The chart to keep in mind for 2018

Love this from Pew that compares people who vote consistently in presidential and midterm elections with those who just vote in the presidential years.  It makes it pretty damn clear we have had a recent pattern of Democrats performing well in presidential years (and, let not forget the 2016 popular vote) and getting various levels of creamed in the midterm years.

In large part, because Democrats rely so heavily on young voters and minority voters, they disproportionately suffer from the drop-off in midterm years.  For example, the youngest cohort is only 6% of consistent voters, but 20% of drop-off voters.  Even more dramatically, non-white voters are only 20% of consistent voters, but 38% of drop-off voters.  Now, the Democrats are almost surely more likely to drop off more, again, in 2018, but the key is to have dramatically less drop-off.  And, I actually think there’s a decent chance of that.  Regardless, this is the baseline to keep in mind.


About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State

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