The Public’s prediction

More Americans think Obama will win than Romney. Historically, the public is pretty good at this (via Gallup):

past election predictions.gif

What I found most interesting was the partisan breakdown for this year.  Basically, by large margins, partisans of both parties think their guy will win, but Democrats are nonetheless substantially more confident (86%) than Republicans (71%):

who will win the election, by party.gif

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State

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