The chart of 2016

So, I already mentioned the decline in turnout, but this image (which has been super-widely shared from Reddit and is easily falsifiable, so I’m just going to assume it’s correct) is really compelling:

I made a chart showing the popular vote turnout in 2008, 2012 and 2016. Hillary didn't lose because the Republicans grew their base; she lost because the Democrats didn't come out to vote. [OC]

Wow.  Yes, Obama is a popular and charismatic figure, but that sure is a lot of Democrats (even from the much less popular 2012) who simply did not show up for Clinton.  Counter-factual are so damn tough, but its not unreasonable to really wonder how Bernie would have fared.  Or Biden.  Anyway, I think this differential turnout (now, of course, this doesn’t have any third party votes), has to be considered an important part of understanding the 2016 election.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

2 Responses to The chart of 2016

  1. pino says:

    Anyway, I think this differential turnout (now, of course, this doesn’t have any third party votes), has to be considered an important part of understanding the 2016 election.

    I have not mentioned that I broadly support your distaste for Trump, his policies, his methods and his unworthiness. I have been Never Trump from the jump. Truly The World’s Worst Candidate in the World.

    But you have correctly pointed out that this isn’t a Whiteout. I have to check, but it looks like R voters are actually DOWN this year. Rather than republican voters carrying Trump, Democrat voters sunk HRC.

  2. R. Jenrette says:

    The effects of the FBI’s interventions should not be underestimated. While pondering this, one might also consider the large number of people killed by FBI agents and not one has been found to have done anything wrong. FBI – 100% innocent? Defies statistics.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: