SC exit polls, take two

I recall reading something about this in 538 some time ago, but I also think it is really interesting and noteworthy that Romney is not more popular among moderates.  He barely beats Gingrich in a category (1/3 the SC Republican electorate) in which you would think he’d dominate.  Not quite sure the implications of this, but does not seem like a good thing for Romney (then again, maybe it suggests he’s stronger among conservatives than we give him credit for).  The data:

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SC and the delusional Republican electorate

Via the NYT nice SC exit poll graphic:

I’m sorry, but anybody who thinks that Newt truly has a better chance than Romney of defeating Obama is truly politically delusional.

I still think you have to give overwhelming odds to Romney to win this whole thing, but the Political Scientist, political junkie, and Democrat in me all love that Newt’s performance in SC will keep this going for a bit yet and is making things so much more interesting than they looked like they would be just a week ago.

The Paul-less universe

Just thinking out loud here, but one thing I’ve really been wondering about is just how much Ron Paul’s campaign helps Mitt Romney.  Do we have much of a sense of where Paul’s primary voters would be going if he were not running?  I haven’t seen anything– not to suggest that it’s not necessarily out there.  I would imagine a fair number of Paul’s supporters (especially the young ones)  simply would not be voting in primaries if Paul wasn’t out there.  But a good number still would be.  I have a hard time seeing many of them supporting Romney– the ultimate establishment candidate– but I also have a hard time seeing most of them supporting any of the other guys.   Still, I can’t help but think that the large number of presumably non-Romney voters he’s sucking up can’t help but be good for Mitt.

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