Why I am so confident that Hillary Clinton will win in NC tomorrow

Sure, she’s killing it in the polling.  But she was killing it in the Michigan polling, too.  (Though, I think the awfullness of the Michigan polling will ultimately prove to be very much an outlier).  The reason is that so far the state results have been remarkably predictable based on state demographics.  Great recent post from Alan Abramowitz which shows that 90% of the variance (90%!!!) in Hillary Clinton’s vote share by state can be explained by two variables– percentage non-white in the state and whether that state is in the South.  This model nails it for Michigan and has been super-close almost everywhere.  Here’s the scatterplot that shows just how predictive this model is:

And the model’s predictions for tomorrow.  I’d actually put more stock in these than in the polling (not that there’s much divergence that I know of):

And Abramowitz’s caveats:

These predictions assume that the effects of race and region on the outcomes of future Democratic primaries will be the same as their effects in the 12 states used in this analysis. That assumption may or may not turn out to be correct. In addition, the estimates of the nonwhite share of the electorate clearly are subject to error. On average, the nonwhite share of the Democratic electorate increased by about six percentage points between 2008 and 2016 in the 12 states used in this analysis. However the change ranged from -1 point in Virginia to +24 points in Mississippi.

Leaving these important caveats aside, our results suggest that Bernie Sanders is likely to present a strong challenge to Hillary Clinton in the remaining Democratic primaries. Clinton has had a big advantage in the nomination race thus far because so many of the contests have been in the South. After next Tuesday, however, there will be no more primaries in the South. Based on the results presented here, she will be favored over Sanders only in non-southern states in which the nonwhite share of the Democratic primary electorate is at least 40 percent. The key question may be whether the huge delegate lead she has built up by winning southern primaries by landslide margins will be enough to sustain her through the rest of the primary season.

My take: yes, the huge delegate lead will be enough to sustain her (I could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure I’ve seen analyses at 538 strongly suggesting as much).

Photo of the day

From an In Focus scenes of Spring gallery.

Visitors ride a boat in the Chidorigafuchi moat, as they enjoy fully bloomed cherry blossoms, during spring in Tokyo.

Reuters/Issei Kato

The middle

So, this Tom Toles cartoon is from way book in 2010, but I recently came across it.  So appropriate for politics today.  Especially with Republican’s ever right-ward movement.  Sometimes the middle really does make sense, but I hate the fallacy that the middle is good just because it’s the middle.


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