A presidential race poll that actually matters

Yougov went out and polled Republican party elites and activists– i.e., the one’s who are really key in determining a party’s nominee.  Not suprisingly, among this group, Trump is not in the lead (though, I would still say disturbingly high to be in third).

2015-07-22-1437597315-824431-ActivistFirstSecondChoice.png

So, there’s some people in here with no chance, i.e., Trump, Carson, near the top, but the next graph is also quite illuminating.  We know that primary voters can be fairly strategic and not just take into account their most preferred candidate, but consider who actually has a chance at winning the nomination and the general.  Of course, that can be self-fulfilling.  When we look at this, we see a different story:

2015-07-22-1437597362-6177653-PrimaryVsGEViability.png

I would say these people who think Carson has a chance are delusional, but what I think is most notable is that the top 3 are in a class by themselves, and it’s probably fair to say the eventual nominee will very likely come from among these three.  So, we’re still a long way out before anybody starts voting– and national polls for primaries can be problematic– but I do think this poll is really telling us some useful things.  Expect it to be ignored by most media.

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About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

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