On Wisconsin

A little late, but a couple good things I read today:

I loved this characterization from Nicholas Confessore:

Gravity exists

It can sometimes seem as though Donald J. Trump defies the laws of political physics — that his provocations, prevarications and flip-flops simply slough off his branded baseball cap. But Wisconsin, a state with highly engaged voters and a powerful talk-radio establishment that turned sharply against the Republican, showed that some actions do generate reactions. After Mr. Trump’s clumsy expressions of solidarity with opponents of abortion — suggesting at one point that there should be “some form of punishment” for women who have abortions — he won just a third of self-identified evangelical Christians.

Right.  As I’ve mentioned before, I think given how much Trump has surprised us by doing things we didn’t think presidential candidates could do and still thrive, it is nice to be reminded that he’s not a teflon unicorn, free from all normal understandings of politics.

Also, I really liked Nate Silver’s hedge on Wisconsin.  What does it mean?  We really can’t say yet:

That does it for us tonight, folks — I’m going to sleep on tonight’s Republican results in Wisconsin before having anything too grandiose to say about them. It’s a weird case where there might be a danger either of underreacting (“it’s just one state!”) or of overreacting (“this changes everything!”). Neither of those reactions quite feels appropriate until we see how the candidates, polls, delegates and media behave in the coming days.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

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