Fun with 2012
November 3, 2011 Leave a comment
I started to read Nate Silver’s thorough piece on the 2012 election when I got sidetracked by this really fun interactive graphic. You can play with economic conditions and Obama’s approval rating to see how he would fare against different Republican rivals, according to a model Silver created. Here’s what the numbers look like when I set growth to 1.5% and Obama approval to 38%. Among other flaws, the fact that GDP growth and Obama approval can be manipulated independently pretty much makes no sense. Still, the fun and value in here is seeing how the different GOP candidates stack up:
As I’ve said, if the economy is bad enough, even Bachman can win– but it’s got to be really bad. Basically an actual recession. I also think it way overpredicts Herman Cain. Anyway, it does accurate suggest that the two candidates from the “sane Mormon” wing of the GOP are definitely most formidable in a general election. Anyway, it’s fun– have a go yourself.
Recent Comments