Why falling polls still show that Hillary will win the nomination

Surely you’ve seen how Bernie is moving up on Hillary in the polls.  And it’s certainly real– plenty of polls, plenty of movement.  That said, the Post’s Philip Bump compares the movement away from Hillary and toward Bernie among key subgroups.  This chart, to me, says why Hillary is still the heavy favorite:

As you can see, Hillary’s advantage over Sanders has declined (or gone to a disadvantage) in every sub-group but one– non-white voters.  And, among those voters, Hillary is as strong, if not stronger, than ever.  If Bernie is to have any chance at capturing the nomination, that bottom-right quadrant simply has to look different.  Overall, non-white voters are simply a huge proportion of the Democratic primary electorate.  One of the things we are seeing right now is a quirk of timing in that Iowa and NH have two of the whitest of all Democratic primary electorates.

Now, it’s certainly possible that Bernie wins both Iowa and NH and it changes everything!  But given Bernie’s dramatic improvement in recent months in all groups except non-white voters, I do doubt that him winning those states is going to change this dynamic.

The Republican case against Trump

This NYT Op-Ed by long-time Republican operative Pete Wehner is just too good to not quote extensively:

Beginning with Ronald Reagan, I have voted Republican in every presidential election since I first became eligible to vote in 1980. I worked in the Reagan and George H. W. Bush administrations and in the White House for George W. Bush as a speechwriter and adviser. I have also worked for Republican presidential campaigns, although not this time around.

Despite this history, and in important ways because of it, I will not vote for Donald Trump if he wins the Republican nomination…

There are many reasons to abstain from voting for Mr. Trump if he is nominated, starting with the fact that he would be the most unqualified president in American history. Every one of our 44 presidents has had either government or military experience before being sworn in. Mr. Trump, a real estate mogul and former reality-television star, hasn’t served a day in public office or the armed forces.

During the course of this campaign he has repeatedly revealed his ignorance on basic matters of national interest — the three ways the United States is capable of firing nuclear weapons (by land, sea and air), the difference between the Quds Force in Iran and the Kurds to their west, North Korea’s nuclear tests, the causes of autism, the effects of his tax plan on the deficit and much besides.

Mr. Trump has no desire to acquaint himself with most issues, let alone master them…

It is little surprise, then, that many of Mr. Trump’s most celebrated pronouncements and promises — to quickly and “humanely” expel 11 million illegal immigrants, to force Mexico to pay for the wall he will build on our southern border, to defeat the Islamic State “very quickly” while as a bonus taking its oil, to bar Muslims from immigrating to the United States — are nativistic pipe dreams and public relations stunts.

Even more disqualifying is Mr. Trump’s temperament. He is erratic, inconsistent and unprincipled. He possesses a streak of crudity and cruelty that manifested itself in how he physically mocked a Times journalist with a disability, ridiculed Senator John McCain for being a P.O.W., made a reference to “blood” intended to degrade a female journalist and compared one of his opponents to a child molester.

Not that Wehner will deter all those authoritarians, but it is a nice, succinct statement of Trump’s utter lack of proper qualifications to serve as president.

%d bloggers like this: