A little perspective

I didn’t realize that there were media types freaking out about how troubled Hillary’s campaign is.  Seriously?!  That’s why I try and largely ignore the talking heads.  Especially at this point in a campaign.  And as much as I have fantasies of Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination, I know that’s what they are: fantasies.  Anyway, Seth Masket does a nice job throwing some cold water on the various hyperventilation about Clinton’s troubles and Trump’s ascendancy.  And I love the post’s title: “What Hillary Clinton Should Learn From Donald Trump: Nothing.”

Let’s all take a breath. If you were to take all the declared candidates for president right now and assign them a probability that they will be the 45th president of the United States (multiplying their chances of winning their party’s nomination by their chances of winning the general election should they be nominated), Hillary Clinton would have to be at the top of that list, and Donald Trump would have to be right near the bottom. To restate: Hillary Clinton is more likely to become president than anyone else currently running. That may well change. Once the Republicans have converged around a nominee, that person will likely have a similar probability of winning to Clinton’s, and may even surpass hers. But right now, if you had to be any presidential candidate, she’s the one to be…

2. Everything we know about the last four decades of presidential nominations suggests that insider support is the key. Clinton has that. Sanders doesn’t. [emphases mine] That doesn’t mean Sanders can’t win a caucus or primary here and there — he very well might. But ultimately Clinton has all the right resources for winning her party’s nomination. For the same reason, Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win his party’s nomination, which is more likely to go to Bush, Rubio, or Walker.
3. Clinton remains highly popular within her party. While Trump is currently polling first among Republican candidates, a substantial portion of Republicans claim they could never support him. Right now, that portion of the party is split among 16 other candidates, so he looks comparatively good. But once that field winnows, it crushes him.

We can certainly expect more of this kind of coverage in the months to come. After all, just saying “Clinton is the favorite for the nomination” every day is boring, and no one wants to read or write that. But the idea that Clinton should massively retool a campaign that is actually winning is silly.

Oh, and I still don’t know what “authenticity” is or how a candidate could get it by completely changing her beliefs and demeanor. But the fact that Donald Trump is perceived as having it should tell you all you need to know about it.

Yep.  Barring major unforeseen events Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee.  And as much as I’d love the Republican nominee to be Trump, his strategic situation will be dramatically different when facing just a few, rather than 16 other, candidates.  Until then, I’m going to enjoy the Trump ride.  And he can certainly has the potential to cause genuine harm to the Republican brand and possibly pull other candidates even further to the right than they want to be be for the general.

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