Even Trump’s best polls are bad for Trump

Poor Donald Trump.  It’s gotten to the point where he’s tweeting about polls where he down “only” 4 points.  And, of course, that’s easily his best national poll.

So, the Post took a deeper dive into this poll and found that even in this, the least unfavorable recent poll for Trump, things do not look good at all:

With the help of our in-house pollster Scott Clement, I studied the 14 percent of registered voters who support neither Clinton nor Trump in the four-way poll test. [emphases in original] This includes the 6 percent for Gary Johnson and the 3 percent for Jill Stein but also the 3 percent who volunteered to our callers that they are supporting none of the four and the 2 percent who said they have not decided yet.

Among this sub-group, 71 percent are “strongly unfavorable” to Trump versus 46 percent who say the same of Clinton. He comes fairly close to her on honesty (83 percent say Trump is not honest and trustworthy, compared to 78 percent who say the same for Clinton) and on who is best for the economy (35 percent say Trump and 32 percent say Clinton). But there is a big chasm on two questions that tend to be better predictors of vote choice: 77 percent say Trump is not qualified to be president, compared to 44 percent who say Clinton is not. And 86 percent say Trump lacks the temperament to be president, compared to 42 percent who say the same of Clinton…

This 14 percent is crucial because nearly everyone else can no longer be persuaded: 88 percent of Trump supporters and 89 percent of Clinton backers said they will “definitely” support their current preference. More than 1.4 million ballots have already been cast, and a superior Democratic ground game is locking in her advantage.

And again, the polling average is more like 7 points behind for Trump.  It really is a question now of just how much he loses by.  As for Wikileaks, if they actually had anything decent, they surely would have used it by now.  I’m sure we’ll be getting plenty more weak tea from them before the election.


About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

One Response to Even Trump’s best polls are bad for Trump

  1. R. Jenrette says:

    As for Wikileaks it doesn’t much matter what they reveal as Trump and friends will spin off of it and their supporters will believe his version. Take the State Dept. and FBI furor where supposedly a quid pro quo deal was with one wanting office space and the other wanting reclassification of an email. Turns out there was no quid pro quo deal and maybe one FBI agent was on both sides of it. FBI is investigating but both the FBI and the State Dept. have formally denied the deal.
    Meanwhile Trump and friend are merrily spreading misinformation to divert attention from his sexual assault talk and alleged actions.

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