Photo of the day

This Atlantic gallery of Audubon photography winners is one of my favorite galleries ever.  So many amazing images.

A Dalmatian Pelican lands on Lake Kerkini, Greece. 

Christina Sautter / Audubon Photography Awards

Yes, it’s the racism and xenophobia!


ice new analysis from political scientist, Steven V. Miller (who I imagine is extra insistent on that middle initial these days) on the role of racial resentment in immigration attitudes.  Short version– yes, it’s the damn racial resentment, stop pretending otherwise!  Somewhat less short version, i.e., the paper’s abstract:

Does ‘economic anxiety’ explain attitudes toward immigration or can we better understand attitudes toward immigration as a function of ethnocentrism and racial resentment? This is a long-standing empirical debate in immigration opinion research and the election of Donald Trump, who consistently communicated anti-immigration hysteria on the campaign trail, has only intensified the salience of this debate. However, any focus on this debate by reference to the 2016 presidential election will struggle to distinguish the relative effects of ‘economic anxiety’ and racial resentment because the current political climate is one in which racial resentment may also influence attitudes about the economy. I help settle this debate with a battery of analyses on attitudes toward immigration across the American National Election Studies and Voter Study Group data, spanning analyses on immigration opinion for white Americans from 1992 to 2016. I further leverage the metadata these data provide by estimating the effects of unemployment and exposure to automation/outsourcing at levels as granular as the state, the county, the ZIP code, and the core-based statistical area. My analyses are unequivocal that racial resentment is reliably the largest and most precise predictor of attitudes toward immigration. [emphasis mine] Further analyses and simulations from a cherry-picked model most consistent with the ‘economic anxiety’ argument show that a standard deviation increase in racial resentment is still a greater magnitude effect than all ‘economic anxiety’ proxies combined and set to their conceivable max. I close with implications for immigration opinion research, given its increased salience after 2016.

Here’s his tweet with more info and link to the paper.

And the table here shows how racial resentment dwarfs all other factors– including, of course, economic anxiety.

How I am like a poor, uneducated Republican

I’m a fan of having 3+ children.  Gallup has been polling on “ideal family size” for years.  The first chart is pretty dramatic as we can see how this has changed:


They also have a table breaking this down by demographics, from which I derived the title of the post:

Meanwhile, a nice piece in the Uphsot about why young adults say they want fewer children:

Wanting more leisure time and personal freedom; not having a partner yet; not being able to afford child-care costs — these were the top reasons young adults gave for not wanting or not being sure they wanted children, according to a new survey conducted by Morning Consult for The New York Times.

The survey, one of the most comprehensive explorations of the reasons that adults are having fewer children, tells a story that is partly about greater gender equality. Women have more agency over their lives, and many feel that motherhood has become more of a choice.

But it’s also a story of economic insecurity. Young people have record student debt, many graduated in a recession and many can’t afford homes — all as parenthood has become more expensive. Women in particular pay an earnings penalty for having children.

“We want to invest more in each child to give them the best opportunities to compete in an increasingly unequal environment,” said Philip Cohen, a sociologist at the University of Maryland who studies families and has written about fertility.

At the same time, he said, “There is no getting around the fact that the relationship between gender equality and fertility is very strong: There are no high-fertility countries that are gender equal.”

My take?  Just have more kids.

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