Today’s reasons for calm
November 5, 2016 5 Comments
1) There’s good reason to believe that many polls are substantially under-estimating Hispanic voter. See these two tweets from Adrian Gray. I would suggest that with the huge variance noted in the second tweet, rather than the average, the right estimate for Hispanics is closer to the high end of +HRC. Also, common sense and lived experience should tell us that Trump will substantially under-perform Romney with Hispanic voters. I would argue that any poll that suggests otherwise is probably wrong.
2a) Nate Silver is smart and good with stats, but he’s not God. It’s entirely possible his model is over-estimating Trump’s chances. For example, Drew Linzer is smart and good with stats, and his model currently gives HRC 90% chance of winning and shows her winning Nevada and Florida (Silver currently has these just barely tipping Trump). Honestly, my instinct is to take what I find on Kos with almost as much skepticism as what I see on Fox and I question Linzer’s judgment in choosing to ally with them, but his Votamatic pre-dates the Kos association and, more importantly, there’s an argument to be made that he’s more accurate than Silver.
2b) I was not actually familiar with Pollyvote till Linzer tweeted it, but I checked it out last night and their intriguing methodology (averaging across a variety of types of data/information on the election) has proven remarkably accurate in the past 3 elections. Yeah, only 3 elections, but less than 1% off in national two-party vote each time. They give HRC a solid lead.
3) Trump has a tough road without Nevada and all indications are that Democrats have built a near-insurmountable lead in early voting. This also relates to point 1. Poll averages show Nevada a toss-up, but that may be due to systematically under-estimating Hispanic voting.
So, HRC a sure thing? Nope. But I’d suggest well better than the 65% or so she’s doing at 538.