Oh no, Ebola!

Nice post from my colleague Mike Cobb on how we way over-estimate the risks of things that are really horrible, e.g, contracting Ebola, dying in a plane crash:

In a CNN poll from September, 27 percent of respondents said they were “concerned” or “very concerned” that they or someone in their family would get Ebola. Translated into actual numbers, roughly 65 million American adults are worried about getting Ebola.

As of now, just one verified case of Ebola has been documented in the United States, and unless the extremely improbable happens, Ebola will not spread far or easily in the U.S. There are multiple reasons why this is the case, primarily because our health care system is better equipped to handle outbreaks of infectious diseases.

If the chances of anyone in the U.S. contracting Ebola are so minuscule, why do so many Americans worry about it? Is the news media fanning the flames? I think there is something to that, giving the blaring headlines about its appearance in the U.S.

If the chances of anyone in the U.S. contracting Ebola are so minuscule, why do so many Americans worry about it? Is the news media fanning the flames? I think there is something to that, giving the blaring headlines about its appearance in the U.S.

But worry about Ebola also fits a well-documented pattern where people worry more about things perceived as “dreadful, even if they are improbable.” Americans are unfamiliar with Ebola, so that adds to the diseases dreadfulness. The graph below – Source: Cutter S.L. 1993. “Living with risk – the geography of technological hazards – illustrates this relationship by plotting risk perceptions based on their familiarity and dreadfulness.

As an example, car related deaths have surpassed 30,000 per year for decades. Yet, car travel is so familiar and routine, that few adults fear driving. Meanwhile, air travel is seen as riskier even though it is safer than ever “In the last five years, the death risk for passengers in the United States has been one in 45 million flights,” according to one recent study.

For what it’s worth, I worry way more about a car accident than Ebola.  Though I cannot help myself for worrying a bit more than I know I should when I get on an airplane.  It’s all that damn illusion of control of car versus airplane.  Anyway, it is sad, but not at all surprising to see politicians whipping up further needless fears of Ebola.

Photo of the day

From a Telegraph photos of the day gallery:

A breaching humpback whale leaps out of the water off the coast of Port St. Johns, South AfricaPicture: Steven Benjamin / Barcroft Media

Politics doesn’t have to be biased!

I gave a talk at an NCSU Scholars forum last week on the upcoming midterm elections.  I talked some about gerrymandering, but mostly about how the varying demographics of the electorate in midterm vs. presidential years have a big impact on the outcome.  I talked about the white vs. non-white vote, and given my audience, a lot about the relationship between age and turnout.  (You can see my slides here).

The Scholars office shared feedback with me yesterday (I’ll confess, it generally made me feel warm and fuzzy, but who knows what comments they didn’t share), but a couple of comments particularly struck me:

“I loved Dr. Greene’s willingness to address all questions and he truly is knowledgeable about all the information. I like how regardless of his own views, he states it how it is based on the information available.”

“I was surprised at the lack of extreme bias. I gained interesting knowledge regarding elections without feeling swayed into either direction. I truly enjoyed being involved in a relatively unbiased political discussion, especially in such a politically polarizing time.”

There you go haters– proof I’m not “biased”!  Seriously, though, it is actually kind of sad that students expect there to be bias in a lecture about politics and are surprised to find otherwise.