What I don’t believe even in a poll Clinton is leading by 7

Hillary Clinton is up +7 in the latest 4-way poll with Trump.  That’s a very good result and a clear improvement for her compared to other recent Fox polls.  It’s results like this that have poll aggregating sites pushing 90% chance for her winning the election.  Here’s the Pollster summary of the latest Fox poll.  polls

In this poll, and a number of other polls I’ve seen (though far from all), Hillary is doing essentially no better among Democrats (here she’s at 81%) than Trump is doing among Republicans (80%).  Her sizable margin stems from the fact that there are more likely Democratic voters.  That said, come election day, I will be shocked if Hillary’s performance among Democratic identifiers/leaners is no better than Trump’s performance among Republicans.

I don’t really have any great data to back me up on this other than to say that the winning candidate almost always performs better with their own partisans than does the losing candidate.  I would be really surprised if that pattern does not hold this time.

This particular fact makes me think polls like Fox may actually be under-stating Clinton’s margin.  But, we’ll see and I’ll surely come back to this point November 9.

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About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

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