My Mueller report prediction

I was discussing this with a friend yesterday and even though I’m not particularly good at political predictions, I figured I ought to make it here so that if I am right, I can say, “see, I predicted this way back in April!” :-).

Okay, so here’s my thinking…

1) Mueller is a stand-up guy and in uncovering all he is surely uncovering about Trump, must surely have come to the conclusion that Trump should not be president.

2) Mueller knows it’s really not his place to recommend criminal charges or, probably, even impeachment, but just to present the facts of what he found out.

3) Mueller is a smart guy and knows, therefore, that the best chance of any meaningful accountability for Trump starts with a Democratically-controlled house of Congress.  It is, sadly, clear as day we’re not getting any accountability from GOP “leaders.”

4) Therefore, if Mueller truly wants accountability for Trump (which he almost surely does), the best way to bring that about his to help bring about a Democratic House come 2019.

5) Best way to do that is to release his report which will surely be harmful, and possibly much worse, for Republican electoral fortunes at the moment of greatest political impact.

6) That’s not late October 2018 because that’s too obviously political.  So, my prediction is that he releases his report as late as possible (early September?) that it will still clearly have a midterm election impact, but that it is far enough away that he can plausibly argue that it was not timed to have an electoral impact.

Obviously, odds are that I’m wrong about this.  But, even if this is not what Mueller does, I think there’s a pretty good case that it is what he should do.

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About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

2 Responses to My Mueller report prediction

  1. R. Jenrette says:

    I’ve heard that Mueller will release his reports in separate topics. The first one is said to be the obstruction of justice report. Then Paul Manafort’s trial is scheduled for July. So Sept. seems like a good time to release a report on at least one of the remaining topics such as conspiracy to influence the presidential election, money laundering, campaign finance illegalities and bank fraud.
    It’s always possible that new areas of inquiry will emerge in as the investigations continue.
    One of these at least is bound to stick. Isn’t it?

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