Useless polling?

Okay, Hillary has a huge lead going into 2016 and the polls confirm this.  Slate:

The Washington Post and ABC News this morning bring us an early look at the leader board for the 2016 presidential nominations. The fact that Hillary Clinton is the front-runner for the Democrats will surprise absolutely no one—but the sheer size of her lead is something to behold: 61 points.

The former secretary of state holds a staggering 6 to 1 lead over her nearest rival, Joe Biden, in the survey. To put that in perspective, as the Fix helpfully does, that makes Clinton the “single biggest frontrunner for a Democratic presidential nomination in the history of the poll.” Her 73-12 lead over Biden will only add another data point to the Beltway consensus that the nomination is Clinton’s to lose—even if few people know how fleeting an early primary lead can be like Hillary. (The same WaPo/ABC polling outfit found Clinton with a 22-point lead in early primary polling back in 2006, and we all know how that turned out.)

Hillary does have a huge advantage, but the fact that she’s up in the polls is the least of it.  Hans Noel, co-author of The Party Decides, put it great in his FB status:

Hillary Clinton now has a historically massive lead in something that has historically not mattered that much.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State

3 Responses to Useless polling?

  1. John F. says:

    It’s actually disadvantageous this far out because it gives the republicans and all their corporate money a singular striking point. Unfortunately for the unimaginative republicans, the echo chamber that they live in will not serve them well; they’ll use the invented and utterly toothles Benghazi “scandal” to go after Hillary, they won’t get anywhere and they’ll waste lots of time and money before they realize it isn’t working.

    I think some of them realize this as they spot test talking points about Bill Clinton being a part of the dems “war on women,” which makes me lol.

  2. sdresser32 says:

    I think, beyond just the fact that it’s a long way out, EVENTS are turning against Hillary already. Hillary has already lost the nomination once to a younger, more energetic, and more liberal Democrat. Last time it was the war in Iraq that did her in, this time it will be income inequality. Hillary, as probably the parties furthest right major candidate, a former Senator from New York (city), very close to Wall Street, has major vulnerabilities in a contested primary.

    On the other hand, you have Elizabeth Warren, who has been the biggest nemesis Wall Street has, a spectacular political talent, and more liberal for the primary.

    Play that against the fact that income inequality is being called the “defining issue of out time”, and fully 60% of Americans think that wealth should be more evenly distributed in this country.

    I’m really starting to think the EXACT same thing as last time is about to happen again!

  3. rgb says:

    Ahh, media and their idiotic early presidential polls. Basically a Name ID contest. There’s no way she doesn’t get a serious challenge, given she’s nearly 70 and the Democratic base is the youngest its ever been. Oh,and her unlikability.

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