NC is tied?
October 31, 2012 Leave a comment
Although you cannot judge from just any one poll. This Elon poll highlighted in Nate Cohn’s post is done right (I actually read through the whole release). Called cell phones, etc.
How could North Carolina be close during a tied national election? Demographics. While Obama has bled white supporters nationally, his coalition was less dependent on whites in North Carolina than any other state. Demographic changes are sweeping the state at a fast enough rate to compensate for or potentially overwhelm declining turnout rates or losses among Obama ’08 voters.
While many have questioned whether Obama could still win North Carolina, the polls, demographics, registration numbers, and perhaps even the early voting numbers start to speak for themselves. Romney holds a 2 point lead in an average of North Carolina polls conducted since October 15, and that’s despite two automated surveys showing Romney ahead by more than 6 points (Elon, Civitas, and Groves (D) each call cell phones).
Cohn gives good reasons while NC should still be close. And based on advertising, the Romney camp clearly does not think they have it in the bag. It seems hard to imagine Romney winning the national popular vote while struggling so to win NC, but stranger things have happened. Still, I do think you have to consider the closeness in recent Florida and NC polls a big plus for Obama.