Photo of the day

Humans first set on the moon 46 years ago today.  Great In Focus gallery:
  After liftoff from the Moon, the lunar module approaches CSM for docking, with earthrise in background.



So, my Slovakian readers want to know what I think of Donald Trump’s chances for winning the Republican nomination and the general.  Since I took five minutes to write it up for Slovakian news, I might as well share it here, too.  Here’e the question I was answering:

How would you evaluate Donald Trump’s chances of becoming GOP’s presidential nominee, eventually the American President? Do you see any presidential path for him, or he will probably stay very visible and loud candidate, but at the end still just sort of a fringe candidate?

Donald Trump’s chances of becoming the Republican nominee are extremely close to 0.  He will probably stay visible and loud– and right now he is clearly representing a segment of the Republican electorate that feel he is making their message heard– but ultimately he has almost no chance to win the Republican nomination.  Political Science scholarship has increasingly shown that winning the nomination takes substantial support from party “insiders” (elected politicians, major donors and fundraisers, etc.).  Trump has virtually no support from party Insiders.  It would be unprecedented for a candidate to win a nomination of one of the two major parties under these circumstances.  Sure, he is rich, but the evidence is also clear that it takes a lot more than simply having a lot of money.  Any chances he had of building more support from party elites (and even ordinary voters) were most likely lost for good with his extremely ill-considered comments regarding John McCain this weekend.

Candidates like Trump make election-watching fun and even reveal important facts about the nature of the political times, but what they don’t do is win elections.
And for blog purposes I’ll add, for Democrats, what a gift.  There’s a reason that every major Republican is doing all they can to try and distance Trump from the Republican party.  What a blemish to the brand.  Alas, the polls are not helping them.  Now, the big question is just how much impact Trump’s stupid, stupid, stupid (and offensive) comments about McCain will have among GOP voters, who are exactly those most likely to take offense at disrespecting the military.
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