Photo of the day

From the Telegraph’s week in pictures (DJC was complaining about my photos today, this is not quite surfing, but hopefully he’ll approve):

The United States' Regina Jaquess skis during the slalom portion of the women's overall water ski competition

The United States’ Regina Jaquess performs during the slalom heats of the women’s water ski competition at the Pan Am Games in Toronto, CanadaPicture: Gregory Bull/AP

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Understanding Trump

Not all that different from some other things I’ve posted, but I love how Seth Masket explained the Trump phenomenon for the Canadian news audience:

“There is a segment of the population that is always angry, at least when there’s a Democrat in the White House. They constantly feel that their government doesn’t represent them and that the country that they love and knew growing up is being taken away from them,” Masket said. “They will rally when someone says the sort of things that Trump is saying. It doesn’t take a particularly deft genius to tap into that.”

And I love this “I’m touching Donald Trump!!” photo with the article:

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Spencer Platt/Getty Images

A presidential race poll that actually matters

Yougov went out and polled Republican party elites and activists– i.e., the one’s who are really key in determining a party’s nominee.  Not suprisingly, among this group, Trump is not in the lead (though, I would still say disturbingly high to be in third).

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So, there’s some people in here with no chance, i.e., Trump, Carson, near the top, but the next graph is also quite illuminating.  We know that primary voters can be fairly strategic and not just take into account their most preferred candidate, but consider who actually has a chance at winning the nomination and the general.  Of course, that can be self-fulfilling.  When we look at this, we see a different story:

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I would say these people who think Carson has a chance are delusional, but what I think is most notable is that the top 3 are in a class by themselves, and it’s probably fair to say the eventual nominee will very likely come from among these three.  So, we’re still a long way out before anybody starts voting– and national polls for primaries can be problematic– but I do think this poll is really telling us some useful things.  Expect it to be ignored by most media.

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