Nobody likes Trump

Okay, not nobody, but he sure is unpopular in the latest polls.  He’s rarely climbing above the high 30’s in support.  First, Greg Sargent on the lastest WP/ABC poll:

Americans hate their two leading choices for president, which means we’re headed for a general election bloodbath of negativity that will lead Americans to hate politics even more! Why are the two parties foisting such awful, despised figures upon the poor voters, who just want leaders they can feel good about?

At least, this is the lament we regularly hear. But it isn’t that simple. In reality, for now, at least, there’s no real equivalence between the negative views of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. While Clinton certainly has problems in this regard, Trump fares far, far worse. [emphases mine]

The new Washington Post/ABC News poll illustrates this neatly. It finds that Donald Trump’s unfavorable numbers have climbed to a new high: 70 percent of Americans have an unfavorable impression of Trump, versus only 29 percent (fewer than one-third!) who have a favorable impression. Clinton’s negatives, too, have hit a new high of 55 percent.

But look at Trump’s numbers among various voter groups. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 73 percent of moderates; 77 percent of women; 89 percent of Hispanics; 88 percent of nonwhites; 75 percent of voters under 40; 59 percent of whites; 71 percent of white college graduates, 67 percent of white women, and even 52 percent of white men and 53 percent of non-college whites…

But she does better among some of her core groups than Trump does among his. Trump is underwater among many constituencies that should be a natural part of his coalition (whites overall, white women of both the college and non-college variety, blue collar whites). But Clinton actually does comparatively well among some of her key constituencies. She’s viewed favorably among women by 51-47, among Hispanics by 64-34, and among nonwhites by 66-32. While she is viewed unfavorably by 59 percent of white college grads, which is bad, Trump fares worse, at 71 percent. And while Trump is in a deep hole among moderates, Clinton is tied among them at 49-49.

And John McCormick on the Bloomberg poll that has Clinton up by 12 (oh, if only all the polls were showing that):

Other troubling findings for Trump in poll include how 63 percent of women say they could never vote for him. “If you can never get the vote of two in three women, who are a majority of voters, that is something that has to change for Trump to emerge victorious,” Selzer said.

Similar proportions of those younger than 35 and those with incomes of less than $50,000 also say they could never support him.

These are just two polls.  And this is just a snapshot in time.  But it does seem more than fair to conclude that despite Hillary Clinton’s negatives, Trump is much more disliked and really has quite an uphill struggle if he is going to overtake Clinton in the polls.

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About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

3 Responses to Nobody likes Trump

  1. Jon K says:

    Do you think that there is any possibility we might see something similar to the Bradley Effect where people are reluctant to admit support for Trump yet within the privacy of the voting booth will vote for him?

  2. ohwilleke says:

    There are news reports strongly suggesting that Trump bribed state officials in at least a couple of state to shut down investigations of Trump U. Suppose that, after he is named the GOP nominee at the national convention in Cleveland, a grand jury or two indicts him and he is arrested and prosecuted (presumably he finds a way to be able to afford to be out on bond).

    Does that create a constitutional crisis?

    Does it matter if the prosecution is state v. federal? Would it be a “dirty trick” for the Justice Department which routinely prosecutes corruption by state officials to bring such a suit if it had probably cause?

    Does it matter if the trial is set – prior to the election, after the election but before inauguration day, or after inauguration day?

    If he was elected while the case was pending, would it be an impeachable offense if he didn’t resign? (The constitutional threshold of “high crimes and misdemeanors” isn’t a paragon of clarity re when they must take place, but there is at least an implication that it must take place during office, but also a fair reading that would say during an official campaign for office, at a minimum, there may be some lesser office impeachment precedents at the state or federal level on that issue.)

    Would election give rise to any kind of Presidential immunity or a right to have the action stayed pending the end of his Presidency? (Given Nixon and Clinton, I’d guess that the answer is no, but that a trial judge might allow it anyway to avoid a crisis.)

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