Who’s winning the GOP race? (Rubio)

Jennifer Victor with a really nice Mischiefs of Faction post looking at the different metrics with which to approach this question.  She suggests (And I strongly agree) that prediction markets are probably the best predictor at this point.  And what do we see there?

Market Trading Price GOP primary candidates (10/29/2015)

That looks about right to me.  It’s funny, though, Rubio has everything you need to win the nomination except strong popular support, good fundraising, and endorsements (as her other charts show).  But if you follow the logic (and the political science) of nominations, he just seems to be the most obvious choice and I think that is what these markets reflect.  I’d also suggest a few of these guys are way over-valued (yes, Huckabee at anything over 0.001% is over-valued).  Given how things have gone recently, it’s sure a good time to short Jeb.  I was trying to come up with a sports analogy for Rubio for my father-in-law and I struggled, but ended up with a team that’s stockpiled a bunch of high draft picks.  Not all that good, but Rubio seems to have all the qualities that make him the strongest contender, except for current polling, money, endorsements, etc., but it is quite easy to imagine a scenario where he makes rapid progress in all of these.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

7 Responses to Who’s winning the GOP race? (Rubio)

  1. r. jenrette says:

    Do the Koch brothers play nice with Rubio’s backers? They are formidable opponents if they decide om a different candidate. It won’t be Kasich as he expanded Medicaid and brought the AFA to his state.
    What’s Scott Walker doing these days?

    • Jon K says:

      koch don’t have as much influence as you might think. yes they throw a lot of money around, but a lot of it is going to people that already agree with them. they fire up the grass roots and get them motivated, but aside from that all they do is irritate democrats and serve as a target for attack. they actually don’t mind being seen as the wizard of oz because it tickles their egos and it keeps opponents angry at them instead of elected officials. i

      • Jon K says:

        also a lot of koch money is really counter productive as it goes to tea-party and heritage-action type groups. those groups are the ones who go after republicans who don’t tow the line (eg lugar, cantor) and hurt the republicans as much as they help them

    • rgbact says:

      I don’t recall the Koch’s giving big to SuperPacs before anyway. They seem to play more in independent groups that support their agenda, which isn’t necessarily Republican.

      Billioinare Paul Singer just joined the Rubio camp though. Shelson Adelson is also leaning toward him. Those are big GOP campaign donors. Singer was for Romney in 2012, while I believe Adelson was for Gingrich. Romney’s SuperPAC, which was able to decimate Gingrich with negative ads in Iowa, which hopefully Rubio’s can do to Carson/Trump.

  2. Jon K says:

    So i am visiting with my parents and my sister’s family (two young kids 5 and 2). When I got a chance to watch something other than Thomas the tank engine I happened to see Bob Beckel on CNN smerconish program. They are all very sure the ticket will end up with Rubio in the 1st spot and Kasich in the second.

    That strikes me as backwards. Kasich has done more in his career than 3 rubios. I don’t think it would work as a ploy to make Rubio seem less extreme.

    I think if the republicans really believe that they didn’t win with McCain or Romney because they “weren’t conservative enough” then they should be confident enough to run as far to the right as possible. Maybe Rubio & Cruz or Rubio & Huckabee. We could really go nuts and see if Sharon Angle, Joe the Plumber, Todd aiken, or “I’m not a witch lady” is available. They all could do at least as well as Ben Carson or Donald Trump.

    I am to the point that I hope the republicans nominate the most unelectable candidate possible. The only thing that can save the party is a little creative destruction. I want them to lose so badly they have no choice but to rejoin the same reality as everyone else.

  3. r. jenrette says:

    Jon, maybe Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas could be the GOP nominee’s running mate and fulfill your hopes..

    • Jon K says:

      yes he would do. the thing that makes me most angry with republicans (the only political party i have voted for, volunteered for, and given money to) is this delusion that we can cut taxes and raise revenue. it would work if we had taxes so high that they really disincentive earning or investing money. our taxes arent even close to those levels. i really want balanced budgets but if nobody is interested in being responsible I would rather spend money on social programs that help people than give it to rich people.

      Someday our country will have to pay its bills. Social security and medicare entitlements have to be dealt with. The idea of a trust fund is a fantasy. The government can’t have an asset in one hand and a liability in the other.

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