Silver forecast

Nate Silver put his prodigious statistical and analytical skills to work last week to come up with an incredibly-thorough forecast of the presidential race.  An absolute must for election junkies (then again, if you are an election junkie, you don’t exactly need me to tell you to read Nate Silver.  Lots of good stuff in there, but the part I enjoyed the most was the concept of “tipping point states,” i.e., the states that would be most likely to put Romney or Obama over the top in a very close election.  And, as of now, it certainly looks like we’re going to have a very close election.

As I was saying about North Carolina, Silver only gives it a <2% likelihood of actually determining the election results.  Silver’s analysis suggests that it is most likely to come down to Ohio or Virginia, with Colorado in a surprising third.  Ohio sure does seem to have a lock on being a truly key battleground state, but it’s nice to see things evolving some, with OH and CO in the mix and Florida actually further down the list.  Though, with its huge number of electoral votes, both campaigns will surely be campaigning as hard as ever in Florida.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State

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