Shrinking Republican minority

Ruy Texeira has a nice paper summarizing how demographic changes are very much working against the Republican party and what they should do about it.  Over at Yglesias, Ryan McNeely gives a nice summary.    Steve Greene summarizes McNeely  right here.   Long story short, Republicans are driving away minorities and college educated voters, both of which are only growing in the electorate.  Given my recent theme of Gender and Politics postings, I’ll excerpt McNeely’s nice point on the matter:

Another interesting finding is the significant growth rate of key subgroups of women who vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. I’ve found that there is a tendency to discuss “women” as if they are like any other interest group or constituency, but women are in fact the majority of voters. So, by definition, if more and more women identify as Democrats, then to cobble together a majority Republicans must lock in an even largerlead among male voters.

womenvoter

Texeira, who generally offers advice for Democrats, actually lays out a series of steps that would be wise for Republicans to take.  Tom Schaller summarizes them at 538.com.  Schaller remarks:

What’s interesting to me about most of Teixeira’s suggested changes is that the GOP is either not doing them, or doing something close to the opposite.

I think David Frum may be largely right in that the Republican party is going to drive itself off an ideological cliff.  When they win big in 2010 because of a bad economy and successful obstructionism, they’ll convince themselves it’s because of their conservative ideology and double-down on it even further.  Shouldn’t be hard, as most GOP member of Congress are breathtakingly out of touch with reality.  Democrats are surely in for some pain this Fall, but if Republicans don’t wise up– which they don’t seem to be doing– medium and long-range Democratic prospects look excellent.

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About Steve Greene
Professor of Political Science at NC State http://faculty.chass.ncsu.edu/shgreene

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