Obama in ’08?

It really seems stupid to suggest that based on a single caucus, no matter how much money and energy spent there, that Obama will be the Democratic nominee.  Yet, I'm increasingly thinking that is the case.  For as long as people have been asking me about the Democratic race, my answer has been essentially that Hillary has the best chance of any particular candidate, but that whatever person emerges as a clear challenger to Hillary will be the most likely winner.  I think that it is pretty safe to say now that Obama is that clear challenger.  I've read in a number of places lately, from both ordinary voters and political elites, saying that Hillary is “nobody's second choice.”  Even in her best national polls, Hillary does not top 50%.  I really think very few of that majority of Democrats who do not prefer Hillary already can be persuaded to her cause.  I would not be in the least bit surprised to see Hillary get the nomination, but if I were a betting man, I would put my money on Obama right now.

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