More Newt!

The only thing better than a Gingrich surge would’ve been if Sarah Palin had actually run for the nomination.  Nice post by New Yorker’s John Cassidy on Newt’s resurrection.  Love this quote at the end:

If there is a message in all this, it is this: don’t listen to the pundits, don’t count your chickens, and don’t underestimate Newt. He might be a blowhard, a man of questionable morals, a corporate tool, and a race baiter, but he can handle himself in a street fight and he knows how to rile up the G.O.P base, especially in the South. He’s been doing it, as he frequently reminds us, for almost forty years.

Just to be clear, I’m still going to willfully underestimate Newt as a general election candidate.  As for the primaries, though, I–like Intrade voters– will keep an open mind for the moment.

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About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

3 Responses to More Newt!

  1. itchy says:

    This is a great example of InTrade being worthless. If InTrade was valuable as a predictor, wouldn’t Newt’s stock have gone up *before* the polls showed him gaining? InTrade seems like a trailing indicator, people just reacting to the latest news.

    By the way, there’s no way Newt will win the nomination. These are fun fluctuations, and it is more entertaining to see Romney have an opponent. But no way. Can I short Newt?

    • Steve Greene says:

      I wouldn’t say intrade is worthless, rather that one just needs to understand it’s limitations. I do think that when looking at any given candidate’s chances of being elected at any single point in time, it does prove more useful than the polls. E.g., the Herman Cain surge in the polls was never accompanied by one on Intrade. Rightly so. But, of course, there’s a lot of obvious error– the reason I lament my wife’s objection to letting me bet there.

  2. Steve Greene says:

    P.S. Yes, you can short Newt! (Or any candidate). You should totally do it.

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