This is what repeal looks like

CBO report out today.  Drum’s summary of the key points is good and succinct:

Senate Democrats asked for an estimate of what would happen if Obamacare were repealed. Here’s the CBO’s answer:

  • 18 million people would lose insurance. By 2026, that would increase to 32 million.
  • Premiums in the individual market would skyrocket, increasing 20-25 percent in the first year and about 50 percent by 2026.
  • Insurers would exit the individual market en masse. About half the nation’s population would live in areas with no individual insurers at all, rising to three-quarters by 2026.

That is inconvenient, isn’t it? This is what happens if you eliminate Obamacare but keep in place the ban on pre-existing conditions—which Republicans all say they support and which they can’t repeal anyway. Premiums would skyrocket, 32 million people would lose coverage, and insurers would abandon about three-quarters of the country.

This is what Republicans need to address with their “replace” plan. But they can’t do it and they know it.

How long before the Republicans just try to banish the CBO and replace it with the CRU (Congressional Unicorns and Rainbows) which would make their plans work out okay?

Democrats need to hammer and hammer and hammer on these facts above.  And hammer some more.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State

5 Responses to This is what repeal looks like

  1. Mike in Chapel Hill says:

    Maybe this is just what the country needs. I suspect that a majority of Trump voters, and a majority of Republicans, have no idea of all the useful, invisible, and important things the government provides. Maybe if a lot of those things go away folks will realize the important role of government. Folks used to understand because without government involvement they wouldn’t have had farm to city roads, electricity, telephone service, sewerage, trains, etc. So many of these historical episodes are absent from our collective memories. It is time for some hard knock lessons.

  2. rgbact says:

    The same CBO thats been wrong on everything so far. Just last year, they were off by 8M on their enrollment estimates.You would think they’d self correct. But nope, they keep making the same horrible forecasts. 18M is delusional. At this point, more people are being forced to buy ACA than actually want it, so few are losing anything…but a big insurance bill.

    • Jon K says:

      Again since you did not answer my question the first time I asked it:

      Since at some point everyone is going to need to use healthcare, doesn’t it make sense to require everyone to participate in the system? I fail to see how anyone is hurt by the individual mandate. If we do away with it than preexisting conditions cannot be covered. An insurance market where it is possible to wait until you are sick to buy coverage will collapse. Healthy people are necessary for health insurance to work. The healthy subsidize the sick. What about that bothers you so much?

      • rgbact says:

        again, I’m talking political reality, not policy. I said already that I support the exchanges. In fact I would expand them to include everyone on Medicare. But politics is different. You can say that we need young healthy people to pay…..but that still means they will get a new bill they didn’t have before. The IRS says 6.5M people paid the mandate tax last year. So every new ACA enrollee is likely being forced into it…..which isn’t great politics

  3. R. Jenrette says:

    The people who don’t want health insurance or at least don’t want to pay for it are freeloaders. They are counting on the rest of us to pay for their care if they have a medical emergency.
    That’s why the mandate was put into the health plan by the Republicans and other conservatives who wrote the original proposal, the one that Gov. Romney put into place.

    Mike – you forgot to add the internet to programs the government has had a big hand in creating. I think Americans have forgotten that one too.

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