Still not tied

I had hardly posted that last post then I heard Cokie Robert’s analysis on NPR this morning saying “the race is tied.”  I love my Morning Edition, but damn do I hate Cokie Roberts.  She’s just the epitome of un-thinking, conventional wisdom journalism.  She even referenced the RCP average in saying the race is tied.  It’s one thing to say that you are statistically tied based on a single close poll (I can forgive that), but the whole point of the RCP average is that it is much more sensitive and a 1.3 lead is undoubtedly a small lead, but a lead nonetheless and not a tie. Throw out Rasumussen like anybody serious about polling actually would, and it’s even better.  Again, not saying this race is really close, but its pretty clear that A) many journalists don’t actually understand this polling average thing; and B) even if they did, they would really prefer a tied race because it’s a better story.

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