State of the race
October 21, 2012 Leave a comment
Jon Bernstein nicely summarizes the current state of the presidential race. Seems pretty spot-on to me:
Despite some premature spiking of the football from those who favor Mitt Romney, the race remains very close and could easily go either way. But at even odds right now, it’s pretty clear that your money belongs on Barack Obama…
However, as much as I am encouraging everyone to look mainly to the national vote, the closer we get to election day the more individual state polling is useful in a very close race. And right now, it does appear from the state polls that Obama would probably win the electoral college if the national vote were tied on Election Day. That means Romney might have to win by one or maybe even two percentage points nationally in order to get the electoral college votes he needs…
Bottom line: right now the candidates are dead even in the national vote, but it’s slightly trending towards Obama, perhaps beginning after the second debate or perhaps a bit before that. To the extent we can tell, the electoral college plays a bit better for Obama than it does for Romney, meaning that in a tie election overall it’s more likely that Obama wins. It’s a very close election, and no one should believe that it’s all over by any means. But there’s no question that I’d rather be in Obama’s position than in Romney’s going into the last debate and then the final weeks.
Yep. That’s the key conclusion. Romney can most definitely win this race, but right now, you’d much rather be in Obama’s position.