorities, immigrants, women, etc., but there’s clearly also a lot of people who are willing to put up with that to get their tax cuts or pro-life judges and they are not leaving in any significant numbers.

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