The big loser: the Iowa Caucus?

As I’m beginning to type this post, Romney and Santorum are in a dead heat and Paul is a close third.  Short version, two of the top three finishers in Iowa have no chance of winning the nomination, much less becoming president.  Meanwhile the presumed frontrunner can’t even quite crack a quarter of the vote.  So, what exactly is the value of the Iowa caucus anyway?  I cannot help but thinking it’s nuts to devote so much attention and resources of all kinds to a contest that can produce results that will clearly, ultimately, have minimal bearing on who the Republican nominee eventually will be.

I hope that Santorum does, in fact, end up being the “winner” (it’s a nail-biter with 92% in) because I think that result does more than anything to suggest how pointless this whole exercise can be.  Then again, it was only 4 years ago, that the Iowa Caucus propelled Obama onto his path to victory.  Nonetheless, the weight of the historical evidence, and this year especially, suggest that Iowa simply should not have this prominent role in our presidential election process.

Photo of the day

Going with one of my own.  Took this (while holding Sarah in one arm) when I woke up New Year’s morning and just thought the light fog at my sister’s house looked really cool.  Amazingly, this is comes from right in the middle of modern exurbia in Haymarket, VA

Where I predict the Iowa Caucus Winner

And the winner is… Mitt Romney.  Or not.  As for how the results turn out tomorrow not, I really have no idea who will come out in the lead.  This race has truly been about as volatile as any I’ve seen.  That said, what I can say with confidence is that nobody who represents a truly strong, long-term threat to Mitt Romney will finish higher than Romney.  In the scoring system of presidential primaries, that’s a big Romney win.   I will say, it’s been nice to pay only glancing attention to most political headlines the past week while enjoying the time off with my family, but when it comes to endless speculation, which is really all we’ve had, I didn’t miss much at all.  There’s not been any actual news.  Fortunately that starts today and things get a lot more fun.

This is the kind of election season which makes an “expert” loathe to make any predictions, so I won’t.  I will say, though, that I just don’t see a logical path for anyone besides Romney to win the nomination.  It’s just that in a year like this, that’s not enough for me to predict that he will.

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