The future of the parties

Okay, this is just one poll, but there’s nothing to suggest it’s an outlier. Greg Sargent:

And here is what the new poll finds in terms of which party young voters are now identifying with:

In the new survey, half of those under 35 say they identify with or lean toward the Democrats; just 20% identify with or lean toward the Republicans. Seventeen percent are independents, and another 12% either identify with another party or don’t know.[emphasis by Sargent]

One in five young voters identifies with the GOP. Now, it should be pointed out that if this 20 percent number is accurate, it may be somewhat misleading to blame it on Trump alone. The Republican Party’s failure to evolve on gay rights, immigration, and other issues was already alienating young people, as even the RNC’s own autopsy into what went wrong in 2012 conceded.

Wow.  Now, a good part of that is that younger Americans are significantly more likely to be non-white, but the non-whitening of America is an ongoing fact.  And, of course, younger persons vote at lower rates, so the real impact of this will be years down the road.  But absent major shocks to the political system bringing about a realignment Republicans are looking at becoming a serious minority party.  And, if we are, in fact, at the beginning of a realignment, it certainly does not appear to be one that favors the Republican party.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State

7 Responses to The future of the parties

  1. R. Jenrette says:

    I’ve been wondering how a Conservative party can ever run as the party of change. The GOP is going to have to come up with a more descriptive name for their party to inspire today’s voters who mostly seem to want change,
    Perhaps they could run a fund raising contest to find the right name

  2. rgbact says:

    Despite decades long evidence that younger voters vote more Democrat than older ones……it looks like smart liberals still aren’t admitting that it might be possible to actually get more conservative as you age. ,Here comes the “GOP is dying” mantra……thats led Democrats to 2 landslide losses in last 3 elections..Always entertaining.

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