Exit polls

If you are one of those election poll junkies (I admit it, I am) John Judis has the best run-down I’ve seen of useful insights.  Here’s his summation:

In sum, this cycle saw a substantially older, whiter, and more conservative electorate than in 2008. This in and of itself explains a good deal of what happened in 2010. Voters in 2010 also said that they split their vote evenly between Obama and McCain in 2008 (45 to 45 percent), meaning that McCain voters were therefore strongly overrepresented in the 2010 electorate. Indeed, President Obama might not have been elected if only 2010 voters had voted in the 2008 election.

The clearest message from the exit polls is that voters backed the GOP because of the economy…

Political commentators are notoriously prone to over-interpreting election results. Strategic and policy decisions certainly made some difference in the magnitude of losses, but in a horrible economy it’s difficult to escape the reality that Democrats were poised to lose a significant number of seats no matter what they did.


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