A tale of two polls

Final ABC/Washington Post poll out today has HRC up 5.  Seems about right to me.  Of course, only one poll, but, sometimes that one poll makes sense and sometimes it doesn’t.  For example, check out the vote by race/ethnicity:

abc1

Based on what we know about Hispanic voters and Donald Trump, that seems eminently reasonable.  Maybe 18% is a little low for Trump, but I doubt by much.  In contrast, the infamous LA Times poll shows why it’s infamous.  Here’s their latest estimate for the Hispanic vote.

la1

HRC +=3.4%.  That’s just laughable.  They really need to rethink how they are doing their poll.

Or, how about age groups.  Young people have been a very Democratic group.  ABC’s latest:

abc2

13 point gap among 18-39.  Seems about right.  LA Times gives Trump +2.4 among 18-34.  Again, seriously??!

la2

So, one answer is just average the polls, right?  But I would argue that averaging in the LA Times poll is ultimately averaging in garbage with other polls that are actually telling us something.

On a side note, Pollyvote argues that the “who do you think will win” question is actually a very valuable and under-used measure.  Here, HRC is killing it in the LA times poll.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

One Response to A tale of two polls

  1. Mika says:

    Here

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2016/11/03/using-citizen-forecasts-we-predict-that-with-362-electoral-votes-hillary-clinton-will-be-the-next-president/

    Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier, and Michael S. Lewis-Beck write about their citizen forecast model. For one reason or another I like to read Lewis-Beck’s academic articles, there might something in their style that I like, I dunno.

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