Chart of the day

Obama’s 2008 performance versus latest estimates of 2012 performance (via Simon Jackman via the Monkey Cage):

Good news for Obama is that this still gives him an electoral college majority.  He’s only slipped below 50% in two states he won last time.  Bad news is that there’s an awful lot of states within the margin of error (not shown) of being below 50.  It is interesting to see just how different the slope of the line is for different states.

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About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

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