A tale of two polls
November 6, 2016 1 Comment
Final ABC/Washington Post poll out today has HRC up 5. Seems about right to me. Of course, only one poll, but, sometimes that one poll makes sense and sometimes it doesn’t. For example, check out the vote by race/ethnicity:
Based on what we know about Hispanic voters and Donald Trump, that seems eminently reasonable. Maybe 18% is a little low for Trump, but I doubt by much. In contrast, the infamous LA Times poll shows why it’s infamous. Here’s their latest estimate for the Hispanic vote.
HRC +=3.4%. That’s just laughable. They really need to rethink how they are doing their poll.
Or, how about age groups. Young people have been a very Democratic group. ABC’s latest:
13 point gap among 18-39. Seems about right. LA Times gives Trump +2.4 among 18-34. Again, seriously??!
So, one answer is just average the polls, right? But I would argue that averaging in the LA Times poll is ultimately averaging in garbage with other polls that are actually telling us something.
On a side note, Pollyvote argues that the “who do you think will win” question is actually a very valuable and under-used measure. Here, HRC is killing it in the LA times poll.