Where I predict the Iowa Caucus Winner

And the winner is… Mitt Romney.  Or not.  As for how the results turn out tomorrow not, I really have no idea who will come out in the lead.  This race has truly been about as volatile as any I’ve seen.  That said, what I can say with confidence is that nobody who represents a truly strong, long-term threat to Mitt Romney will finish higher than Romney.  In the scoring system of presidential primaries, that’s a big Romney win.   I will say, it’s been nice to pay only glancing attention to most political headlines the past week while enjoying the time off with my family, but when it comes to endless speculation, which is really all we’ve had, I didn’t miss much at all.  There’s not been any actual news.  Fortunately that starts today and things get a lot more fun.

This is the kind of election season which makes an “expert” loathe to make any predictions, so I won’t.  I will say, though, that I just don’t see a logical path for anyone besides Romney to win the nomination.  It’s just that in a year like this, that’s not enough for me to predict that he will.

About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: