The Trump comeback to come?

This tweet on FB got a lot of attention:

Sure, this may happen, but it is far from a given.  Yes, Trump has a lot of room to pick up R identifiers, but I would not be surprised if there’s not around at least 20% of Republicans who truly loathe him, and absent any evidence he can actually win, will stay away.  In the latest Fox Poll– in which Trump is getting hammered– 28% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of him.  Sure, many of those may vote for him anyway, but, again, if Trump does not provide those people evidence he can win, why should they vote for him.  In essence, you could argue that Trump needs to close the gap in the polls to win more Republicans over to him, but he cannot close the gap in the polls without winning over more Republicans.  Not a sure thing, of course, but a plausible dynamic.

The caveat on Nyhan’s tweet also gets a lot of pushback “absent further campaign malpractice.”  Honestly, it seems far more likely that we’ll see further horrible campaigning than that Trump will all-of-a-sudden become a normal Mitt Romney type candidate.  At this point we have seen evidence after evidence that this is just who Trump is.

Will I be surprised if the current large gap in the polls shrinks?  Not at all.  Nor, though, do I think it is an inevitability as many are now claiming.

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